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Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020


MAG5035
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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

We've had three snowfalls - last week's which they came in at 4", one where we had a dusting (OK you could I guess if had a perfect board setup say we had .3" maybe) and a cartopper early that was just a trace. 

well now that I seen your picture it make perfect sence . Your so hot and sexy my man you melt all the snow befor it hits the ground in Harrisburg.

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5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

8.7" season total for me to this point. Surprised that HBG is that far behind me. 

You still got me lol, 0.2" this afternoon here brings my total to 5.3" on the season. I'm essentially at 10% in terms of average snowfall for the winter.

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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm not sure of your exact location but your snow pics definitely show more than what mdt has recorded. Maybe you are at an higher elevation. 

yeah, york cashed in while nearby locals....notsomuch

we got around 2.5 - 3" in northern lanco

sorry flathead, canderson is correct

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My Verizon home internet has been down for 3 days. Suppose to be back up tomorrow morning. Local outage

Not really able to follow this storM.

Seems we’re in this pattern where we can’t keep cold air in place. Most of what the models show a week out I usually cut the total in half. To me seems like a more realistic number.

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After taking a pretty close look at the afternoon models, there's still some pretty sizable differences thermally at the different levels. The 18z NAM manages to be the coldest and warmest at one point... having the sharpest surge of 850 temps of the bunch (+4ºC all the way to the NY state line in western PA) while simultaneously having the coldest 925mb temps overall (with -6 to -8ºC over C-PA). Safe to say, that's why the NAM has a lot of sleet. The Euro and GFS have a good bit less of a surge at 850mb while being a bit warmer at 925mb but still pretty cold while most of the precip is falling. Those models have been surging the 925mb level but after most precip has fallen. The 12z GFS was the coldest at 850mb and thus had the coldest overall column which was why it was flirting with a mostly snow event over a large portion of the area.

So there's all that...and I'll continue to note that this warm air intrusion aloft, whatever magnitude it is, will be brief. The maturing storm system in the lakes will already be wrapping cold around, and could in fact try to change some places back to snow as the 850 temps are already on the way back down late in the event. I think the central counties (esp I-80 north) stand the best chance of that scenario. Snowfall amounts are not only going to hinge on how solid the initial WAA snowfall is, and I think everyone should be good for at least a general T-2" from that... but also how well the column holds up when the main stuff arrives. If there isn't much of a break in between, I think most places could start the main wave of precip as snow as well. That's especially the case if the Euro and GFS are correct with less of an 850mb surge than the NAM's. Obviously from I-80 north this is predominantly frozen event to begin with and has the best chance of having several inches of snow/sleet. For the mixing I think sleet will be the dominant mix p-type. There probably will be some freezing rain to be had (Laurels, maybe southern tier) but this has a look of a more prolonged period of sleet vs it just being part of a transition to liquid/freezing. The cold 925mb temps in place are a big tipoff for me in that department. 

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DUDES ITS COOL BUT  I LIVE 2.3 MILES THE WAY THE CROW FLYS  FROM CANDERSON I DRIVE THROUGH ALMOST DAILY  .  HE TOOK HIS PICS UNDER A OVER PASS FOR A REASON. I HAVE BEEN STOMPING THESES GROUNDS FOR 40+ YEARS . . HE B/S EVERY STORM AND YOU GUYS STILL BELIVE HIM AFTER ALL THESE YEARS. I HAVE BEEN PUTTING UP TOTALS SINCE 2016 AND HE HAS NEVER GOT MORE SNOW THAN ME. ONE OF YOUR GOOD AND RESPECTED BUDDYS HERE HAS ALSO CAUGHT HIM UP TO HIS TRICKS I WISH HE WOULD SPEAK UP IN THE NAME OF HARRISBURG SNOW TOTALS. I JOIND JAN 21 2016 BECAUSE I WAS NOT GOING TO LET MY AREAS TOTALS BE  B/S ON HERE ANYMORE.   I AM DONE WITH THIS LOVE ALL THE GREAT  READS YOU GUYS GIVE ME AND KEEP ON TRACKING.  I DO UNDER STAND A FEW MILES CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFRENCE. BUT NOT EVERY STORM. UNLIKE THE STATE WORKERS AND YOUR MAN I PUT IN THE WORK WHEN ITS SNOWING

  • January 21, 2016to 
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Wait what? @sauss06 and I usually have identical totals as we are equally close to the river and probably identical elevation (clippers differ, the city can somehow do well there x must be the cut in the mountains), and he works in Harrisburg and confirmed my report. I’m not gonna argue about .5” snow, that’s meaningless. That Jan 2016 storm where MDT had 30.2” was insane - god bless the NAM for that one! I lost ability to measure accurately over iirc 24” due to a plow down my alley. God that storm was amazing,

@dj88 usually gets more as he is up the mountain, that lucky duck.

