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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)

The ridging in the NE causes the storm to ridge west of us and pump in warm air.  Of course right after I posted this the Euro kept heights lower with next weeks ocean storm. If we could relax some of that ridging, then there might be a chance.

Euro 204.png

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Wanted to explain what happened to degrade our chances of snow next week.  Barring a shift in the north atlantic pattern (and I touched on that yesterday) next week is looking very unlikely to produce snowfall.  The guidance miscalculated what happens with the vortex in the north Atlantic the next few days and that sets off a negative chain reaction for our snow chances.  

From 7 days out the guidance actually nailed the current look pretty much.  They might not have had the WAA EXACTLY where it will be...but missing a discreet detail like that by only 100 miles from 7 days away is NOT a significant error and well within acceptable range.   Sucks for us but...what happens after this was due to an error in one major feature. 

Below is what was supposed to happen...That atlantic vortex was supposed to slide across the atlantic, the "storm" this weekend would move into its place...and  the flow over the top of that would pump the ridge over Canada and end up centered as shown below.  

Supposed1.thumb.png.02cdc68e5263d1b0d2f05b20a43e0e9d.png

But that isn't what is happening.  Instead that Atlantic vortex is going to phase into the TPV over Greenland...strengthening it and anchoring it over Baffin Island...that then also absorbs the storm this weekend up into it...creating a vortex that was not supposed to be there over Baffin...which alters the flow forcing the ridge to shift further southeast...and be centered over the Northeast instead of near Hudson Bay.  

Whatdoeshappen2.thumb.png.b83b5eb9de4d4b26235ffdc81166fa2e.png

So we end up with this look....instead of a ridge centered back in Central Canada.  That of course shifts the trough well off the east coast.  One major miscalculation in a significant feature in the north Atlantic degraded our chances of snow severely.  

happens4.thumb.png.a05006fdeca12abac0207d4e4737eab3.png

Of course right after I post this the op euro says...wait a minute.  There are enough random runs within the ensembles and an occasional op run...that manage to bring down heights to our northeast enough...(as I touched on the other day) that the threat is not completely dead.  But it's unlikely IMO... it would need to overcome the ridge being centered too far southeast of where we want it.   But guidance could trend back the way we need it...but as of right now the look above is why what was a very good look 5 days ago became mediocre at best.  

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The day 10-15 window still looks workable.   This is from the 0z EPS but the look across guidance is similar

Ideally we would want a little lower heights near the blue x and the ridge centered near the red x...but those are not big shifts for that range...and that is being really picky.  This has flaws...this is not a cold pattern, the extension of the vortex into AK is cutting off any transport of true arctic air into the US, and the likely problem here is temps.  But mid winter...we can sometime overcome that with a good track and marginal temps.  

5.thumb.png.f28e6d3a38196c149a2fa0c4424e3365.png

This is about as good a pressure profile as we can get for a day 10-15 period.

EPSpressure.thumb.png.d0138557966be934d4f4de3256613d1b.png

And the snowfall mean shows where the chance of snow is during this period...again temps are the possible issue

EPSsnowfall.thumb.png.a441c52413a2e8af6c2b8c81924ea1cb.png

It's not a perfect or great look...but its not the worst and we have lucked into snow in this look before.  Just need some things to break out way this time.

 

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After that...where we go into Feb really depends on what happens with the TPV.

This look is universal across guidance at day 15

The CFS and Euro weeklies both agree on how this evolves...the extension of the vortex near AK lifts, the ridge under it builds up into the EPO domain...and this dumps cold into the CONUS and centers a trough in the Ohio Valley.  This is actually a good look...look at the EPO snow mean in the climo thread.

End1.thumb.png.b4071c98e2919583cf0b01d7e94fed95.png

However...the long range guidance is suspect and if it is wrong about the vortex lifting near AK...this is an alternative progression if the vortex remains anchored the way it is day 15 and the NAO remains positive (and NOTHING indicates it wont).  

gameover.thumb.png.eb2e49b3fb19312492a0e9da7095fbe7.png

The analogs to the day 11 look are split between how that evolves with about half going the way the weekly guidance suggests...and half going the "gave over" way above.  So...I guess the question is...do ya feel lucky?

