MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Meanwhile, outside of the Sus Valley tropics where the growing season apparently didn't end lol.. Special Weather Statement is out for a large portion of Central PA for the threat of snow squalls later today. Use caution if traveling that direction later on.. especially on I-80 where snow squalls seem to be synonymous with 30+ car/truck pileups on the regular. Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 1036 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-058-311800- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 1036 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 ...DANGEROUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Dangerous travel along highways is possible this afternoon and early evening as snow squalls should drop visibilities below a half a mile with icy roadways. Snow squalls will begin in northwestern Pennsylvania early this afternoon. These squalls will move through the northern and west central portions of the state through the afternoon and early evening hours. The heaviest snowfall will be in the northwest mountains with a quick one to two inches possible. It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed this afternoon and early evening, possibly along US Route 6, I 80, I 99 and US route 15 north of Selinsgrove, as this snow moves through. Expect the snow to transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening. If traveling this afternoon, be alert to rapidly changing visibility. Untreated roads could become covered with snow during periods of heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Meanwhile, outside of the Sus Valley tropics where the growing season apparently didn't end lol.. Special Weather Statement is out for a large portion of Central PA for the threat of snow squalls later today. Use caution if traveling that direction later on.. especially on I-80 where snow squalls seem to be synonymous with 30+ car/truck pileups on the regular. Won't it be too warm MAG? Hadn't heard about squalls until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Won't it be too warm MAG? Hadn't heard about squalls until now. This will be occurring later in the afternoon with the shortwave ushering in the precip and reinforcing colder air. The biggest threat for issues is probably west of the I-99/220 corridor but CTP is being proactive given some of the high res short range models. One would have to watch for wet roads with initially warmer temps to become slick quickly if the heavier snow squalls materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Snow squall warnings indeed up for the northern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 Some decent squalls went through in the last couple hours, 0.5" new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 On and off sprinkles here. Happy New Year's to everyone. Be safe tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: On and off sprinkles here. Happy New Year's to everyone. Be safe tonight! Same here, with some wind gusts! Happy New year all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Picked up 1-2 inches today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 47 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Picked up 1-2 inches today Still waiting to reach .3”. That’s NOT what she said. Happy New Year, gang! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 1, 2020 Author Share Posted January 1, 2020 The 12z Euro's version of the potential Jan 7-8 system delivered a snow event to the commonwealth today, joining the Canadian's insistence on such things the last several runs. Today's Canadian looked a bit too wound up overall with it's evolution of not only that system but the weekend system preceding it, but mega deep systems are a Canadian trademark. GFS hasn't had much of a system at all the last few runs in this timeframe. So tons of spread in solutions remains with this. The Euro solution still technically cuts but has some secondary reflection to the coast and is a weaker wave overall so cold air aloft doesn't get routed. The result is a slug of precip (likely snowfall) that runs across the state in a widespread 2-5" type solution. There's been plenty of discussion on the gloomy outlook of the pattern overall going forward, but a window of opportunity is going to be there early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The 12z Euro's version of the potential Jan 7-8 system delivered a snow event to the commonwealth today, joining the Canadian's insistence on such things the last several runs. Today's Canadian looked a bit too wound up overall with it's evolution of not only that system but the weekend system preceding it, but mega deep systems are a Canadian trademark. GFS hasn't had much of a system at all the last few runs in this timeframe. So tons of spread in solutions remains with this. The Euro solution still technically cuts but has some secondary reflection to the coast and is a weaker wave overall so cold air aloft doesn't get routed. The result is a slug of precip (likely snowfall) that runs across the state in a widespread 2-5" type solution. There's been plenty of discussion on the gloomy outlook of the pattern overall going forward, but a window of opportunity is going to be there early next week. Thx Mag. Happy New Year to you and yours! Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window). Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible). Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 57 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thx Mag. Happy New Year to you and yours! Yeah, looking at flow for next week, we should be able to score something (front end or maybe bettter), and for that I'm personally not investing much time beyond as we have enough to do to land this one, let along get wrapped up too far beyond (NAO/AO support next weeks window). Beyond that MJO says get out the tanning lotion, but I'm not buying in too much yet, as we've see enough flux in the last 2 weeks that we may trend to a less ominous solution beyond next week....or maybe it gets worse (if thats possible). Is what it is, and I'll be lurking/sniffing out the next window all the same. Happy New Year everyone! We have the chance at a couple of winter weather events this week. The first chance is Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will depend on if a secondary low develops, & if so, the location will determine if we can get a little snow out of it. Here is the 12z Canadian & Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The 18z Euro improved the chance of some snow for us overnight Saturday into Sunday am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 The 18z EPS looks good