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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually some marginal wet snow over interior that run despite that way west initial ULL. Won't take much correction to get that better....

Hence my prior post regarding future frames.  If it can push eastward and re-develop, that may save a lot more from the marine puke.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Hence my prior post regarding future frames.  If it can push eastward and re-develop, that may save a lot more from the marine puke.

That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did. 

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The low is tracking further to the south compared to the previous run.  So why declare defeat already over 130 hours out?  And even if it turns out to be a non winter as it has been for so many mother nature made that decision to balance out the over abundance of snow that occurred in more consecutive recent winters.  We could all go through this again next winter. Or maybe just some of us.  Either way mother nature does not care about our feelings.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That weird fujiwara interaction with the second shortwave early on really caused it to slingshot west...ULL ended up over PIT around 132h...we want that more like philly or the Delmarva. If we get that, then we'll see a significantly colder solution. That's what the 06z EPS did. 

We're going to need to watch what occurs over the west coast.  It appeared as though there was piece of energy that dropped south that sharpened the downstream ridging allowing that secondary s/w do dive further south.

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7 minutes ago, Ogmios said:

The low is tracking further to the south compared to the previous run.  So why declare defeat already over 130 hours out?  And even if it turns out to be a non winter as it has been for so many mother nature made that decision to balance out the over abundance of snow that occurred in more consecutive winters.  We could all go through this again next winter. Or maybe just some of us.

You're asking for an analytic perspective through an emotional/neurotic filter -

 

For the general:  The GGEM and GFS are not altogether very appealing, though still the take away is that there is a system to monitor. The Euro is arriving, interestingly ...better, for winter enthusiasts...

The variability in the 850 mb thermal layout, and in fact ...the totality of it across mid and lower latitudes of N/A through next weekend, is part and parcel headaches in a spring pattern. One run adds a degree...the next shaves.  Cold rain and cat's paws, then the next run becomes a grid concern... and around and around we go.  Live by spring lows ... die by spring lows.  Obviously we are not technically "in" spring, but that doesn't matter to the vagaries of the wind.  It's spring this week, it may be winter next month, regardless of silly human conventions ...etc..etc.. But it is not atypical to spring "bowling" season, to have these lows pocket their own critical thickness and it comes down to timing dynamic pulsation and other nuances as to whether parachutes or more are realized to the surface.  

This Euro's track at 500 mb is a climo gem for big snows, ...and the slow movement and the cooler 850 mb profile by ~ 2 ticks across the board, is a critical difference and this solution bends conifers and sags power lines most likely. 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We're going to need to watch what occurs over the west coast.  It appeared as though there was piece of energy that dropped south that sharpened the downstream ridging allowing that secondary s/w do dive further south.

This...you can see that pretty clearly comparing the 0z and 12z euro runs. They begin to diverge substantially right around the Thursday time frame...and given this is still only Monday that shows how much of a window we have until this picture really becomes clearer. Given the pieces involved here it may not be until the end of the week when we really have a clear idea...especially with phasing being involved. But once it becomes clear how the ridge/trough evolve Wednesday/Thursday we'll have a much better idea 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're asking for an analytic perspective through an emotional/neurotic fixation -

 

For the general:  The GGEM and GFS are not altogether very appealing, though still the take away is that there is a system to monitor. The Euro is arriving, interestingly ...better, for winter enthusiasts...

The variability in the 850 mb thermal layout, and in fact ...the totality of it across mid and lower latitudes of N/A through next weekend, is part and parcel headaches in a spring patter.  Live by spring lows ... die by spring lows.  Obviously we are not technically "in" spring, but that doesn't matter to the vagaries of the wind.  It's spring this week, it may be winter next month, regardless of silly human conventions ...etc..etc.. But it is not atypical to spring "bowling" season, to have these lows pocket their own critical thickness and it comes down to timing dynamic pulsation and other nuances as to whether parachutes or more are realized to the surface.  

This Euro's track at 500 mb is a climo gem for big snows, ...and the slow movement and the cooler 850 mb profile by ~ 2 ticks across the board, is a critical difference and this solution bends conifers and sags power lines most likely. 

Can envision every boob in the region just  sagging to ground . Collecting on chests and d battery ing them right down. 

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