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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't like this one at all.

I do.  Despite what the models are showing right now, I'm feeling this one.  I think in a day or so we will see positions reversed on some of those high fiving tonight and some of those singing the blues.  I don't envision a tuck on this.  The 18z EPS may be giving the first hints of the block to the north hanging tough and forcing this further east.  We need to see a few more runs though to confirm.

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13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I do.  Despite what the models are showing right now, I'm feeling this one.  I think in a day or so we will see positions reversed on some of those high fiving tonight and some of those singing the blues.  I don't envision a tuck on this.  The 18z EPS may be giving the first hints of the block to the north hanging tough and forcing this further east.  We need to see a few more runs though to confirm.

I should have been more clear, I'm talking about this area up here.

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56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would feel better where you are, Inland areas well away from the coast would be ok, I just don't like the lat where H5 wants to track, Then the slide ENE at the surface, I've seen this movie before.

I had to re-read your post a couple times as I’m catching up

bc I respect your opinion and knowledge

I see you think areas in SVT SNH and Rte 2  mass elevated and inland look good?

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I had to re-read your post a couple times as I’m catching up

bc I respect your opinion and knowledge

I see you think areas in SVT SNH and Rte 2  mass elevated and inland look good?

Thanks, Right now, Yes, That would be my pick of an area i would favor, The biggest issue is the air mass for coastal areas, Maybe with a better HP position some of that can be overcome.

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I'm liking the 1992 analog more and more actually ...

From my spacial relationship observations the 500 mb wobbling around down to 528 dm looks a tad deeper as a mid-lvl system, then '92, but taking into account climo that's probably proportional.   They also both taking tracks not demonstratively different to be all that distracting, while being quasi cut-off.   There is also some simlarities in the mass of the +PP/orientation over eastern Ontario - at least > 50% likeness.  

This is in totality enough similar in my mind not to toss the notion - I mean ...not that anyone is, just sayn'

But jesus christ what a run of that model...  That sucker had three blockbusters... talking a lot of people going quite far toward ...shall we say, adjusting their seasonal snow fall deficits.  Heh.

Re the first this weekend...I'm more comfortable giving NW RI to the western subburbs of Boston as the real rain cat-paw -vs- snow transition axis when factoring for GFS bl thermal handling, and perhaps the last 6 hours then collapses SE to clock interior SE zones with CCB as it pivots out.  Probably too detailed? But, I'm using basing that on this one run. I'm sure correction needs vary depending on which cycle we see.

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d like to see the high keep trending in a more westward/favorable position. Need all the cold air available even if the h5 tracks S of LI. We have a shot though, and that’s good enough.

 Yeah, you do not want to rely on needing a wound up bomb dynamically cooling you.   If it’s going to be a more robust high you will have a better idea by 12z Wednesday runs. 

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Also, the individual GEFs members have had occasional bombs with this thing.  The operational just hasn't put up a solution quite a vigorous, but this 18z run was about 6 mb short of nicking RI ... 

I still echo my sentiments from earlier that there may be minor, albeit sensitive sampling/assilation concerns as this total wave space is previously almost entirely contained over the Pac oceanic basin.

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E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture

This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out 

One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track 

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20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

E NY Elevations (W of Albany) , E Slope Berks and ORH hills look prime at this early juncture

This storm.. if it is gonna be decent duration May require a weenie hotel stay if ASH is gonna be slop or left out 

One of most under-Rated spots (prolly) due to its distance is the Hunter Mountain area . They can get 40” around 2 K in long lee duration deep easterly flow and being further from ocean helped them in that March 2018 Nor’easter where inland SNE (outside of extreme W SNE ) never flipped despite a wonderful track 

Mohawk Trail SP (Charlemont/Savoy border) has year round cabins if you are feeling adventurous.

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