ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a sample size of 2. Lol. Yeah. I don’t get the connection. Even if it works out this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's not really a traditional analog setup - the blends for the NAO/PDO/AMO I use are regression based from initial conditions, and I try to find years that match the output of the regression. As a blend, a polynomial regression of the NAO for May minus April and September minus March accounts for about 50% of the variability in the NAO winter average for the past 30 years. It worked last year too - 1975 was similar to 2018 for May-Apr and Sept-Mar and produced good results for the NAO in winter. When I do a seasonal outlook, I'm essentially using formulas to predict the key variables...and then finding years that match (as a blend) on all of them. For this past winter the process selected three good analogs, 1992-93, 1953-54, 2018-19, but I weighted them too little in conjunction with the bad analogs. Those three should have been about 90% of the analog weighting, instead of the 50% I gave them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 At what point do we change the name from panic room to acceptance room? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: At what point do we change the name from panic room to acceptance room? There was very little panic this season. Just comfortably numb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 This season sobered a lot of us up and reminded us why we have the climo we do. I averaged about 45" the past 5 years but i know my climo is really like 35". Brought back horrific memories of 2001-2002 as well. I'll never forget that season, as shit as this one was, it still doesn't come close. Panic, Denial, Anger, Acceptance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 No one has been perfect, but @raindancewx has been as good as anyone over the course of the past two seasons. It would be nice to have him on our side next year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 1:28 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one has been perfect, but @raindancewx has been as good as anyone over the course of the past two seasons. It would be nice to have him on our side next year. Lol He was way off on snowfall totals around here and his March call isn't going to pan out. He was also way too cold for a majority of the country particularly the central US. He did a lot better last season imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: He was way off on snowfall totals around here and his March call isn't going to pan out. He was also way too cold for a majority of the country particularly the central US. He did a lot better last season imo. Well, show me who predicted a virtual snowfall shutout for Jersey...even @Isotherm didn't. Lets let March happen before grading it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, show me who predicted a virtual snowfall shutout for Jersey...even @Isotherm didn't. Lets let March happen before grading it. Yes, my snowfall ranges, while indicating well below normal snowfall for NYC, were not sufficiently low. The ranges will be close for the Mid-Atlantic with a lower end of 5". That said, as I posted the below in the NY forum last week, I am very happy with the snowfall anomaly distribution versus reality nationwide, i.e., the anomalies and demarcation lines between above and below. I will do a full verification of my winter outlook later in March. The pattern, indices, and overall temps went very well, but the largest issue was I didn't go nearly warm enough magnitude wise. So that will dent the overall grade. Nonetheless, this winter was back on track of hits for me, following last winter's disaster. Unfortunately, it appears the end of Feb/early March window of opportunity will not be working out for most of the Northeast. Maybe there is one more window prior to the end of the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Isotherm said: Yes, my snowfall ranges, while indicating well below normal snowfall for NYC, were not sufficiently low. The ranges will be close for the Mid-Atlantic with a lower end of 5". That said, as I posted the below in the NY forum last week, I am very happy with the snowfall anomaly distribution versus reality nationwide, i.e., the anomalies and demarcation lines between above and below. I will do a full verification of my winter outlook later in March. The pattern, indices, and overall temps went very well, but the largest issue was I didn't go nearly warm enough magnitude wise. So that will dent the overall grade. Nonetheless, this winter was back on track of hits for me, following last winter's disaster. Unfortunately, it appears the end of Feb/early March window of opportunity will not be working out for most of the Northeast. Maybe there is one more window prior to the end of the season. I hedge towards some late season action, so I may take a hit for that if nothing changes. Much better call than last season, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I'm fairly happy with my snowfall map, but I can't verify it for a while, the Plains / Rockies will keep getting snow into April or May, so it's too early. It's hard for me to imagine Philadelphia really finishing under an inch - that's real rare. So I wouldn't be shocked with some kind of correction. I think there was a fairly big April snow when I was a kid in NJ in April 2000 after a very warm winter - something like that could help. Generally, I was way too cold Midwest. I did have the South & New England warm, although +2, not +5, so too cold still. For Albuquerque and most of the Western third of the US, plus the Northern Plains, I'll probably finish within 2F of the observed high, but it's small potatoes with Chicago, St. Louis, etc, being 5-8F colder than what I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, show me who predicted a virtual snowfall shutout for Jersey...even @Isotherm didn't. Lets let March happen before grading it. This is true, I don't think many could've imagined nearly zero snowfall for places like Philly. Iso did well with his forecast anomalies and I think everyone was too cold but again you don't ever forecast +5 or better anomalies for the entire winter. Early March preview looks bleak with today's weeklies. Doubt that turns around much. Kinda happy about that as it breaks the cold Nov/March & warm winter cycle. Hopefully it'll mean a colder met winter soon. Overall much better forecasting year for many (unless you're JB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I think it is time to cancel my Stormvista membership. What a crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: This is true, I don't think many could've imagined nearly zero snowfall for places like Philly. Iso did well with his forecast anomalies and I think everyone was too cold but again you don't ever forecast +5 or better anomalies for the entire winter. Early March preview looks bleak with today's weeklies. Doubt that turns around much. Kinda happy about that as it breaks the cold Nov/March & warm winter cycle. Hopefully it'll mean a colder met winter soon. Overall much better forecasting year for many (unless you're JB). DT sucked again, too. Forecasting extreme anomalies is risky...I pulled it off in February 2018, but it needs to be a big signal. I wasn't as confident of an extremely warm mid season, this year, but I was warm with a quick and proficient PV recovery after the fast start. I felt there was the chance of a less hostile arctic/atlantic regime setting up late, but that looks dubious now. I was all over the RNA. Decent forecast for me, but a crap ending will put a dent into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 CFS has a nice warm March for New England. This pattern is actually pretty close to what I expected for April - it's a northward version of the mid-Dec to mid-Jan pattern. I had an area of +5 for the NE/MW. We'll see what happens. New Mexico hasn't had a cold March since 2010, so I'm skeptical this is the correct look for March. Half of our warming in the last 100 years is in March (as opposed to the 1/12th you'd expect). