Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable. Could be 3-4 days of A/C and one with some heavy shoveling for you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely going to be at least 3-4 days of A/C and one with some heavy shoveling for my sons. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Have been following the possible light snow event Friday AM pre-dawn. Precip making it over the mountains seems like a long shot but keep seeing more and more support for it. Also 84 Hour Nam also looks like we are about to get QPF thrown over us Friday night but there is nothing I see to stop the stuff from heading east by north east so light if anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Horst weighs in on the weekend: (NOAA is scheduling a dropsonde this evening) "This data will aid initialization of forecast models...and hopefully increase confidence in weekend storm details along the East coast. The current pattern bias favors a light rain-snow mix in the low lands and big cities, but some snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!" #RemainCalm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst weighs in on the weekend: (NOAA is scheduling a dropsonde this evening) "This data will aid initialization of forecast models...and hopefully increase confidence in weekend storm details along the East coast. The current pattern bias favors a light rain-snow mix in the low lands and big cities, but some snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!" #RemainCalm Horst showing any inclination of a storm is a very good sign to me. Let's not lose what we have here and build on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Horst showing any inclination of a storm is a very good sign to me. Let's not lose what we have here and build on it. The 18z EPS also moved a little back west & has a good cluster of low tracks that could deliver some snow this weekend. The final track might not be known on this one until sometime Friday until all of the players are on the field. It wouldn’t take much to bring this back to a decent light to moderate event for many of us just like several models have shown on & off since late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Sure not looking great for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Nam with a strange evolution snow shield for lsv this weekend. Snows down near the big cites of the ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, pawatch said: Sure not looking great for the weekend. That sort of matches the 12z Euro today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z EPS also moved a little back west & has a good cluster of low tracks that could deliver some snow this weekend. The final track might not be known on this one until sometime Friday until all of the players are on the field. It wouldn’t take much to bring this back to a decent light to moderate event for many of us just like several models have shown on & off since late last week. I agree with you and in reality this is the case w/ most events. 0z NAM looks like it too is close enough (extrapolated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That sort of matches the 12z Euro today. But it didn’t match the 18z EPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 It’s going to end up a 37 degree light rain day Saturday huh. A miserable one to spend at arlington National cemetery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, canderson said: It’s going to end up a 37 degree light rain day Saturday huh. A miserable one to spend at arlington National cemetery. Sounds about right from what I’m looking at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The only model right now that gives us a chance for weekend snow is the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The only model right now that gives us a chance for weekend snow is the 6z NAM. I've been watching the flow and looking for signs of better looks. Oz GFS had more dig and better ridging out ahead as did the 6z but its a little late to do us enough good. I hate wish casting, but IF we can get that to occur just a bit earlier, it might yank this thing north a bit more. I mention it because it still has a chance of happening as the NS energy still off the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I've been watching the flow and looking for signs of better looks. Oz GFS had more dig and better ridging out ahead as did the 6z but its a little late to do us enough good. I hate wish casting, but IF we can get that to occur just a bit earlier, it might yank this thing north a bit more. I mention it because it still has a chance of happening as the NS energy still off the map. Yes, I’m not throwing in the towel. We have seen many times, in all seasons, these type of storms travel further north & west than modeled. We don’t need too much of a correction to get at least a minor event from this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I’m not throwing in the towel. We have seen many times, in all seasons, these type of storms travel further north & west than modeled. We don’t need too much of a correction to get at least a minor event from this storm. I agree with you, other years we usually got some north west movement with these storms. Just wish we could capture some cold for these storms... NWS: The arrival of a positively-tilted trough into the northeast Saturday night through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick minor snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for a 24 to 36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic coast, northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds over western areas start the first full week in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before? I'll ask the folks who spend their lives in Stoke-on-Trent, England, because that's what I imagine this is like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Atomixwx said: I'll ask the folks who spend their lives in