Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Guidance finally coming around to reality for this event. 1040 high in the right place with insitu damming will yield a more entrenched airmass. Models, particularly the globals are almost always underdone and or too aggressive on eroding this feature out. 

You made a great call on the last system! Excited to keep an eye on your interpretation of the models this week. Room for further improvement too? What would it take to keep the temps trending colder and also juice up that thump at the same time? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman Good analysis on the next window. I do find it comforting that even if that window sucks.... ens guidance looks sweet AF down the line. This is a cold/stormy/active look. Progressive flow but great height pattern in the atlantic to fight off cutters. Of course anytime the NAO is + a cutter can happen but if we aren't going to have a block I'll be perfectly happy with this look through mid March.

500h_anom.nh.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Start a new thread. We are 74 pages in on this one. 

this isn't a discussion thread for specific threats. its a Long-range thread. a thread for the weekend threat will be created in time. thanks. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hard to see through all of the fog on the models, but SLP positioning seems to be slowly improving and many models are trending toward keeping that 1030-1040 high in place longer. We definitely won’t see all snow, but don’t discount 2” (closer to 95) to 4” (usual cold spots near Westminster etc) of snow nw of the big cities before the transition

Going to be harder to erode that airmass than models are depicting. Sadly we have no blocking in place to help us out, but we should see a solid few hours of flakes for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman Good analysis on the next window. I do find it comforting that even if that window sucks.... ens guidance looks sweet AF down the line. This is a cold/stormy/active look. Progressive flow but great height pattern in the atlantic to fight off cutters. Of course anytime the NAO is + a cutter can happen but if we aren't going to have a block I'll be perfectly happy with this look through mid March.

500h_anom.nh.png

You want to feel warm and fuzzy...look at the slug of moisture coming out of the gulf at the end of the 12z gefs run right into entrenched cold air. 

Before that there were discreet threats around next Tuesday and Friday/Saturday 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ticking colder/stronger with the high leading into the 18th. Very noticeable by hr96. Should be a decent run (famous last words)

Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition?
 

Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs   

edit - Newest euro definitely trended stronger, more north and therefor pumps the ridge more. Not a good look. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, jayyy said:

Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition?
 

Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs   
 

Like I've said before. Looks like a bread and butter west track/eroding CAD situation. Odds favor some frozen precip. Whether or not it's a memorable or "good" event will depend on how much QPF hits while the column works. Euro is stepping back but it's going to wobble around every 12 hours for a few days. We'll know by Wed if it's going to be a decent snow event or a quick small hit that gets washed away. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...