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, raindancewx said: CFS has a nice warm March for New England. This pattern is actually pretty close to what I expected for April - it's a northward version of the mid-Dec to mid-Jan pattern. I had an area of +5 for the NE/MW. We'll see what happens. New Mexico hasn't had a cold March since 2010, so I'm skeptical this is the correct look for March. Half of our warming in the last 100 years is in March (as opposed to the 1/12th you'd expect). Not too dissimilar from 2012 in the northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 6.8" in 2 hours of lake effect isn't that notable...it's heavy, but pretty routine in LES bands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Metfan is just discovering LES. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 This winter has been remarkably average for Albuquerque - near average precipitation, near average snow, near average winter high, even the number of cold mornings is near average. 6.5" / 1.17" / 49.7F / 94-95 (pending 2/29) those are total snow Oct-Feb, DJF precipitation, Oct-Feb lows <=32F. Here are the 1931-32 to 2018-19 year averages for the same period: 7.5" / 1.30" / 49.5F/ 92 (arguably 93 in a leap year) For the past 30-years, the number of freezing lows is pretty high (83 is average for Oct-Feb), and the snow is closer to average (6.9"). Average high for the 30-years ending 2018-19 is 50.3F, so a bit cold in the context of recent winters, but also a bit dry (1.33"). The SOI did see a massive one-day crash yesterday as a Typhoon/tropical storm moved away from Darwin, Australia. Will be interesting to see if there is a big storm around March 9th in the SW. Typically, after a 10 point or higher SOI crash in one-two days, the zone between LA & Amarillo, from 30-37N will see a big storm in 10 days. Several of the SOI crashes preceded huge storms in the SW US and Mexico last November, and that was the start of the transition to the (brief) snowier New England pattern. I think there needs to be a period of enhancement of the subtropical jet, and then if there is a big SOI spike when it is enhanced, there should be a big Nor'easter or two, probably mid month. This is last November. The heavy Lake Effect snow is somewhat similar to the Nov 12 event 2019 305 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 2019 306 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 2019 307 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 (crash 307-308 before the great mid-month Blue Norther) https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-11-08-arctic-cold-outbreak-mid-november-record-midwest-south-east 2019 308 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 2019 309 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 2019 310 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 2019 311 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 2019 312 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 2019 313 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 2019 314 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 (similar to 2/27-2/28 SOI crash of ~14 in one day. 10-days ahead of a huge wet Nov storm in the SW) 2019 315 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 2019 316 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 2019 317 1012.54 1011.25 -10.12 2019 318 1012.31 1010.45 -6.49 2019 319 1012.81 1009.85 0.51 2019 320 1013.57 1010.40 1.84 2019 321 1012.24 1010.80 -9.17 (this three day period preceded one of the biggest SW snowstorms in November in the last 100 years) 2019 322 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36 2019 323 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36 2019 324 1008.52 1008.75 -19.79 2019 325 1010.15 1009.10 -11.65 2019 326 1012.20 1009.70 -2.42 2019 327 1012.34 1010.10 -4.08 (this down then up then down period preceded the New England snows early December). 2019 328 1010.52 1009.35 -10.88 2019 329 1009.94 1009.20 -13.62 2019 330 1010.12 1008.55 -8.34 2019 331 1010.39 1008.65 -7.26 2019 332 1010.38 1008.95 -9.23 2019 333 1010.55 1008.20 -3.38 2019 334 1011.34 1008.40 0.38 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 19 hours ago, MJO812 said: My brother's in-laws live up in Tupper Lake. They had a two foot pack before this storm and got another two feet from the LE. Talk about utopia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 An ice cream truck just drove by.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I was there. I love me a blizzard, but LES is amazing in its own right. what did you do there? just walk around in the snow? did you stay at a hotel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: An ice cream truck just drove by.. Ice cream is delicious any time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I feel like this would be marginally fun unless I went there with a bunch of friends and went plowing or snowmobiling or some activity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 I'm glad you had a good time and enjoyed it don't get me wrong. I would have too. But there's something about a very localized snow event while everyone else is in the duldrums of a depressing brown winter with nothing going on, it just seems i dunno, sad. Part of what i like when we get a huge nor'easter that smashes everyone down to the coast with epic snow is that we are all talking about and we are all enjoying it. A big part of it to me is just having like the state shut down, it's on the news, everyones talking about it. It disrupts and changes the entire landscape for everyone. Some family and friends tell me if i love snow so much then just move to alaska or the mountains of the west. And i've lived in South Lake Tahoe for a while. Snow there was just, i dunno boring. There wasn't this huge 960mb low passing over the BM with blizzard conditions and a beautiful looking radar. The radar always looked lame with Sierra blocking the scan. The snow was expected by everyone and you couldn't really see far as there were pines and hills surrounding everything. Also another weird thing i noted at 6,000ft+ is that it constantly snowed at 33-36F. And i mean steady SN at above freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 On 2/26/2020 at 8:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Not too dissimilar from 2012 in the northeast I may get two of the old VWs painted this month if that happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: An ice cream truck just drove by.. Playing terrible music to lure the children to the creeper in the truck no doubt. When I hear them coming I usually fire up the old Cub Cadet to drown it out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now