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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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54 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture

This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out 

One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track 

The end of February 2010 storm, I believe it was the 25th-26th, Hunter received five feet, give or take a few inches, from that storm. A buddy of mine skiing there at the time and skies most of the northeast said it was the most snow he's ever seen otg at base level.

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

True. We’ll see how it shakes out. What I said wasn’t false though. The storm itself wasn’t as impressive, from a collective standpoint. I’m not going to argue rain snow lines 6 days out 

Nor am I going to quibble over intensity nuances on a deterministic solution. Same idea RE general storm evolution.

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Not all that impressed with the 00z suite so far. GFS was a good storm inland but it had a more progressive look to everything...which was probably a good thing on that run because the ULL initially was pretty far west at a higher latitude...almost sitting north of PIT. 

That's been the theme at 00z. ULL is too far north & west for my liking....still pending euro suite though. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not all that impressed with the 00z suite so far. GFS was a good storm inland but it had a more progressive look to everything...which was probably a good thing on that run because the ULL initially was pretty far west at a higher latitude...almost sitting north of PIT. 

That's been the theme at 00z. ULL is too far north & west for my liking....still pending euro suite though. 

I didn't see that on the GEFS mean...GEM ens mean, I did...nothing drastic, but north...

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't see that on the GEFS mean...GEM ens mean, I did...nothing drastic, but north...

GEFS mean was already bringing the ULL in at a decently north trajectory and we didn't get any help. I agree it didn't change much from 18z mean, but we want that to trend toward the EPS. Ukie looked like crap though we don't get ensembles for it.

OP Euro is actually looking pretty good track-wise here at 00z for interior SNE. Wish it was a little cooler but that's pretty irrelevant at this time frame. 

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At this stage the only importance when it comes to agreement is that there is agreement on a storm and agreement that it can be a rather significant one...when focusing on just those two aspects there is pretty decent agreement and a pretty strong signal. In terms of any agreement right now on any other aspect it's all minute and really insignificant. There are going to be subtle changes/differences over the next 72-96 hours that any agreement we see now (outside of a few features) really means nothing. 

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18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this stage the only importance when it comes to agreement is that there is agreement on a storm and agreement that it can be a rather significant one...when focusing on just those two aspects there is pretty decent agreement and a pretty strong signal. In terms of any agreement right now on any other aspect it's all minute and really insignificant. There are going to be subtle changes/differences over the next 72-96 hours that any agreement we see now (outside of a few features) really means nothing. 

We are in ‘agreement’.

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