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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could any mets comment on why the Euro ensembles puked all over themselves in the last week regarding temps? I know Scott and perhaps Tip were mentioning this pretty early on.  It was disconcerting watching them push deep cold a week ago then do a remarkable turnaround. 

Excited Pacific jet, possibly MJO driven. That can happen. It only takes one s/w to break down the ridge and the dam sort of breaks if you will. I will say not every member was on board. The mean though skewed the look to more -EPO ridging. Ironically, the GFS op was never really on board. It kept showing a PAC driven look.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the GEFS and EPS below. They are both pretty bullish on a system somewhere near us next weekend but you can see the marginal temps too. It could easily be rain on a more west track or even a whiff SE. 

I suspect the fate of this system will drastically change perceptions of the pattern regardless. 

 

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I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting  a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting  a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

That doesn’t look too bad to mine weenie eyes.

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20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting  a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. 

If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west. 

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The whole point was Scooter spends far too much time looking at and obsessing about each model run. And a deeper dive would reveal it’s because he’s worried when it’s 42 tomorrow in S Wey and the west winds melted what falls today that his kids will be trapped inside. For him, when there’s no snow and nothing to track and it’s too cold and wet and children are stuck inside... emotionally he simply cannot handle that. It stresses him out to the Nth degree.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well with a better airmass we'd have more wiggle room on track. Say for example, we get the system tracking a bit west into PA and it's trying to develop off the Delmarva or jersey coast...a marginal airmass might cause problems in that scenario for SNE. But a colder airmass and that's all snow all the way. 

If the storm is already fully developed at the benchmark, then I agree it doesn't matter so much, but that is just the mean and it isn't showing all those miller B/redeveloping scenarios on storms that initially try to go a little further west. 

Yea but at/near peak climo means antecedent airmass matters much less if we get a deep coastal low. Late January means deep cold to tap is close by...I think too much focus on temp at onset, and missing bigger picture. 

This also has characteristics of a Miller A  with subsequent phase. The sub tropical jet appears to be involved early on in this setup...May seem like a minor detail but reason I’m brining this up, is bc I think this evolution has a much better chance of being dynamic enough to quickly overcome any antecedent airmass issues...

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin is doing what I call passive melting. It’s a cute psychological experiment. It’s basically internal melting, but put the blame on the person who’s information is not conforming to your opinions. 

 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The whole point was Scooter spends far too much time looking at and obsessing about each model run. And a deeper dive would reveal it’s because he’s worried when it’s 42 tomorrow in S Wey and the west winds melted what falls today that his kids will be trapped inside. For him, when there’s no snow and nothing to track and it’s too cold and wet and children are stuck inside... emotionally he simply cannot handle that. It stresses him out to the Nth degree.

This is like some high quality, 8-mile battle rapping here.

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Thursday and Friday...

GEFS/EPS guidance continue to be in very good agreement in showing
upper level trough departing and some upper level ridging building
into the Northeast.  The result will be temps moderating to above
normal levels.  Highs on Thu should reach the 40s in many locations
and perhaps around 50 in some locations by Fri.  A ridge of high
pressure will also result in dry weather persisting for the
remainder of the work week.

:wub:

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Salesman. It looked good, but everyone mentioned the caveats. Now, It looks pretty ugly as modeled. That’s the key phrase. However, I think there is support for the ugly pacific. MJO gone wild.

Yep. The wave in p5 (kelvin) is gaining strength and will be the main wave once the forcing weakens in wpac. 

701A0868-1DA1-426A-9CDE-066A0FC5C956.png

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