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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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30 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Synoptic wave development. Disturbance cuts off quickly = Minimal downstream UL ridging. 

Most ironic thing to me is the fact that SNE folks are the ones complainin’ most about this potential, meanwhile NNE is where the greatest “non-event“ risk lies...

With time this is looking more like an SNE and Northern mid Atlantic snowstorm to me, but everyone in those areas focused on marginal temps that won’t matter if the Synoptics pan out. 

Kind of have to agree with this.

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4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

We are? That’s been the theme mostly this winter, up & in... I get that this could be the most likely outcome, but no, we are not due.

In the grand scheme of the last several years, yes. For here. I’ve pulled bombs out of you know where, and have been fortunate. 

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

CFS weeklies kicked the better look down the line. 500mb looked better at week 3 but surface temps high. Week 4 still has a trough in Alaska but managed to put a trough in the east with cold temps. 5 and 6 look great. That Alaska trough has to move at some point doesn't it 

Too far out to worry

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2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

if we are measuring this from a decadal standpoint sure, I was more speaking on the tenure of this particular season.

That’s usually what happens. You’ll have seasons where the tenure speaks. From a snow anomaly standpoint, we should expect one of these seasons soon, if not now. 

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There is definitely potential. Obvious OP runs like the 06z GFS show it but you can see it in the EPS probability maps. 

Marginal airmass means interior and elevated areas are favored. Still, we've got some issues to overcome...mainly making sure the timing is good, but also the ULL track itself...a few of these runs are looping the ULL up a bit too far west initially before it spins east...we eventually flip to snow on those but the initial surge is rain because of the westward track...it doesn't tap into the "cold" to our north and instead draws in a bunch of Atlantic air from the ESE. 

 

So in short, keep a skeptical view of this system but definitely worth tracking because the ceiling on this one is pretty high. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, 06z EPS cooled a nice tick. Only goes out to 144 so can't see beyond that...

 

IMG_4357.PNG

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

CNE/ SNE is favored in this. Especially hilly terrain. It keeps digging . Don’t discount us 

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Love the look of closing off 500 as the ULL tracks through the region...obviously still too early to determine where the track will be but it's a great signal. Also, it's a marginal airmass ahead of it but thankfully it isn't too crazy warm. maybe a few degrees C? PWATS approaching 1'' too in within the inflow of warm air...plenty of moisture to work with should that signal hold. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at that east inflow. Slow mover, transient block in Canada. I would imagine that look would be prolific in east upslope areas like Orh hills, Monads, Greens, Berks. Where have we seen this before....

Yes. 06z EPS would destroy the interior...esp east slopes. 

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