pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 All aboard....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: All aboard....... Why do you post the sleet maps? LOL. And it's 12Z! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 SO 18Z GFS is really chincy with snow in my neck of the woods. Basically none. 1-2" for most of the LSV though MDT scores big with 3-4". Discouraging. Many lose 850's before the second batch gets here. Most definitely a trend away from wintry in the 18Z suite started off by the HRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Why do you post the sleet maps? LOL. And it's 12Z! LOL. cause I'm a bonehead that tried to do it sitting in a parking lot.... better?? Looks like Horst hijacked the USS GooFuS special intel maps for his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Looks like Horst hijacked the USS GooFuS special intel maps for his forecast It certainly does. GFS is a Horst special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 and full disclosure, while hugging the crap out of above, I think OTG totals are generally divisble by 2 as sleet and ZR will keep totals knocked down. Now time to pay attention to Mesos and hone in on 700 and below levels to see how they are initializing vs actual. Thats gonna pave the path to frozen. Also watch for CAD structure east of mtns and below MD line as we near go time. If my hunch is right you see a southern push to critical layers which is my path to victory. CAD erodes too quickly.....well you know how that goes. Will my battleship cruise into port with bands playin.....or get sunk from SS Submarine? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Here it comes.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: SO 18Z GFS is really chincy with snow in my neck of the woods. Basically none. 1-2" for most of the LSV though MDT scores big with 3-4". Discouraging. Many lose 850's before the second batch gets here. Most definitely a trend away from wintry in the 18Z suite started off by the HRR. If...if that first batch is correctly modeled and we lose it to evap and low DPs....and the mids cook quickly.....well that’s the missle to the bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 25/13 bar 30.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: and full disclosure, while hugging the crap out of above, I think OTG totals are generally divisble by 2 as sleet and ZR will keep totals knocked down. Now time to pay attention to Mesos and hone in on 700 and below levels to see how they are initializing vs actual. Thats gonna pave the path to frozen. Also watch for CAD structure east of mtns and below MD line as we near go time. If my hunch is right you see a southern push to critical layers which is my path to victory. CAD erodes too quickly.....well you know how that goes. Will my battleship cruise into port with bands playin.....or get sunk from SS Submarine? You're full of German fun today, aren't ya? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 What a very interesting day of posting that I missed today while I was working.... Some folks should be happy that we have no moderator in our forum. Otherwise a few people might be heading towards being 5 posted... Needless to say, it was entertaining. Thanks to @pasnownut & @Bubbler86 for trying to actually post about the weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Speaking of the weather, here is another view of the 18z GFS. I have no complaints for my yard! @canderson & @sauss06 would approve as well ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 The dew points are currently in the single digits across the eastern half of PA. This arctic air seems to be ready for a fight! I am all aboard the @pasnownut snow train to max out this event tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Speaking of the weather, here is another view of the 18z GFS. I have no complaints for my yard! [mention=1156]canderson[/mention] & [mention=1291]sauss06[/mention] would approve as well !Thank you for always posting the latest maps. I look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 That's the highest amout for MDT in quite a few runs. The 4" line even reaches me now. Go GooFuS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Thanks @anotherman ! Here is the 18z Euro. Between the 2 on the Euro & the 4 on the GFS for my yard, the 2-4 forecast from Monday going by storm type made by @Itstrainingtime looks to be on track, or should I say, on board ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: That's the highest amout for MDT in quite a few runs. The 4" line even reaches me now. Go GooFuS! The 12z GFS was a little better for MDT, but no complaints if they put 4 inches of snow in the books tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: That's the highest amout for MDT in quite a few runs. The 4" line even reaches me now. Go GooFuS! It's one of "them there" forum splitters. Canderson gets WSW snows while Daxx just has to broom off and and I am getting soap and bucket ready to wash my car in the rain that is going to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I have to admit, when the models were backing off on the totals Tue/Wed, I got skeptical that we'd see anything substantial out of this event. It seemed like is was going in the direction of our many 2" events from the past. The past few days have surprised me though, as we've come back to respectable amounts. My only worry now is that my wife, daughter, and grandkids are going to Wilkes-Barre tomorrow to see Disney on Ice. Hope they don't run into problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Another HRR trend I have noticed is the speed up of the finger of snow (AKA the warm front). At 18Z the snow was just getting into Franklin count at 7AM while now the depiction is for the snow to be breaking out just West of Harrisburg at the same time. A bit more than an hour jump forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 It’s nice to not need to worry about temps tomorrow morning for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Another HRR trend I have noticed is the speed up of the finger of snow (AKA the warm front). At 18Z the snow was just getting into Franklin count at 7AM while now the depiction is for the snow to be breaking out just West of Harrisburg at the same time. A bit more than an hour jump forward. Overruning type events tend to be a little ahead of models sometimes, so we'll take any advection snows we can get. I'm really hoping the gap between advection and the real deal narrows overnight for same reason, anything we can get before we lose the column keeps the chance at snow on the ground for a handful of days alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Overruning type events tend to be a little ahead of models sometimes, so we'll take any advection snows we can get. I'm really