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8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Back to reality, had a nice snow squall blow through. Wind is so strong is immediately blew away but that was pretty cool (and unexpected!). 

Yes, I passed through a light squall on 283 on the way home.

My wife & kids said when I got home that Marysville had a decent snow squall. The car tops have a solid coating of snow.

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@ChalkHillSnowNutThe fellows here have been helping me understand the importance of the long range models . I still believe that the future weather and climate forcasting is a combination of there passion and the things I am trying to understand. I am sure it wont be me that breaks ground on this stuff but someone will. The reason I write and post stuff sometime so vague  is so the guys on here with a good grasp on the computer end possibility take interest and do research to figure out what I am trying to say and learn in the process then I can learn from them . Its not working out to well. Not that I haven't been a problem here at time I have always felt its more of a competition here than a collectives learning experience although I think that is changing and will change with a few hiccups along the way . 

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1 hour ago, Flatheadsickness said:

Or difference is  over 2" for the last storm not .5 stop with the persuasion tactics  . Any ways there was a few more lightning strikes today just south west of Altoona nicely oriented with yesterdays lightning.  

  • January 21, 2016bEE

I'd say the lightning strikes over that area today probably have more to do with the low level instability and terrain than anything else. We've had some pretty strong snow squalls today with the sun being out + initially warmer surface temps vs very cold air coming in aloft. That patch of strikes is on the crest of the Allegheny front, so likely some extra lift had a part in that. That other patch in western MD is on the same general ridgeline.  

Here's the GOES loop with the lightning detection turned on

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

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I dunno why snow amounts from the previous event (that unfortunately has long since melted away even) are a thing tonight but according to the snow totals into CTP, they ranged from 2.0" in Mechanicsburg to 7.0" in Boiling Springs in Cumberland County and excluding a couple early reports.. 2.9" at the Airport in H-burg to 5.5" in Hummelstown and near Elizabethtown with other H-burg suburbs in the 4-5" range in Dauphin County. I wouldn't consider a 4.0" near center city Harrisburg as being a suspiciously low-ball number. Most of the 5-7" amounts ran on a line just south of the city. 

Quote

...Cumberland County...
   Boiling Springs        7.0   630 PM  1/07  elev 1400ft
   Sporting Hill          5.5   900 PM  1/07  Social Media
   Mount Holly Spring     4.0   530 PM  1/07  Social Media
   Enola                  4.0   630 PM  1/07  Social Media
   Mechanicsburg          2.0   630 PM  1/07  Public

...Dauphin County...
   4 W Elizabethtown      5.5   630 PM  1/07  Elev 500ft
   Hummelstown            5.5   730 PM  1/07  Social Media
   3 NW Middletown        5.1   800 PM  1/07  Social Media
   Colonial Park          4.8   600 PM  1/07  Social Media
   Linglestown            4.0   830 PM  1/07  PEMA
   Elizabethville         3.5   910 PM  1/07  Trained Spotter
   Harrisburg Internati   2.9   500 PM  1/07  ASOS
   Rockville              2.0   345 PM  1/07  Social Media
   2 NW Harrisburg        1.2   320 PM  1/07  Broadcast Media

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=PNS&format=CI&version=5&glossary=0

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Thanks Mag. I do understand what facilitated the lightning and as mentioned its not in are area .  Its not something I see much of this time of year in or area . Most of the lightning I have seen around here JAN-FEB precedes nor'easters. I am getting a little paranoid so I just want to make it clear I appreciate and respect you professorial knowledge. Always have.

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I hade no idea they took totals from public and social media that explains a lot.  Was all over the place that night and I can also say Mechanicsburg  is wrong spent the late evening shoveling my aunts driveway right across from Friendship Park In Mechanicsburg and there was well over 2" and probably 1/3 melted befor I got there. Got to measure during the storm facebook and cell phone hounds.

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