Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, canderson said: the biggest Euro run of our lives is coming soon ................. Interesting that it has the same NAM football finger of snow earlier on Saturday and then nothing for a while but part two does start as snow in the LSV Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more. I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain. If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: That’s why they are fun to look at and fantasize about, but unless it’s within a 5 days, it’s only model porn. . Unless I know it’s going to be an all snow event or within 24 hours I skip right over them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm down. AmericanWX road trip? I will be going, it's just a matter of when. Stunning scenery, plenty of things to do outdoors and then well, there's the snow. A lot of it. Back in December they were under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 - 2' of snow. Gotta earn a warning in the Sierra! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more. I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain. If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5". The EC heard you and made sure all your closest neighbors got less than 2" as well so its fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The EC heard you and made sure all your closest neighbors got less than 2" as well so its fair. Time to venture up 44 north to Potter county... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Time to venture up 44 north to Potter county... these totals include sleet as well, correct? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Time to venture up 44 north to Potter county... was supposed to be back at cabin this weekend. Kid is on snow removal "standbye" so we had to cancel. Bumm r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: these totals include sleet as well, correct? I honestly don't know. That might be a snow-only map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: these totals include sleet as well, correct? I do not believe they do for the Pivotal EC maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The EC heard you and made sure all your closest neighbors got less than 2" as well so its fair. Gee, that makes me feel better? What is with this snow hole? I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible. Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary? That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 24 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Gee, that makes me feel better? What is with this snow hole? I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible. Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary? That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense. Ask Voyager the builder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 56 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more. I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain. If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5". 39 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Gee, that makes me feel better? What is with this snow hole? I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible. Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary? That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense. This is exactly what I used to go through a few years ago. There would always be a significant dip to the south right over eastern Schuylkill County in the contours where points to both my west and east would be modeled to get like 3-6 inches more than I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Ask Voyager the builder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 52 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Gee, that makes me feel better? What is with this snow hole? I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible. Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary? That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense. My take of looking over it that we are in the unlucky spot of having 800- 850's punched up from the south before most of the second slug of precip gets there while those to our east and west have better timing either of precip time or less of an 800-850 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yeah the lack of a real juicy heavy slug of moisture is hurting this as well...even areas lucky enough to be all snow see 6 or 7 max so not exactly qpf heavy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Is this at least the start all? Coming back from Pensacola today and am ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There are only two things that I can count on every day. The sun rising and setting and the MA LR thread full of posts about a snow storm "signal" in days 11-15 and more posts about why storms in the days 5-10 frame, previous identified as snow storms in 11-15 fives days earlier, are now dumpster fires. If you counted up all the fantasy signal snow storms in days 11-15 one would have double the snow over each winter than all the Canadian snowfall maps posted here combined. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There are only two things that I can count on every day. The sun rising and setting and the MA LR thread full of posts about a snow storm "signal" in days 11-15 and more posts about why storms in the days 5-10 frame, previous identified as snow storms in 11-15 fives days earlier, are now dumpster fires. If you counted up all the fantasy signal snow storms in days 11-15 one would have double the snow over each winter than all the Canadian snowfall maps posted here combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: My take of looking over it that we are in the unlucky spot of having 800- 850's punched up from the south before most of the second slug of precip gets there while those to our east and west have better timing either of precip time or less of an 800-850 punch. Well, thanks for giving an explanation. What you say makes sense. It's just hard to imagine how terrain could literally act like a funnel to shove that tongue of warm air aloft up over us. 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There are only two things that I can count on every day. The sun rising and setting and the MA LR thread full of posts about a snow storm "signal" in days 11-15 and more posts about why storms in the days 5-10 frame, previous identified as snow storms in 11-15 fives days earlier, are now dumpster fires. If you counted up all the fantasy signal snow storms in days 11-15 one would have double the snow over each winter than all the Canadian snowfall maps posted here combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well, thanks for giving an explanation. What you say makes sense. It's just hard to imagine how terrain could literally act like a funnel to shove that tongue of warm air aloft up over us. I think a lot of it is just timing but look at this map showing that punch right up into the LSV while to the west and east the 850's are a bit lower. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Eric Horst says this is a nothingburger for anyone south of the turnpike. https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1217896597079691264?s=20 Edit: Tweet won't embed. Below turnpike: c-1", then sleet/ice/rain Turnpike to say CTP: 1-3", then sleet/ice/rain Voyager to Williamsport to Clearfield: 3-6", then sleet/ice/rain Harrisburg is right on the c-1, 1-3" line. My under/over is 1.5" snow for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Lol...You gotta love ji, he let's his emotions out! He is definitely a legend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just to clarify MDT proper is in the 1-3" snow/sleet with freezing rain/drizzle at the end and no plain rain. He also calls for a period of heavy sleet possible at the height of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, canderson said: Eric Horst says this is a nothingburger for anyone south of the turnpike. https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1217896597079691264?s=20 Edit: Tweet won't embed. Below turnpike: c-1", then sleet/ice/rain Turnpike to say CTP: 1-3", then sleet/ice/rain Voyager to Williamsport to Clearfield: 3-6", then sleet/ice/rain Harrisburg is right on the c-1, 1-3" line. My under/over is 1.5" snow for MDT. sounds much like I've been saying for the last 2 days wrt thermal boundaries and whos gettting what. Glad he agrees w/ me Still think less rain though. 18z NAM says so as well. I'll hug it for helping me be right w/ my guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 ok.....who put the wheel lock on TT website. We stuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 This is incredible not one storm up the coast or below mason Dixon line. Got this from another forum but had to repost it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: 8.7" season total for me to this point. Surprised that HBG is that far behind me. HBG should defiantly be a little over that 8.7 total for the year. No biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Flatheadsickness said: HBG should defiantly be a little over that 8.7 total for the year. No biggie We've had three snowfalls - last week's which they came in at 4", one where we had a dusting (OK you could I guess if had a perfect board setup say we had .3" maybe) and a cartopper early that was just a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 twice this year every one was sleeping while I was out measuring and the snow was melting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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