Panic Room

[raindancewx]

On 2/11/2020 at 9:18 PM, raindancewx said:

The key period for New England is March 14-20. If you're going to get a big snow storm, I think it should be when the pattern that repeats the early December Boston snow repeats. Prior to that, there should be big rains/snows in the Southwest from a huge burst of subtropical moisture if the pattern continues to repeat. Might be too warm for a big snow event in New England given the warmth in the pattern without help from the -NAO though.

We had near record rains/snows throughout the Southwest November 20-29, so that should happen about March 4-13 if the cycle repeats. March 4th is actually, over the past century, the second snowiest day of the year (by frequency) for large areas of New Mexico and the Southwest. We'll see.

 

The models are now showing what amounts to record rains for 3/8 to 3/12 in the Southwest, which is literally the repeat of the late November pattern. We'll see if it verifies, but it is supported by the huge SOI crashes in late February that were similar to what happened in November. That 32 point drop is going to spit out a huge storm, it's comparable to last year ahead of the bomb cyclone and the drop pre-Blizzard 1993.

1 Mar 2020	1008.31	1007.85	-17.47	-3.09	-3.24
29 Feb 2020	1007.73	1006.35	-16.14	-2.61	-2.97
28 Feb 2020	1009.06	1003.90	2.02	-1.81	-2.75
27 Feb 2020	1011.55	1003.50	15.90	-1.48	-2.76
26 Feb 2020	1013.13	1005.05	16.04	-1.72	-2.98

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The models are now showing what amounts to record rains for 3/8 to 3/12 in the Southwest, which is literally the repeat of the late November pattern. We'll see if it verifies, but it is supported by the huge SOI crashes in late February that were similar to what happened in November. That 32 point drop is going to spit out a huge storm, it's comparable to last year ahead of the bomb cyclone and the drop pre-Blizzard 1993.

1 Mar 2020	1008.31	1007.85	-17.47	-3.09	-3.24
29 Feb 2020	1007.73	1006.35	-16.14	-2.61	-2.97
28 Feb 2020	1009.06	1003.90	2.02	-1.81	-2.75
27 Feb 2020	1011.55	1003.50	15.90	-1.48	-2.76
26 Feb 2020	1013.13	1005.05	16.04	-1.72	-2.98

No repeat of the SNE snows...yet.

[MJO812]

Wow it looks like I might end up below 4 inches.  This would be the worst winter ever. 

[raindancewx]

Here is a look at winter (left) - my Spring analogs from February +2F were intended to match winter/March, and that looks promising so far. 

I was generally 0-2F too cold for highs in the West in my forecast, with the area between the Mississippi and the Appalachians 6-8F too cold. Rest of the US generally 2-4F too cold. In a weighted (spatial) sense, I'd say I was around 3.5F too cold nationally. I did warm up the Northern Plains from my analogs because (I said this back in the Fall) back to the 1890s, there have never been four severely cold winters up there. They had a slightly cold February, but pretty warm for the Dakotas/Montana this year, unlike the last three. I did not have the South, West Coast, or New England cold - the pattern in February was almost identical to my seasonal winter blend from October, but it didn't show up enough in the other months.

[snowman21]

This season will certainly put a dent in the snow climatology. Five inches and just one day of snow cover.

[Hoth]

On 1/23/2020 at 10:21 PM, Hoth said:

So can this thread do double duty with Wuhan virus hysteria when the time comes? Because at least that is looking pretty bullish in the modeling.

Bump.

[NorEastermass128]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Bump.

The lack of good info is troubling. Hoping we can bumble our way into this not being as bad as it can be. It will probably be pure luck if we do. 

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The lack of good info is troubling. Hoping we can bumble our way into this not being as bad as it can be. It will probably be pure luck if we do. 

Fingers crossed it has seasonality like the flu, but we can't assume. Our government seems to be intentionally downplaying the risk, which is only going to make this more likely to explode out of control in the coming month or two.

[raindancewx]

Lot of rain for the SW recently...like late November, and now a big Nor'easter moving near the bench mark. Check and check, for the late Nov / early Dec pattern.