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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Don’t sleep on the 7th! GFS is still interesting on 12z! Cold looks about as good as we can get, moisture is around...

What am I missing?  Moisture looks anemic.  Thats the coldest 2mm temps I could find and those only last for 3 hours.

What.JPG

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Wish the GFS and Euro weren't so far apart though. For here in North GA that looks good if it can just get any moisture far enough north. Would be happy with just a tenth of an inch or two liquid from a small finger of precip sliding west to east. But Euro is just a standard frontal passage with a warmup ahead of it. 

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2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Interesting map, but I wish it was more specific.  Shows portions of Wake County at 5 feet, and I really don't think that's true...  Most of Wake would be 1-3 feet over that time frame I would think.  

That's only a 6 inch per year average. It's probably pretty close and shows the gradient there well.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

I would put my location (right on the Granville/Wake line) at or greater than 5 feet from 2010 until now. I've been lucky and received big storms whereas folks in south Wake have missed out.  

That's true.  I am looking at it through south wake lens.  The gradient is ridiculous.  Noway we have been anywhere close to 5 feet.

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14 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

I wonder what the next decade will look like.

57BC116D-605B-4572-95FD-9CED37530DB1.jpeg

I've had over 9' of snow in the last two seasons, and according to long time residents they've both been below normal years for my neighborhood.  Cool to look at but I seriously question the accuracy. 

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2 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I've had over 9' of snow in the last two seasons, and according to ling time residents they've both been below normal years for my neighborhood.  Cool to look at but I seriously question the accuracy. 

I’d like to see a closer look at the mountains, hard to map out ridge tops and higher elevations that far zoomed out and smoothed out.  Puts me at around 2’ a year which seems to be correct lately from what I’ve gathered but also less than there used to be from what I’ve heard from residents too.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Looking forward to getting past the half-way point in Jan.  Should see some signs of life showing up pretty soon.  Somewhere near the beginning of H2 January, we'll be tracking our first legitimate threat.

12z GFS is showing a quicker return of cold in the LR. The below image is for the 15th. It shows the cold (2m temps) pouring in; but what I like is it also shows the effects of the mountains (always slows our low level cold).

 

jjjj.jpg

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46 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

This weather pattern is toxic

Only if you sit around all day analyzing it.  If you just enjoy what you have it ain't too shabby!  I cant tell you how much work I got done over the holiday period that I didn't get done during our extended October summer.  If Mother Nature is giving me my fall in January I would be perfectly fine getting my winter in March.

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19 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Only if you sit around all day analyzing it.  If you just enjoy what you have it ain't too shabby!  I cant tell you how much work I got done over the holiday period that I didn't get done during our extended October summer.  If Mother Nature is giving me my fall in January I would be perfectly fine getting my winter in March.

Amen to this!  Bitching and moaning about it wont change it.  Heck, I've really enjoyed the 60 degree weather, and look forward to it changing later in January!..

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12z GFS is showing a quicker return of cold in the LR. The below image is for the 15th. It shows the cold (2m temps) pouring in; but what I like is it also shows the effects of the mountains (always slows our low level cold).
 
jjjj.thumb.jpg.2b44b776284b04deea46c828fe1af102.jpg

Thanks for getting us back on topic, Falls.


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