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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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46 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting...  Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us,  probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year.  

Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5.  The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.  

What I'd like to see happen is something similar out west to what the GFS shows:

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_39.thumb.png.e24936df665e5e10c49d961b84ba9bf9.png

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_47.thumb.png.29bab1ebe5da1db3c1aa11723661a0b9.png

 

Have that low pinch off underneath the block to its north.  The Euro moves in that direction by 240, but it doesn't look as good.  It would turn into a good pattern for the east with a continued active STJ and cold highs dropping out of the north.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

I'm waiting to see it..

 

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out

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8 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Now let's all hope the gfs is right! Looks like a great pattern for sure. Would like to see the euro get on board with the ensembles

Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. :D

Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale.  Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. :D

Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale.  Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. 

Lol yea it excites me a little but not buying in quite yet. There are lots of signals pointing this in the right direction. Nice ridge building in Pacific northwest. Some blocking in the NE and the southern stream remains a fire hose..ingredients are there IF its right.

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3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

You look at op models over ensembles?

No but it's another piece of the puzzle. I think the GFS is bringing the colder pattern in too early by 3 or 4 days at least. It won't be until Around MLK day or later when we could see a decent winter pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

No but it's another piece of the puzzle. I think the GFS is bringing the colder pattern in too early by 3 or 4 days at least. It won't be until Around MLK day or later when we could see a decent winter pattern. 

Probably not, but the changes are taking place well before that in the Pacific.  It's under 10 days now and has been shown on the ensembles for several days. I think chances are better than normal we get into a wintry period. 

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