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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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MJO Forecast trend on the GEFS...

db92coY.gif

 

Quality post from @donsutherland1 (recommended reading) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52870-january-2020-general-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5418232

 

"Key Points (from Don):

1. A preponderance of data is pointing to the return of winter in the East.

2. January could close with a sustained cold pattern that could continue into at least part of February."

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4 hours ago, griteater said:

Best run I've seen of the GEFS in the extended.  Core of the cold air is in the lower 48

VoJwSxG.png

SAu67rb.png

That's beautiful right there.  GEFS has officially joined the party.  Bonus: cold and wet.  

Hopefully the EPS didn't decide to quit overnight and take its ball home. 

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right?  How are the GEPS looking?

Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish!

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Someone posted his comments somewhere, he’s all aboard the arctic express coming up, forget how wrong he’s been all of fall and first of winter! Got a little Mississippi leg hound in em, if he ever starts, it’s just better to let him finish!

What was his forecast for the first have of winter?

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Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now...

I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. 

Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. 

GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30

As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now...

I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. 

Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. 

GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30

As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol

Thanks for stopping by Bob..enjoy your posts mucho!

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5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Wait till you see the latest eps run. It continues to look better with each run!

Just took a peek at it myself and wow... Not only the epo ridge flipping the pattern but beginning to hint at blocking to. All the while with still above average precip. The pessimist in me is trying hard to keep my hopes down but things are looking very exciting. 

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5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Anyone know if any GEFS and EPS members are showing snow during their runs?

GEFS mean. 1585494543_download(2).thumb.png.dd0fd6389a12e62b27ab3d244d6b0e22.png

All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some. 

 

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CPC mentions the nagging +NAO...I know we've seen cases in the past where we get the big western ridge, but the cold isn't able to drive way south in the means due to a +NAO.

 

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

The forecast 500-hPa circulation (blend of the global ensemble means) is consistent with the forecast during the preceding Week-2 period, showing the evolution from a negative PNA pattern to a negative NPO-WP pattern that favors more widespread below-normal temperatures over the CONUS. While this is broadly consistent with forecast MJO propagation, the forecast circulation fields also indicate the persistence of the low-frequency positive NAO pattern that has been observed over the past several weeks. This continued +NAO is not consistent with forecast MJO evolution.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

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