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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is shaping up to be on of the storms where LSV's have to be happy for the folks in the mountains who miss out on most of the big coastal.  Going to take a fairly big shift at this point in the game to get LSV back into it.  50-100 miles.  When they say N/W of the I81 corridor I do not think they literally mean I81 they mean the whole valley encompassing I81....N/W of there.

 

 

Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one.

But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now.

I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one.

But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now.

I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.

If the trajectory of the low were a bit different I would feel more confident for western LSV.  Look at this panel on the NAM and it is where we want it if it were going east by North east instead of North by North East.

 

image.png.7b5eb229eaeac2e1f3cdb26b8ac3d226.png

 

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Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one.
But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now.
I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.

Based solely on models, this has been trending in the wrong direction for LSV folks. And I feel it’s not done moving further north and west.

This is not our storm.


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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If the trajectory of the low were a bit different I would feel more confident for western LSV.  Look at this panel on the NAM and it is where we want it if it were going east by North east instead of North by North East.

 

image.png.7b5eb229eaeac2e1f3cdb26b8ac3d226.png

 

^^^^this

well said.

 

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46 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Hopefully the models will shift and we all end up with a suprise. 

Getting to close for sizeable shifts, but yes, 25 -50 miles is possible and can make a big diff. for some.  I've been out since Monday, so heck yeah, I'm rooting all of you on from the sidelines.

 

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The overnight guidance I thought solidified a good bit with a more defined miller-B transition... perhaps a little bit high on the latitude with the primary before transferring but otherwise a workable track with plenty of QPF to be had in the region. The problem is becoming more about the marginal column temps in place ahead of the system as well the models predicting the secondary low a bit more inside the coastline, more of a coastal plain runner. That inside track hurts the Lower Sus Valley, especially York/Lancaster counties. But even more of a coastal track is an issue trying to get 850 temps cool enough in especially the LSV and it's close too.. only a matter of a couple degrees. The north-central is in the best shape with this currently, and the central between I-80 and the turnpike and  further NW of I-81 is as always.. the most complicated to nail down. Could be rain to 1-2" of junk or a 6-10" shallacking.. or both. One positive I have noticed is the high to the north has quietly been being progged a bit stronger as we've gotten closer. 

I see the 12z NAM has started things off in the wrong direction. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Getting to close for sizeable shifts, but yes, 25 -50 miles is possible and can make a big diff. for some.  I've been out since Monday, so heck yeah, I'm rooting all of you on from the sidelines.

 

Nam is coming in a smidge North so not going to be good news for a miracle on this run.   Not only does the LSV not get snow there is almost no snow anywhere in PA outside the Western mountain ridges and some random lollipops other places. ...yuck.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam is coming in a smidge North so not going to be good news for a miracle on this run.   Not only does the LSV not get snow there is almost no snow anywhere in PA...yuck.

No blocking to the N....no way to slow/hold the storm down.  Thats been my rub/ stance from early on.  HP centered just east of us brings the southerly flow right up and ruins what marginal 850s were there.  One then needs dynamics to overcome, and while they will, it will be more isolated/elevation driven vs widespread snowfall distribution.  I've little doubt some on some mountaintops say "look at me and all of my snow", but by and large, lots of staring out the window waiting for most of us. 

Gang, this is just me and my feelings on storm evolution based on my 10,000' view...not a forecast.  So wanna be wrong.  

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and fwiw, i do see the HP that is similarly placed to last weekends event (approx 200 miles N of Maine/Canadian border).  Not sure that a 1035 has enough power/input that far N.  Move it south to Lake Placid-Lake George, and I'm interested.  Just dont see a mechanism for that to happen w/ flow pattern were in. Too much ridging out ahead.  Need the letter H up where i referenced and i'm borderline giddy (or 50/50), or -AO.  Without neg NAO/AO, HP's just scoot along like LP's. 

Gotta block da flo yo

What the heck is wrong w/ me.....I think I'm broken.....

all this debbie stuff just aint my jam.  

namconus_z500_vort_us_42.png

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and fwiw, i do see the HP that is similarly placed to last weekends event (approx 200 miles N of Maine/Canadian border).  Not sure that a 1035 has enough power/input that far N.  Move it south to Lake Placid-Lake George, and I'm interested.  Just dont see a mechanism for that to happen w/ flow pattern were in. Too much ridging out ahead.  Need the letter H up where i referenced and i'm borderline giddy (or 50/50), or -AO.  Without neg NAO/AO, HP's just scoot along like LP's. 

Gotta block da flo yo

What the heck is wrong w/ me.....I think I'm broken.....

all this debbie stuff just aint my jam.  

 

It's not Debbie stuff.  We are here to discuss the weather, model output, etc...if you were trying to play the Nam and Icon as being good for snow then you would be bull shitting.  LOL.  Debbie is looking at a situation that looks decent but could go bad and saying it will go bad. Right now this does not look decent.  We have once again fallen prey to the seemingly always wrong 4-7 days EC and GFS depictions to hope for something and slowly seen it taken away as it gets closer.  Been a bad trend the last two winters especially this one. 