Stoke-on-Trent, England. Hold on that...I just checked with my cousin in Seattle. I think the most discouraging thing this morning is that we MIGHT be looking at a 7-10 day stretch of relatively dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, pawatch said: I agree with you, other years we usually got some north west movement with these storms. Just wish we could capture some cold for these storms... NWS: The arrival of a positively-tilted trough into the northeast Saturday night through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick minor snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for a 24 to 36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic coast, northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds over western areas start the first full week in February. That is what is killing this thing and what I was referencing above wrt ridging. Looking over AM runs, some have a little better ridging out ahead which give this thing a chance to climb a bit more. Again, that's not a wish...its what I'm looking for based on what we are discussing about storms and their ability to climb north even as we get into the near term. Like Blizz said, its happened countless times over the last few years. That's my rub w/ those that have already called this DOA. Just based on our ability to fail, they are probably "correct" in their assessment, but IMO its really 36hrs away from calling the coroner. edit - and for those in the NW....fine....call the coroner, but anyone here in the LSV that is calling this, is just hoping to get "lucky". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before? Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat. Have not worn a coat once this winter. I do not work outside but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat. Have not worn a coat once this winter. I do not work outside but still.... I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts. Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 But don't worry. It'll be thirty-eight degrees and drizzly in April, for you cold lovers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts. Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that... The interesting thing is I did not really think we had a warm month but you are right in that MDT has only stayed below freezing two days in January and has only hit the teens 3 times with all being above 15. We have been colder in my area and have gone down between 10-15 a couple times this month but nothing major. Funny but records say we hit 69 twice at MDT this month and I did not remember that. Going back to Dec we had 3 more nights in the teens and 1 day below freezing but no days in the 60's. So as we high the 2/3 mark in our Met Winter I would not call this one of our warmer winters ever but for the purposes of this board it is one of the worst weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Or how many mornings can we go without wearing a real coat. Have not worn a coat once this winter. I do not work outside but still.... And then there's me. The person who has worn a t-shirt under a sweatshirt, covered by a winter coat, most days since November...lol Since my thyroid issues developed, the cold has been much more difficult to tolerate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts. Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that... a raging + AO/NAO are like a vacuum and suck all the heat north....yes, lack of snow cover to the north surely adds into the mix, as does a constant wave train of cutters the scours out any cold we get. Look at the lack of frozen ground. We really need to be 41-42 and north to get that with any regularity, and throw in a bad base state....yeah were "cooked", and relying on climo and luck to get the goods. Weve been backloaded for the last couple of years, so in my mind, Feb/March are way too early to write off. NAO leads are +/- 10 days and IF we can get any better flow up top....we could roll into better times rather swiftly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Voyager said: And then there's me. The person who has worn a t-shirt under a sweatshirt, covered by a winter coat, most days since November...lol Since my thyroid issues developed, the cold has been much more difficult to tolerate. Yea, I get cold sometimes too...I have that deal where my hands get white quickly (raynauds) so if I worked outside I would certainly be wearing a coat and more winter gear as it has not been warm but I was comparing this year with last year, in my head, and as Mike suggested this years cold has been a muted cold. Almost like we are being teased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I get cold sometimes too...I have that deal where my hands get white quickly (raynauds) so if I worked outside I would certainly be wearing a coat and more winter gear as it has not been warm but I was comparing this year with last year, in my head, and as Mike suggested this years cold has been a muted cold. Almost like we are being teased. Correct. Save for a few days here and there, it hasn't been a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: a raging + AO/NAO are like a vacuum and suck all the heat north....yes, lack of snow cover to the north surely adds into the mix, as does a constant wave train of cutters the scours out any cold we get. Look at the lack of frozen ground. We really need to be 41-42 and north to get that with any regularity, and throw in a bad base state....yeah were "cooked", and relying on climo and luck to get the goods. Weve been backloaded for the last couple of years, so in my mind, Feb/March are way too early to write off. NAO leads are +/- 10 days and IF we can get any better flow up top....we could roll into better times rather swiftly. 100% agree with this. Just because we're in a bad place doesn't mean we'll end there. Would not surprise me in the least to end the season with a "bang." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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