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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More of a SWFE right now.

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. 

It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. 

It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals. 

Yes, Foot is generally the ceiling, Unless this morphs into more of a Miller B,  A lot of these end up in the 6-10" range, I would say as modeled right now, Its probably on the higher end of the ceiling.

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. Got plenty of juice but it's hard to get more than a foot in those. Maybe some enhanced areas get 15ish. 

It could trend more redeveloper obviously. Then we could be talking about bigger totals. 

Yea, never forecast over 1' with open mid levels or mid levels to NW.

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I’m kind of bullish on the weekend deal. Most models are really drilling the low well north and west of the area and still delivering a significant thump ~6”+ for almost everyone save for the cape and beaches.

If this follows the path of similar storms this year... I’d expect that to become less pronounced, which should lead to snowier solutions, or less mix issues. 
 

just a guess 6 days out 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still selling those ridiculous totals unless it morphs into a more legit Miller B coastal. 

The thing is that things got unworldly jet max blasting by West is just under our latitude over 120 kn in mid levels… Frontogenics would be off the charts and probably be getting mesoscale QPF clusters that would actually make those totals at local baands. The GFSQPF chart is probably not going to pick any of that up. Thus  it’s probably right for the wrong reason at a few points

 

Obviously that’s predicate on the assumption that run’s right otherwise but we don’t even know that

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