for the overnight Sunday potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 @pasnownut & @MAG5035 What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @pasnownut & @MAG5035 What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential? from my view at Ops, we have all but GFS showing a r to MAYBE s solution for LSV. GFS says cutter. As normal of late, boundary layers are marginal, so verbatim, I'd think we would see normally favored N and W locals getting in on frozen, and we ride the line in the lower LSV. 0z Nam continues to follow CMC and ICON path (looking merely for continuity/consensus) but 850's are not cool enough. Looks like enough qpf for some to overcome and wetbomb for favored locals (cashtown/mag/kx), but its another tough one down here IMO. If anyone wants snow again, go hug the CMC for all its worth, as it shows several chances to score next week, and storm number 3 for weekend of 1/10 extrapolated looks tasty. Mind you I only say this for eye candy right now, as we've been a little starved for nice looking storms around here. The good news is that there is enough lining up for next week to give any winter solutions some merit and worth watching (starting to get a bit footballed out anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @pasnownut & @MAG5035 What are your thoughts on the Saturday pm to Sunday am winter storm potential? Right now I think it's yet another case of close but no cigar. Models do have quite a dynamic 500mb shortwave that passes in what would be a pretty decent position, though they differ a bit on surface reflection with GFS/NAM having more of a surface low through PA transferring to the coast while the Euro appears to do this underneath PA. The GFS/NAM solution isn't going to work to get anything synoptic snowwise in central PA (too far north). The Euro solution gives the best chance of a changeover scenario but the lower levels are still lagging just a bit too long, especially in the Sus Valley. We don't have established cold or anything to work with initially, and I think the pattern's too progressive to allow this dynamic system to wind up in time to actually present a changeover scenario. Thus, right now I feel the western mountains and especially NE PA seem to stand the best chance of seeing snowfall with this developing low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Snowfall the last decade, the map is in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Jim Cantore posted this GFS image this morning on Twitter. Just a "bit" of difference in the snow output for the operational GFS vs the operational EURO through Sunday... #ugh All we know is this "event" should be over Sunday. Confidence in any details are low at this time. @weatherbell pic.twitter.com/zm9SPiQt7S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 CTP says next Tuesday’s event is nothing for anyone but the Alleghenies if even them, and this weekend is light snow possible. I really might get into late January without an inch of snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 7 hours ago, canderson said: CTP says next Tuesday’s event is nothing for anyone but the Alleghenies if even them, and this weekend is light snow possible. I really might get into late January without an inch of snow Kinda depressing, isn't it? It's going to take a herculean storm to get MDT anywhere close to average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 8 hours ago, canderson said: CTP says next Tuesday’s event is nothing for anyone but the Alleghenies if even them, and this weekend is light snow possible. I really might get into late January without an inch of snow The "Spring crops are ruined by lack of cold and snow" types are getting ready to start popping out of the woodwork. I had hoped I would never have to deal with talking about that again. But with the MA LR thread now starting to traverse into February talk some are soon going to start talking about the whole winter being gone regardless of the fact that most of the information over there ends up being wrong when actual weather plays out. In reality as long as the cold stays close enough to us to matter, like it has been doing, we can get a dirty snow storm at any point including next week. Not great but still better than 60's and 70's like last early winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 When will we this winter FINALLY say _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _! GEEZ. This is getting just a bit ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: The "Spring crops are ruined by lack of cold and snow" types are getting ready to start popping out of the woodwork. I had hoped I would never have to deal with talking about that again. But with the MA LR thread now starting to traverse into February talk some are soon going to start talking about the whole winter being gone regardless of the fact that most of the information over there ends up being wrong when actual weather plays out. In reality as long as the cold stays close enough to us to matter, like it has been doing, we can get a dirty snow storm at any point including next week. Not great but still better than 60's and 70's like last early winter. I’ve worn a coat I think 3 days. A jacket has been all the rest. At least last year we had that crazy cold snap around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, canderson said: I’ve worn a coat I think 3 days. A jacket has been all the rest. At least last year we had that crazy cold snap around New Years. That wasn’t last January. You are thinking early January 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 56 minutes ago, daxx said: That wasn’t last January. You are thinking early January 2018. Yea, our cold snap last year was end of January. Beginning of January temps were very similar to now though we were getting small snow events every few days (nights since the daytime temps never stayed below freezing until the 21st). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 I've had my heat on for parts of 3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 hours ago, daxx said: That wasn’t last January. You are thinking early January 2018. D’oh you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 The fog this evening in HBG was pretty crazy - it is only covering the eastern half of the river. My office view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, canderson said: The fog this evening in HBG was pretty crazy - it is only covering the eastern half of the river. My office view. Just came up over Chickies Hill (between Columbia and Marietta) and couldn't see squat in front of me. Scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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