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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s ugly. 5-10F+ departures as modeled after this week.

As modeled? So you bought the models when they showed an epic pattern.. they burned you.. now you’re buying them when they end winter. Honestly I think you look at the weather too much. Step back a bit. It’s making you super stressed out . Stay the course . No knee jerk 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

As modeled? So you bought the models when they showed an epic pattern.. they burned you.. now you’re buying them when they end winter. Honestly I think you look at the weather too much. Step back a bit. It’s making you super stressed out . Stay the course . No knee jerk 

Salesman. It looked good, but everyone mentioned the caveats. Now, It looks pretty ugly as modeled. That’s the key phrase. However, I think there is support for the ugly pacific. MJO gone wild.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Salesman. It looked good, but everyone mentioned the caveats. Now, It looks pretty ugly as modeled. That’s the key phrase. However, I think there is support for the ugly pacific. MJO gone wild.

There were def not any caveats mentioned. None. All mets were on board and sitting fat and happy. The point is the models were wrong and changed. They’ll be wrong this time and we’ll see them change again. So you stay the course, don’t melt and understand it will snow and not be +5-10 the next three weeks 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were def not any caveats mentioned. None. All mets were on board and sitting fat and happy. The point is the models were wrong and changed. They’ll be wrong this time and we’ll see them change again. So you stay the course, don’t melt and understand it will snow and not be +5-10 the next three weeks 

Sit on this. :weenie:

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were def not any caveats mentioned. None. All mets were on board and sitting fat and happy. The point is the models were wrong and changed. They’ll be wrong this time and we’ll see them change again. So you stay the course, don’t melt and understand it will snow and not be +5-10 the next three weeks 

This is why I don’t really believe it until I see it. 2001-02 and other awful winters also had a lot of long range false hopes. 

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were def not any caveats mentioned. None. All mets were on board and sitting fat and happy. The point is the models were wrong and changed. They’ll be wrong this time and we’ll see them change again. So you stay the course, don’t melt and understand it will snow and not be +5-10 the next three weeks 

Lol being 11-15 days out is always a caveat. Everyone should know that.

The newer guidance looks pretty unstable in that time frame so I wouldn't jump off the bridge over it. 

But I suspect many will if the D8-10 period doesn't produce a wintry storm. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dudes gone. 

It would do you well to listen. A lot of people actually look at everything and try to give their best judgement on what may happen. It’s pretty ugly, but could be active. When it’s peak climo, things can get snowy, but overall....I’m not a fan of the look. 

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33 minutes ago, Hazey said:


For them? Yes. I just use the term figuratively.

Yes, the literal Old Testament BECS passage reads thus: "And the Lord was very roth with the doubters who cried "torch", yea, and in his righteous vengeance he sent unto His people the Mauler, as told in the Scriptures. And Manitoba did birth the beast, and the Gulf Stream did forge its hoary heart, and lo, the clouds did burst over New England, and the wind did scream, and the knickers were buried, and the waters did crash upon the shore, and when the dawn awakened all unrepentant doubters were smited, in God's mercy, yea. And from the chosen faithful of Harwich and Moosup and Wilmington and Tolland Massif there arose a glorious cry, and there was much rejoicing." Here endeth the lesson. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It would do you well to listen. A lot of people actually look at everything and try to give their best judgement on what may happen. It’s pretty ugly, but could be active. When it’s peak climo, things can get snowy, but overall....I’m not a fan of the look. 

In all seriousness, I think you are spending too much time looking at weather and obsessing over it.  Instead of ebb and flow as eps looks good one run and not so good the next... just don’t look for a few days. Get your head clear 

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yes, the literal Old Testament BECS passage reads thus: "And the Lord was very roth with the doubters who cried "torch", yea, and in his righteous vengeance he sent unto His people the Mauler, as told in the Scriptures. And Manitoba did birth the beast, and the Gulf Stream did forge its hoary heart, and lo, the clouds did burst over New England, and the wind did scream, and the knickers were buried, and the waters did crash upon the shore, and all unrepentant doubters were smited, in God's mercy, yea. And from the chosen faithful of Harwich and Moosup and Wilmington and Tolland Massif there arose a glorious cry, and there was much rejoicing." Here endeth the lesson. 

And the Pope looked around him and smiled and said "it is good".

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Here's the GEFS and EPS below. They are both pretty bullish on a system somewhere near us next weekend but you can see the marginal temps too. It could easily be rain on a more west track or even a whiff SE. 

I suspect the fate of this system will drastically change perceptions of the pattern regardless. 

 

IMG_4331.PNG

IMG_4332.PNG

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In all seriousness, I think you are spending too much time looking at weather and obsessing over it.  Instead of ebb and flow as eps looks good one run and not so good the next... just don’t look for a few days. Get your head clear 

In all seriousness, stick to sales.

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