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Guess if it’s not going to snow then might as well be warm.  Hate saying that but starting to change my preference.  

amazing how models never bust when there is warm in the long range...but totally the opposite when it starts sniffing a cold pattern.   We are back to square 1

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Just now, Ji said:

amazing how models never bust when there is warm in the long range...but totally the opposite when it starts sniffing a cold pattern.   We are back to square 1

They do. They broke the pattern down erroneously several times in years with a cold base stare.  PD2 was rain in the long range and not even close because I was up at PSU and it was all rain even there on the day 10 MRF.  2014 several times guidance showed a false warm up. But there are less opportunities for that because the base state is warm most years. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course right after I post this the op euro says...wait a minute.  There are enough random runs within the ensembles and an occasional op run...that manage to bring down heights to our northeast enough...(as I touched on the other day) that the threat is not completely dead.  But it's unlikely IMO... it would need to overcome the ridge being centered too far southeast of where we want it.   But guidance could trend back the way we need it...but as of right now the look above is why what was a very good look 5 days ago became mediocre at best.  

So you're saying that it's unlikely unless something changes, or you don't see things more favorably the next few runs? (trying to figure out if we need to just toss this one or not...would be a shame seeing as it may be our last shot--at least for now. And you guys don't sound too optimistic about early February right now so...hope this can trend better!)

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope it’s degrading run after run as more members agree on a AK vortex with +++ NAO. It’s almost impossible to overcome that combo. The Hudson ridge is the only thing creating any slim hope. 

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)

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20 minutes ago, Mersky said:

 

Lol

I’m going to try really hard to say this respectfully but you really stretch the limits of patience.

Will is in New England.  He is analyzing the eps from their perspective. How did the pattern in 2001 work out around here last time?  And that was with way more blocking than is likely given the current NAM state.  

The EPS is worse for our snow chances than it was 48 hours ago.  For one there are less members with snow here.  While that can be a fluke in this case it’s in coordination with unfavorable changes in the longwave pattern.  

You’ve made posts like this several times here and in other regions peddling false equivalencies.  And I am not the first person to point it out or take issue with it.  Just a word of advice...the people here aren’t as stupid as you seem to think they are.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Mersky said:

You mean the same EPS that had it going into the COD in phase 5 this week??? How did that work out?? 

Might not work out.

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

CFS has nailed the MJO wave this month. Had it at high amplitude when the EPS were taking it into the COD. A bias of the EPS is to kill waves into the COD. Tread carefully hitching your wagon to the EPS MJO forecast 

C681A8D0-FB7A-40D0-AB95-2011A46AF159.gif

Who is doing the hitching here?

Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least  enough to troll PSU.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m going to try really hard to say this respectfully but you really stretch the limits of patience.

Will is in New England.  He is analyzing the eps from their perspective. How did the pattern in 2001 work out around here last time?  And that was with way more blocking than is likely given the current NAM state.  

The EPS is worse for our snow chances than it was 48 hours ago.  For one there are less members with snow here.  While that can be a fluke in this case it’s in coordination with unfavorable changes in the longwave pattern.  

You’ve made posts like this several times here and in other regions peddling false equivalencies.  And I am not the first person to point it out or take issue with it.  Just a word of advice...the people here aren’t as stupid as you seem to think they are.  

 

No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.

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22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)

Ok less extremes. Even if everything fails within the next 2 weeks we still have February and early March to score a better look and or a fluke snow. The odds of this being a good snowfall year are decreasing rapidly but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get anymore snow at all. Try the middle. It’s a nice place. 

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11 minutes ago, Mersky said:

CFS has nailed the MJO wave this month. Had it at high amplitude when the EPS were taking it into the COD. A bias of the EPS is to kill waves into the COD. Tread carefully hitching your wagon to the EPS MJO forecast 

C681A8D0-FB7A-40D0-AB95-2011A46AF159.gif

The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!!  I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!!  I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify 

C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS.

CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok less extremes. Even if everything fails within the next 2 weeks we still have February and early March to score a better look and or a fluke snow. The odds of this being a good snowfall year are decreasing rapidly but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get anymore snow at all. Try the middle. It’s a nice place. 

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...

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7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

How did this work out??? 

245529B4-6C82-4080-8D63-B1CD38669F9F.gif

Again with the false equivalency. No one even said the EPS was right. I said it degraded the pattern for snow chances the last few runs. It did. I don’t know if it’s right. It’s 10-15 days away. That range is like reading tarot cards. But you’re using a bait and switch tactic to deflect from the fact your last claim was assanine. 

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18 minutes ago, Mersky said:

How did this work out??? 

245529B4-6C82-4080-8D63-B1CD38669F9F.gif

Considering that that was a forecast for Jan 15, that yesterday was Jan 16, and the MJO position was this .... I’d say it worked out pretty damn good :lol: And yes if you follow the mean curve it didn’t die and curve, but the general movement for a 15 day forecast was great.

EAF138C7-D82A-4DC8-8FDC-35B64F29C714.thumb.jpeg.df3a0e074ddb71e5147c754441a6a0ab.jpeg

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