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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some differences between EPS and GEFS in the LR but both are definitely better looking. EPS look better than GEFS though. 

Guess we'll see how things progress in the next 3-4 days. 

Next week's threat is supported by the Hudson Bay and Quebec ridging. Had a little bit of a western ridge too so perhaps this one can have a better fate than this weekend. 

A Wait and see approach is best after the last head fake. But I think that one was rushed by guidance and this one could be the shot. Reshuffling always seems to take longer than expected.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A Wait and see approach is best after the last head fake. But I think that one was rushed by guidance and this one could be the shot. Reshuffling always seems to take longer than expected.

Yeah the pattern was never good in this past one....but I mean, we knew that it was hostile the whole time and knew it was an uphill climb....we needed the timing to work out and it just didn't. The shortwave rotating around the greenland vortex trended weaker/north. That really was probably most of the bad trend.

 

So yeah...we can blame it on a hostile pattern in the sense that everything needed to go right, but the failure itself was the shortwave up north trending bad on us. The cynical amongst us would say if we needed that thing to trend north, you know damned well it wouldn't have budged or trended south and we would have blamed it on a monster vortex up there. It didn't help that we had a disgusting antecedent airmass (again, owing to the bad larger scale pattern).....if we had a fresh airmass in place, we'd probably survive that west trend on the ULL...it may have been a messier storm, but probably a hell of a thump on the front end anyway and prob a lot more CAD/resistance anyway....so it prob redevelops further east.

 

Next week looks to have a little more wiggle room....but obviously everyone should trend carefully until we're much closer. At the very least, the antecedent airmass in the next one isn't total dogshit.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was definitely consistent for 3-4 days a week to 10 days ago for this coming week and then it 180’d.  I think we need to see it get inside day 10 to be confident 

I wonder why when we seem to get inside a certain time frame we see these major flips...it certainly doesn't happen every time but it always seems like we get inside this magic number and poof...a complete 180 happens. 

Is it perhaps that everything is being sampled better? Perhaps its a parameterization  function (outside of a certain time range doesn't the parameterization schemes change?)? Or maybe its a type of bias resulting from the ensemble mean smoothing key features just a bit too much? 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We say this every winter,  but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast. 

Yes, but until there is clear evidence/signs, why ignore persistence?  It's not the better way to forecast but it's also hard to ignore persistence sometimes.  

Having said that, next weeks system does appear to have some differences so we'll have to see how things pan out.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

Yes, but until there is clear evidence/signs, why ignore persistence?  It's not the better way to forecast but it's also hard to ignore persistence sometimes.  

Having said that, next weeks system does appear to have some differences so we'll have to see how things pan out.

The old saying with persistence forecasting is that you will get a high percentage of your days correct, but when you bust, you bust spectacularly, so persistence scores are generally terrible because the magnitude of the busts are really high.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The old saying with persistence forecasting is that you will get a high percentage of your days correct, but when you bust, you bust spectacularly, so persistence scores are generally terrible because the magnitude of the busts are really high.

I agree.  I just remember professors talking about persistence when I was in school and saying that unless you reason it was best to go with persistence.  Granted that was back in the 80s but I would think it still would have some value.  I would never say that you should call for the same events over and over because you're right, it's going to change at some point but worth taking into consideration unless there is other evidence IMHO.

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7 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I agree.  I just remember professors talking about persistence when I was in school and saying that unless you reason it was best to go with persistence.  Granted that was back in the 80s but I would think it still would have some value.  I would never say that you should call for the same events over and over because you're right, it's going to change at some point but worth taking into consideration unless there is other evidence IMHO.

My point was more to the fact that people say.."that's not going to happen..won't work out..." in the face of something obvious in every piece of guidance. March 4th last year. Everyone thought congrats PF a few days earlier....and yes I admit I was one of them. We saw that all winter with the NNE epic snows. It turned into one of the top prolific short duration snow events I've ever had.

I agree it can work out. I remember feeling like that in 2012. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong. For once, I feel like maybe we can actually get some winter after next week. There is some evidence for it. 

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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if Nov will end up colder than Jan? It might be close lol

:lol: Closer than it ought.  However, even after my coldest Novie of 22 here, it would take about 35° AN today thru the 31st to get there.  Finishing Jan at +5, with not one but two rainers, is bad enough

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