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23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and fwiw, i do see the HP that is similarly placed to last weekends event (approx 200 miles N of Maine/Canadian border).  Not sure that a 1035 has enough power/input that far N.  Move it south to Lake Placid-Lake George, and I'm interested.  Just dont see a mechanism for that to happen w/ flow pattern were in. Too much ridging out ahead.  Need the letter H up where i referenced and i'm borderline giddy (or 50/50), or -AO.  Without neg NAO/AO, HP's just scoot along like LP's. 

Gotta block da flo yo

What the heck is wrong w/ me.....I think I'm broken.....

all this debbie stuff just aint my jam.  

namconus_z500_vort_us_42.png

Telling the truth isn't being a Debbie downer, no way. We can't change the weather (well China is trying) so we have to be honest with what we're seeing. Good and bad. 

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's not Debbie stuff.  We are here to discuss the weather, model output, etc...if you were trying to play the Nam and Icon as being good for snow then you would be bull shitting.  LOL.  Debbie is looking at a situation that looks decent but could go bad and saying it will go bad. Right now this does not look decent.  We have once again fallen prey to the seemingly always wrong 4-7 days EC and GFS depictions to hope for something and slowly seen it taken away as it gets closer.  Been a bad trend the last two winters especially this one. 

This! @pasnownut you're not being a deb, you're using logic and being realistic. And frankly I'm glad to read it. You might not "like" posting the way you are right now, but you're posting truth. It's just as foolish to post positive thoughts when the pattern doesn't support it as it is to be negative when the pattern does support it. People that are negative are made to feel like crap at times when the fact is...if the pattern sucks they're going to be (and have been) right. 

Bubbler...you could not have said it better. 

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18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's not Debbie stuff.  We are here to discuss the weather, model output, etc...if you were trying to play the Nam and Icon as being good for snow then you would be bull shitting.  LOL.  Debbie is looking at a situation that looks decent but could go bad and saying it will go bad. Right now this does not look decent.  We have once again fallen prey to the seemingly always wrong 4-7 days EC and GFS depictions to hope for something and slowly seen it taken away as it gets closer.  Been a bad trend the last two winters especially this one. 

Yeah, your last sentence is the unfortunate truth.  While I'm no met and NEVER try to imply as such, I've done this for so long that i feel I've honed my senses/abilities enough to smell a rat if you will.  I've beat the horse a bunch, but with Miller B's we need a cold mechanism close by to work with.  While we are in peak climo and it is "officially" the easiest time to snow....this pattern is close but no cigar if you will.  The last 2 years we've been in a predominant cutter pattern, and until one of the mentioned indicies works into our favor (or PNA) changes, were kinda stuck.  Yes, we sure can score in less than stellar patterns (and some likely will this weekend), but we live on the latitude fringe of winter if you will.  If this upcoming event were shifted just a bit further south and east, I'd shut my pie hole. 

It could be worse, we could be in the MA who really is shutout in situs like this.  I don't say that in a demeaning way either.....they've got no chance verbatim.  At least we are in the game....till were out. ^_^

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This! @pasnownut you're not being a deb, you're using logic and being realistic. And frankly I'm glad to read it. You might not "like" posting the way you are right now, but you're posting truth. It's just as foolish to post positive thoughts when the pattern doesn't support it as it is to be negative when the pattern does support it. People that are negative are made to feel like crap at times when the fact is...if the pattern sucks they're going to be (and have been) right. 

Bubbler...you could not have said it better. 

Thanks guys.  While I'm not a bit happy about it, I'm too old to bullshit and this weather stuff is serious bizz for us weenies.

Onward and eventually upward.....I hope.  

(watch this thing trend S/E and we get a shellackin).  Yall can come down and I'll by a round or 2 for wasting all of your time w/ my nonsense.  

That said, its why I'm here.  I love the chase.  

 

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25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks guys.  While I'm not a bit happy about it, I'm too old to bullshit and this weather stuff is serious bizz for us weenies.

Onward and eventually upward.....I hope.  

(watch this thing trend S/E and we get a shellackin).  Yall can come down and I'll by a round or 2 for wasting all of your time w/ my nonsense.  

That said, its why I'm here.  I love the chase.  

 

Dude, i like yours and others write ups. You guys are a plethora of knowledge.

Teach us Sensei :clap:

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Sensei! I love it! As a former continuous improvement (Lean methodology) leader I never expected to read that term used on here. :lol:

Neither did I....let alone in a personal reference.  :lol:

Now I'm nervous for my next impending screw up.....it's been known to happen.

In truth its all good and why I love it here.  Sharing our passion for weather. (and the occasional snowflake).

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