hoping the gap between advection and the real deal narrows overnight for same reason, anything we can get before we lose the column keeps the chance at snow on the ground for a handful of days alive. I am (especially for me) a bit worried about the 18Z GFS depiction of it breaking 40 tomorrow. I know in the LSV that can sometimes be overdone but on my side of the mountain it can go up fast. GFS gets the 40 degree line just south of MDT while NAM puts many into the mid 30's. Previously I was thinking it would not break freezing tomorrow but now I am wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 This is getting into the range where I start weighing the near term and high resolution guidance more over the globals. Early looks at the HRRR with the first parts of the storm show a pretty decent burst of precip with the initial mid level WAA. Hopefully that gets realized on the ground and it doesn't take long to overcome whats going to be a dry airmass. Right now I think an inch or so looks good with that initial wave. The HRRR is showing the break in precip (although above I-80 doesn't have a break) but it also showing the main wave starting as snow even in Pittsburgh, which should bode well in the central counties and LSV. The 0z HRRR will be running shortly, and the 0,6,12,and 18z runs go out to 36 hours. So that will be something to have a look at within the next hour to see where things are at according to that. The 18z extended run really collapsed the rain/snow line down towards the mason/dixon line as the main wave pressed into the LSV. It might be light on the QPF though.. it's showing only a couple tenths of precip total in the south central and parts of LSV esp below the turnpike. Heck parts of Franklin county barely get a tenth. Probably too dry, but given the westerly component to this event with the low tracking across through the lakes above PA.. we might have to keep an eye out for a precip min east of the mountains in the southern tier. I generally agree with what CTP has out snow wise. Overachieving on snow totals in the majority of the area below I-80 is going to hinge on the magnitude of warm advection aloft. I think this is primarily a frozen event for us, but there might be a decent bout of sleet. On the other hand, heavy precip coming in could collapse the column enough to maintain snow for awhile with the main wave if there's more wiggle room with the wet bulbs.. which is a fair possibility. I don't think that initial wave completely saturates it. Temps probably will go a bit above freezing over most of the area for a time tomorrow evening after the main precip is past and the occluded front comes through and mixes out the cold at the low levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 11 hours ago, Atomixwx said: The dry slot, I'm okay with. I have plans in Altoona tomorrow night for the McGregor fight and would really not have to cancel that, so if we can squeeze some accumulation out in the morning and shut it down after that, I would be quite alright with that. Oh boy there goes the neighborhood haha. https://images.app.goo.gl/FKypy8UiR5yrecfKA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am (especially for me) a bit worried about the 18Z GFS depiction of it breaking 40 tomorrow. I know in the LSV that can sometimes be overdone but on my side of the mountain it can go up fast. GFS gets the 40 degree line just south of MDT while NAM puts many into the mid 30's. Previously I was thinking it would not break freezing tomorrow but now I am wondering. Hoping you are east enough to have enough CAD to pull it off. Thats why i've been hoping for a slightly weaker storm, as while we lose qpf...we also lose warm punch. Personally id take a cooler column w/ less qpf, than hoping rates overcome wet bulb (as Mag) suggested. Further east we may be deep enough for that to happen for a time, but eventually...we likely lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: This is getting into the range where I start weighing the near term and high resolution guidance more over the globals. Early looks at the HRRR with the first parts of the storm show a pretty decent burst of precip with the initial mid level WAA. Hopefully that gets realized on the ground and it doesn't take long to overcome whats going to be a dry airmass. Right now I think an inch or so looks good with that initial wave. The HRRR is showing the break in precip (although above I-80 doesn't have a break) but it also showing the main wave starting as snow even in Pittsburgh, which should bode well in the central counties and LSV. The 0z HRRR will be running shortly, and the 0,6,12,and 18z runs go out to 36 hours. So that will be something to have a look at within the next hour to see where things are at according to that. The 18z extended run really collapsed the rain/snow line down towards the mason/dixon line as the main wave pressed into the LSV. It might be light on the QPF though.. it's showing only a couple tenths of precip total in the south central and parts of LSV esp below the turnpike. Heck parts of Franklin county barely get a tenth. Probably too dry, but given the westerly component to this event with the low tracking across through the lakes above PA.. we might have to keep an eye out for a precip min east of the mountains in the southern tier. I generally agree with what CTP has out snow wise. Overachieving on snow totals in the majority of the area below I-80 is going to hinge on the magnitude of warm advection aloft. I think this is primarily a frozen event for us, but there might be a decent bout of sleet. On the other hand, heavy precip coming in could collapse the column enough to maintain snow for awhile with the main wave if there's more wiggle room with the wet bulbs.. which is a fair possibility. I don't think that initial wave completely saturates it. Temps probably will go a bit above freezing over most of the area for a time tomorrow evening after the main precip is past and the occluded front comes through and mixes out the cold at the low levels. On queue from your note the 0Z HRRR is starting almost everyone off with snow for round two but it is light and borders on negligible along the far southern tier. I know better than to take HRRR qpf amps too seriously but I like watching for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 0Z Nam Kucera for PA (before sleet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 And TTs inclusive of sleet. Only sharing because frozen came south below MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: And TTs inclusive of sleet. Only sharing because frozen came south below MD Yea, it really lite up the Mason Dixon with an extremely heavy line of sleet. LSV never goes above freezing. 3K Sleet map from MA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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