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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

What is a coastal cutter?

Either a, great "Snow Storm, OR Pastebomb" for Us Coastal Folks..

Mostly, starting & ending in a very cold rain.. With snow in between.. 

Not much for ya'll inland folks (except on the "outskirts" that don't get warm-nosed.. ) Like inland Pender County etc, etc,, 

Works out Awesome East & South of I-95 & North & West, of Highway 17.... (Sometimes)

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18 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

In all my years I have never heard of a coastal cutter

You not the only one.

I've heard of a lakes cutter, app runner. 

But not a coastal cutter. 

That's still a Miller A or B or hybrid. 

Tryed to look up Jan 2018.

But https://climate.ncsu.edu/tools/wxevents changed and no as informative and in depth as once it was.

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5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

WSLS Roanoke:  When it gets super cold in Alaska, we usually have to "watch out" 10 days afterward. The ridge that has supplied us with warmth will buckle soon, supplying a gateway for a sliver of that cold air to come down. Looks like after the first weekend of January https://t.co/AEc5fw3byv

Who will be right? TV Mets or Mid Atlantic weenies?? Hmmmmm....

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22 hours ago, FLweather said:

You not the only one.

I've heard of a lakes cutter, app runner. 

But not a coastal cutter. 

That's still a Miller A or B or hybrid. 

Tryed to look up Jan 2018.

But https://climate.ncsu.edu/tools/wxevents changed and no as informative and in depth as once it was.

As @Orangeburgwx said, and others, added,, a  *Coastal Cutter* , something like THIS! ;)

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/christmassnow1989

Again, the GFS AND other Models are flouting a "brief" , though, robust cold shot 6~8th.. 

Can the Coastal counties make something work? 

@Wow, What's you're thinking, (IF) the piece of LP get's left behind? 

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20 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Writing is on the wall, no storm by January 15th: winter cancel

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

February into early march is prime time for anything down there I believe.  I lived below Columbia for 30 years and most memorable storms (that I recall) fall into that time frame...not sure what climatology says.

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5 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

ECMWF appears to be showing a storm and plenty of cold on hour 240. Anyone else see that?

Looks coolish, not necessarily cold.  Which to be frank, is a still win for me.  I love snow, but if I can't have it, I will take cool and dry.  I hate winter torches.

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6 hours ago, Buckethead said:

February into early march is prime time for anything down there I believe.  I lived below Columbia for 30 years and most memorable storms (that I recall) fall into that time frame...not sure what climatology says.

I've lived in the Upstate of SC all my life which has spanned six and a half decades, and I can say just from memory that I've seen probably more, and definitely bigger snowstorms in February than I have in January, and several big ones in March....late March. So for somebody to jump off the cliff on December 28th is quite astonishing to me.

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17 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

When it gets inside 24 hours, let me know!

But seriously, atleast some cold is showing up and storms keep rolling through, maybe they will meet up at some point

verbatim, it’s not cold enough for snow, outside the mountains, but a pretty good setup

It’s not even cold enough for snow IN the mountains :(

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1 minute ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

I’d love to see the EPS members in the coming days. Tail end of today’s 12z Euro looked intriguing.

The 540 line is in KY. I’m trying to find something positive in the long range, atleast no 60s and 70s, but the GFS looks to have backed off it’s extreme cold around the 7th or 8th

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Status report from MA thread: Cool gradient pattern setting up day 9 - 10.  If they get lucky they could end up on the right side of the gradient, but generally pessimistic based on previous gradient patterns.  Verbatim, the pattern setting up after day 12 or so on all three major ensembles, is the kind that makes women faint, strong men weep, and dogs hide under the beds.

My own extrapolation for us: no reason to get excited about any winter weather potential for the SE.  Should hopefully have a couple of days cool/coldish days but little hope for anything else.

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