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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What happened to the 2015 like pattern...went poof?

The odds of 2015 repeating are very low.  That was certainly an hisitoric stretch. I would have to take a look at the 2 volume set of Early American Winters to find comparable stretches of snow accumulation.  Certainly 1717 qualifies. 

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1 minute ago, blizzard24 said:

 to many you an tv weather people change every model run  . i see above normal snowfall between now into feb for i 95 and sne area with big storms too. the only weather people i like is jb and brad field and two others .

JB calls for a cold and snowy winter prior to every winter. A 3rd grader can do the same and be right as often as JB is.  And I am sure JB appreciates you having him on your "like" list.....

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes....trended into more of just a decent western ridge pattern with this relaxation that comes first in the D7-10 range....though we still may score a storm threat in there....remains to be seen. This is if we go on the EPS.

GEFS are still showing a really good pattern but the EPS has trended pretty hard the past two runs away from the EPO/PNA combo.

 

There's probably a lot of struggle with the strong wave in the tropic that is causing these swings.

The backing away from PNA doesn't suprise me.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maybe it is.  I don't see it on TT or Pivotal yet.

I think those only go out to 240 hours.

At any rate, there is all of the sudden a lot of volatility and my guess is the tropical PAC is giving guidance fits.

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36 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It seems like while the winter -NAO has been very scarce in recent years, it has usually delivered very well whenever it happened. Maybe that’s what our new climate baseline favors, so I can only imagine how a winter dominated by the -NAO would turn out.

I have read some research (unfortunately I don't have a link) theorizing that the best blocking occurs 1 to 2 years after the solar cycle minimum...for instance 09-10, and 10-11.  If that holds true, look out for the next two winters.

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2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have read some research (unfortunately I don't have a link) theorizing that the best blocking occurs 1 to 2 years after the solar cycle minimum...for instance 09-10, and 10-11.  If that holds true, look out for the next two winters.

I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well.

 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I fully believe it’s just a transient shift Days 8-11 and it may not be as awful as the EPS if the GEFS or GEPS are even  half right 

Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances.

 

And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances.

 

And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see.

For the winter weather enthusiasts, it's frustrating, since it's like a broken record of Winter being perpetually 10 days away.  This weekends systems is OK, but then left to wait another week or more for the mere possibility of a storm.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well.

 

Well it does just not quite when we want it. Is November/March considered winter? Oh well hope everyone enjoys their March HECS this year.

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10 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

We do this same rigmarole  every winter....."looks good in 10/15 days"....then Poof....it's gone as you get closer.  Great patterns aren't foreseeable beyond like day 7 at most, sorry.  They more often then not just pop up out of nowhere. 

Lol, this is totally not true...we saw most great patterns out in advance....2013, 2015, Mar 2018, etc....they do sometimes get pushed back, and sometimes they fail to materialize altogether, but it's definitely not true that we didn't see those types of patterns until inside 7 days.

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Here's the crazy part.....we were all psyched when a few days ago it(EPS) showed the great pattern in the 8-11.  Now a few days later it's showing us a not so good pattern all of a sudden, so it could just as easily be wrong with the bad look, as it was (potentially)wrong with the great look.  I mean these long range progs have been atrocious lately.  I have very little faith in them this season whether they show a good look or a bad one.  

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here's the crazy part.....we were all psyched when a few days ago it(EPS) showed the great pattern in the 8-11.  Now a few days later it's showing us a not so good pattern all of a sudden, so it could just as easily be wrong with the bad look, as it was (potentially)wrong with the great look.  I mean these long range progs have been atrocious lately.  I have very little faith in them this season whether they show a good look or a bad one.  

Yeah, but the even crazier part is when the 8-10 shows good stuff that goes bad, the bad is rarely ever wrong. Rarely do bad signals improve in the 8-10 day timeframe, usually if the 8-10 is ugly, it stays ugly.  The old it can only get worse from here mantra...

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58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've heard the same..makes sense...I mean, what, 7 consecutive positive NAO winters? The regression radicals can't have the weenie and eat it, too....NAO needs to regress, as well.

 

79-95 was mostly all positive NAO winters.  I think 83-84 and 84-85 averaged negative but barely so.  

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