Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

35 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

So, we finally get the cold shot that the models hinted at for the past 3 or 4 weeks and the moisture suddenly vanishes. Classic stuff there. Let us see what happens though.  You know where I am placing my bets.

It didn't vanish though. It's throwing waves at us one after the other from both the NS and the STJ. No the OP models aren't showing the timing and placement of features matching up perfectly right now, but verbatim the GFS has 2 suppressed snow storms with a rain storm in between with an H5 look that doesn't match its ensemble. Suppression is always a risk but it's almost always over modeled to some degree. Euro was extremely close to giving the SE coast a nice hit at 12z. We all know these things can adjust hundreds of miles inside day 7.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say it'd probably be wise to wait and see how the next 2 storm systems this week impact and setup the Atlantic stream flow for next week. Just the slightest change in the fast flow exit off the coast, along with better dig from the NS energy, could increase our chances of a phase further west and a big dog for most of the forum. Without that, late bloomers will probably be the norm for the first part of the new pattern. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

It's silly to expect models to pick up small nuances that are currently over Mongolia and track them to form SE snowstorms. 

Harsh but fair

:lol:

i like the idea of the wave next week diving well south but question whether it will be far enough west. Need that trough in the NE Pac to quit impinging on our western ridge.  The setup is close enough for now anyway.  Maybe happy hour will throw us a bone 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Long range on the 12 zeez wasn’t too kind. CMC Ens was the coldest, but less western ridging and not as cold on the GEFS and EPS. The western ridging is kind of a must have given the unrelenting +AO. The split flow and southern stream look remains though which is good

32" of snow in Manteo, 20" of snow in Kill Devil hills, nothing here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy guys I'm patiently waiting or at least I thought I was, this is crazy.  I think well maybe next week, maybe the next week and then maybe the next week,  wow we're gonna run out of weeks.  We had a glimmer of hope this week on a couple of models but as usual things are lost , not showing up.  I'm still trying to be optimistic. :snowwindow:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Boy guys I'm patiently waiting or at least I thought I was, this is crazy.  I think well maybe next week, maybe the next week and then maybe the next week,  wow we're gonna run out of weeks.  We had a glimmer of hope this week on a couple of models but as usual things are lost , not showing up.  I'm still trying to be optimistic. :snowwindow:

I’ve been assured, bitter cold is coming

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well It looks like the cold is going to get here along with suppression but that's common here. I remember one winter storm 2013 maybe? Winter storm watches to the south of me and it kept coming north until we were all in it so it's not impossible. I will take the look we are getting now on the models and take my chances.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Well It looks like the cold is going to get here along with suppression but that's common here. I remember one winter storm 2013 maybe? Winter storm watches to the south of me and it kept coming north until we were all in it so it's not impossible. I will take the look we are getting now on the models and take my chances.

Agreed. I'd rather have a long shot chance, and bet on climo bringing things back towards the southern Appalachians, than no chance at all like we've had in this torch pattern. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Any chance that the models aren't really showing a huge threat due to convective feedback? 

The 500mb wave has to dive down and bottom out farther to the southwest or nothing else matters. Most, but not all, simulations dive the wave down too far east.  Other possibility is getting a southern stream wave to streak in a couple days later and prior to the cold high retreating off the NE coast

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy ,,,,Quite,,,, :facepalm:

47 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

There remains lots of potential in the next several weeks.  The 06Z GFS has cool to seasonal temperatures in NC for the entirety of its run following Friday.  There is also lots of opportunities for precipitations.  The trick is matching the two together.  I like our chances.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...