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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Icon has a case of the warminista's (and dry).  Actually seems loser to the coast but the whole no cold air thing....

still has the storm.....all we need to worry about right now.

I dont mean that in a snippy way, just saying we need the storm and as long as its there and coming from the south, thats the focus to me.

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41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else. 

This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this:

1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say

2-Its only 6 hours until the next run

3-I'm just happy to be in the game

4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough

5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface.

6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps

7-We were never in this one.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this:

1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say

2-Its only 6 hours until the next run

3-I'm just happy to be in the game

4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough

5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface.

6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps

7-We were never in this one.

 

 

Lol dead on.

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this:

1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say

2-Its only 6 hours until the next run

3-I'm just happy to be in the game

4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough

5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface.

6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps

7-We were never in this one.

 

 

Dr. No hasn't been Dr. No since, what, 2015?

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33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is where we are all supposed to chip in with comments like this:

1-Let's see what Dr. No has to say

2-Its only 6 hours until the next run

3-I'm just happy to be in the game

4-The GFS has a bias to not amp systems enough

5-Heights were higher out in front but it did not translate to the surface.

6-Rates will overcome the high surface temps

7-We were never in this one.

 

 

Dr. No already said no so all the debbies can just jump to #7, cause 90% of the time they are right....no reasoning needed.  

 

FWIW..Im just happy to be tracking something other than warmth. Personally i dont get wound up on run to run shifts....even when they look good for me.  I've run out of deaths to die over this sport decades ago.  I'm numb to it but love the chase.  

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not near dead.  Daxx or no daxx we are tracking this one to the edges of the universe.  Just doing a quick PBP with no maps because I am busy. 

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

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Just now, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

Wow, you posted when the Euro was running...let's see if you have some mojo here.  LOL. 

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2 minutes ago, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

Dont hold back.....K?

:P

 

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10 minutes ago, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

I was going to post for you but thought better of it. Turns out you posted exactly what I would have said! (that you would say)

"If Brian isn't posting there's a damn good reason for it." (nothing to see here, move along...) 

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11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Good grief.....shall I take my toys elsewhere.....?

No one in this thread is going full meltdown or anything close to it. My response to yours regarding the 12z goofus raining on the Atlantic waters was to SUPPORT what you said about models losing storms at range. That's why I quoted your post in my response...

I think that there are plenty of level heads posting here today. 

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53 minutes ago, daxx said:

Keep up the good work Bubbler!  To me there isn’t much to discuss. It’s been bad, it is bad, and it looks bad!  We may luck into something. Hopefully things change but I am not holding my breath. I hope I wasn’t too negative. Lol 

Ehh, did not work.  I was hoping.  It was a bit of a downer when I saw the NoGaps go east this morning.   I know I am model watching instead of synoptic reasoning but do not have time for much else. 

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Still too much progression and positive tilted alignment for my liking with this upcoming storm. The western ridge is pressed east/flattened and it limits the northern branch's ability to dig down and pull this up in time. GFS/Euro bury a lot of energy into Mexico, while the 12z Canadian didn't and offered the most coherent attempt at some interaction..thus being the closest of the bunch at 12z.  CTP had a decent discussion about this in their long term this morning.

 

Quote

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still watching potential for weekend storminess, although
consensus of operational models takes a flatter wave out to sea
south of the region, sparing PA from a big storm. This is a
critical upper air pattern, however, and east coast storminess
is largely dependent upon the strength of the upper trof coming
onshore into British Columbia on Wednesday, cresting/flattening
the western NOAM upper ridge and then digging southward through
the Great Basin and Four corners region while additional
shortwaves eject into the northern Plains. Degree of phasing
between northern and southern stream is highly suspect in this
pattern, and the extent of Gulf Coast convection Thu night into
Friday may very well determine how close to the coast the sfc
low deepens Friday and whether PA gets into any precip on the
northern edge of the storm system. For now, it appears to be a
miss, but will continue to watch closely. The arrival of a
positively- tilted trough into the northeast Saturday night
through Sunday may be enough to produce a quick- but
insignificant-snowfall and drop temperatures to below normal for
a 24 to 36 hour period. As that trough moves off the Atlantic
coast, northwest flow, lake effect snow, and gusty winds appear
likely to start the first full week in February.

 

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On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week).  A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high.  Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

On the subject of extreme weather the Euro now has 3 days in the 60's (LSV) next week with one day threatening 70 followed by the potential for a MECS if not HECS just 36 hours later starting Thursday night (next week).  A substantial slp is lifting through the lower Miss Valley while bagginess off the coast of S/E VA suggests the low is getting ready to transfer and lock in the cold air being funneled down through PA from a retreating high.  Unlike this weekend the late week storm next week has cold air to work with just to our north. 

Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable. 

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