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NorEastermass128
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34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What is so haplessly aggravating about all is is that, outside of the most favored upslope areas the atmosphere is finding ways to pork all of New England in the heart of winter. 

And most of the CONUS + Europe. Everyone gets a torch this year.

But hey at least Alaska's finally cold.

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I'm expecting a compromise between the 3.5 month lag timing analog for February (Oct 16-Nov 15), and similar US weather/solar/ocean/SOI conditions (1937, 1954, 1993, 1993, 2005, 2005, 2019). The top SOI blend for NDJ is likely 1936-37, 1992-93, 2004-05. US conditions in Dec/Jan look a lot like 1953-54, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2018-19.

iD3DcJV.png

What does that compromise look like? This - and I warmed it up another 2F because not many areas of the US have snow cover right now.

VnQi525.png

The CFS does seem to be heading in the right direction toward the cold Central idea. There have been hints on some of the methods I used for a pretty impressive cold dump into the West mid-month. That should bleed East, but run out of time to make the east cold by the 29th. That's my general idea. Most of the NE will probably catch up to near average during the transitions into/out of the warm pattern, but obviously, finishing below average is most likely for most NE zones.

weBxrKB.png

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46 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Steve Dimartino posted on twitter how he is getting  threats because this winter has been awful.

He isnt the only one who is getting bashed for their winter forecast.  Plenty of meteorologists  are also getting the same thing.

 

Wtf is wrong with people

Lock...them...up.

We still have roughly 45 days to score a good/big event or two. Yea it’s been downright awful but we just gotta get lucky that a shortwave finally listens to Jimmy and does the unthinkable. 

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The data for today is down currently, but through the first 60 days of winter, it looks like the fourth/fifth warmest winter for Boston in the past 100 years.

Boston's lowest low for 10/1-01/29 is 14 degrees - 2nd warmest minimum for that period back to the 1870s.

Finishing with only 16 lows 32F or less for January is kind of impressive too for Boston - fewest since 1932. My analogs had lows around +5F for New England, that may end up as the right idea for the winter. Currently +6.2F in Boston against the 1951-2010 average low for the first 60-days of winter. I think even out here in the desert, record warmth for average low in Dec-Jan is right around 30F.

 

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This winter is worse than 2001-2002. At least I had some snow cover. My snow cover this winter lasted a few hours. 

I miss the winters where you had to walk in the street because the sidewalks were buried with snow. I also miss the winters where the oceans use to freeze over . Those were the days.

I feel like I live in the south.

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The data for today is down currently, but through the first 60 days of winter, it looks like the fourth/fifth warmest winter for Boston in the past 100 years.

Boston's lowest low for 10/1-01/29 is 14 degrees - 2nd warmest minimum for that period back to the 1870s.

Finishing with only 16 lows 32F or less for January is kind of impressive too for Boston - fewest since 1932. My analogs had lows around +5F for New England, that may end up as the right idea for the winter. Currently +6.2F in Boston against the 1951-2010 average low for the first 60-days of winter. I think even out here in the desert, record warmth for average low in Dec-Jan is right around 30F.

 

Boston continues to have issues with their sensor. It would probably be good to use a blend of other first order stations and KMQE to help verify. 

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8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

This winter is worse than 2001-2002. At least I had some snow cover. My snow cover this winter lasted a few hours. 

I miss the winters where you had to walk in the street because the sidewalks were buried with snow. I also miss the winters where the oceans use to freeze over . Those were the days.

I feel like I live in the south.

Snow cover? Maybe for a couple hours. The one and only storm you got (and myself) was Jan 19-20th 2002 aka the Foxborough Storm. The day after was about 40F and then got into the 50s and 60s for the next several days. I'm guessing whatever snow fell overnight that night was gone by about noon the next day. It was in CT.

The only season worse than 01-02 in the past 150 or so years of records in NYC is 72-73. Only 2.8" was measured that entire season.

If you dont get a flake more than it might be just as bad as 01-02 for you but that season felt like no winter at all. It was warm all the time, there were never any storm threats at all to speak of. I don't think this one will end as bad as that for NYC. You've also had less going into Feb than this season, 06-07, 07-08, 94-95, 92-93 and 91-92.

snow88sCapture.PNG

snow88Capture.PNG

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