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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal. 

Wonder if it has to do with how it is handling this weekends storm. Maybe amped up weekend is causing next week fits on the eps.

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is pretty weak for the d10 deal. Majority of solutions that have a storm are too far east. There's a couple good hits but small minority. Safe to say there is little to no ens support for a blocked coastal. 

boy i hope we dont  go through another weenie dream period without a snowstorm.....

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37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is not a dream period imo. Storms will not come easy nor easily be all snow. It's a good pattern during primetime but it's several levels below a really good winter wx pattern. 

I’m a little more optimistic maybe but not over any one threat. I agree this isn’t the look where we have one storm with a high probability. But we seem to be facing the potential for a prolonged pattern that includes a favorable east based epo ridge/block, an arctic dump into the EASTERN US, and an active southern stream. If that has any legs at all we will have multiple opportunities and the odds of abject failure would take Cleveland Browns level ineptitude. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m a little more optimistic maybe but not over any one threat. I agree this isn’t the look where we have one storm with a high probability. But we seem to be facing the potential for a prolonged pattern that includes a favorable east based epo ridge/block, an arctic dump into the EASTERN US, and an active southern stream. If that has any legs at all we will have multiple opportunities and the odds of abject failure would take Cleveland Browns level ineptitude. 

That's the point I was trying to make. This isn't a Feb 10 or Jan 16 look where you just drool over the mean pattern and it's a matter of time before a miller A hits you. We could fail next weekend and blank out the next week and STILL be staring at multiple chances in the near future. That's a very good place to be. I hate discrete windows where if you miss out it could be days/weeks/months before another chance rolls along. The upcoming period looks far better than that. 

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's the point I was trying to make. This isn't a Feb 10 or Jan 16 look where you just drool over the mean pattern and it's a matter of time before a miller A hits you. We could fail next weekend and blank out the next week and STILL be staring at multiple chances in the near future. That's a very good place to be. I hate discrete windows where if you miss out it could be days/weeks/months before another chance rolls along. The upcoming period looks far better than that. 

I agree.  If you get some luck...this kind of pattern can actually be better from an "excitement" POV.  Obviously 2010 was the exception but that was a once in a lifetime thing... most big blocking patterns don't go down that way.  The double edged sword, and I know you know this... with a big arse NAO block is that we need the pattern to start to break down to hit a big storm...and then usually that means soon after we warm up and have to wait for a reshuffle.  Often a big block will recycle and give another shot later but its often not right away.  This pattern could throw opportunities at us rapid fire if we get the stj going and the trough axis aligns right.  So while the chances of a hit with any one storm aren't as high...this could offer more sustained entertainment in here.  See 2014/2015...  

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Update from Don S courtesy 33 :  

<<<<

Late afternoon thoughts...


1. Yesterday, the MJO reached Phase 5 at amplitude of 2.430 (a January record for Phase 5).


2. Historically, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8 at amplitude of 1.000 or above following its being in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above.


3. The idea of a pattern change featuring a trough in the means in the East remains on track.


15-day Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO peaks in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period:
01132020.jpg

 

>>>>

 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Find me a better D15+ fantasy op run... lol. Wow

gfs_z500a_nhem_65.png

18z Gefs goes suppression in the long range. Bone dry after the weekend storm through the end of the run. That is the most likely way we fail if we don’t snow. One run doesn’t worry me but we don’t want too much of a good thing. 

Day 8–6

F73E6691-A288-4A02-8DAD-87854F24DF32.thumb.png.6bd68145eb0ae8fe8c0da03e127c62f6.png

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z Gefs goes suppression in the long range. Bone dry after the weekend storm through the end of the run. That is the most likely way we fail if we don’t snow. One run doesn’t worry me but we don’t want too much of a good thing. 

Day 8–6

 

No biggie. Euro weeklies are cold to very cold in early Feb and AN qpf. We should be over climo by Valentine's day 

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