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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

Not sure why when this is trending in a good direction, and could have 3-6" upside when all is said and done, wit ha nice saturday morning scene nontheless

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

See below

 

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

 

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 

 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

Will be awaiting for the afternoon EPS with bated breathe.  I am hoping for a more favorable West Based NAO.  If so, might be tracking at long leads. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 

It's there on all guidance yes.  They all agree that a piece of the block in Canada will split and dive southeast and create some ridging a bit too far south than we would want for a short time.  But how that plays out isnt' all hostile like the GFS op.  The GFS really went crazy with that ridge and allowed the next wave to dig in and cut off to our west.  That said...even with everything going wrong it still ended up only 100 miles from a big coastal storm.  An inland runner at day 11 is not that big a deal.  There are lots of options how that plays out...the EPS has quite a few where that ridge actually acts to suppress a system to our south...and a few big hits in that range.  It's undecided how that ridge interacts with the other players.  It depends on how strong a piece dives into the northeast vs remains up in Canada.  More ridging "behind" that wave instead of in front and suddenly we have a 980 low off Ocean City instead of over Annapolis.  

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m busy at work and can’t look much. How’s the next storm looking? I’m more interested in it than this one. 

Why look at a storm 11 days away when the models are jumping all over the place on this first one? There is very little chance they have the second storm even close to right yet. 

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS has a dryslot, probably due to down-sloping, across VA but I would have to look at the exact wind flow to see.  But that kind of dryslot, while possible, is dependent on the exact wind trajectory to be correct.   The lighter precip rates also negatively impact the thermal profile as less mixing out of the warm layer.  The result is ugly there...but that is not the kind of meso scale feature the GFS is going to get right at this range so don't worry, the larger more important factors all broke our way this run.  

Yeah.. I know! But we have been screwed like this before, so I cannot completely ignore it! I do agree that the details are far from being figured out.

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

What a weenie run... lol

JRYS61K.png

 

I love when you start seeing more blues and pink South of us versus North,  a sure indication better times are a coming. I see a few of those solutions here, hopefully more in the days to come. 

 

 

 

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So, does this appear to get washed out with rain? I TT isn’t working at the moment, and i just don’t like pivotal for too much... Some of those appear to give the whole area (Including Central[ish] VA some snow, which is nice. It also seems the rain following it (if any) may dry up or collect holes before it reaches this far east(?) I just don’t want it to be washed away because that would be an unfortunate start to a week, (A possibly very busy one!) Fun times ahead!

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Cobb data from the 12Z GFS run. Huge drop in surface temps from previous runs:

DCA

200118/1100Z 119  16006KT  28.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
200118/1200Z 120  14007KT  27.4F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    6:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
200118/1500Z 123  15009KT  28.8F  SNPL    1:1| 0.2|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.216    2:1|  0.6|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.28   11| 89|  0
200118/1800Z 126  18009KT  31.5F  SNPL    1:1| 0.2|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.229    1:1|  0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.50   13| 87|  0
200118/2100Z 129  17012KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207    1:1|  0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.71    0|  0|100

IAD

200118/1000Z 118  15007KT  27.9F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
200118/1100Z 119  14008KT  26.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022    7:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
200118/1200Z 120  15009KT  26.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
200118/1500Z 123  16013KT  27.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.152    7:1|  0.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.24    0| 96|  4
200118/1800Z 126  18012KT  30.3F  SNPL    2:1| 0.4|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.204    3:1|  1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.44   34| 66|  0
200118/2100Z 129  19012KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    3:1|  1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.57    0|  0|100

BWI

200118/1500Z 123  15009KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198    9:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
200118/1800Z 126  18009KT  31.0F  SNPL    7:1| 2.6|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.374    8:1|  4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.57   85| 15|  0
200118/2100Z 129  18011KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327    8:1|  4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.90    0|  0|100

MRB

200118/0900Z 117  15009KT  28.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   14:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
200118/1000Z 118  15011KT  24.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047   14:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
200118/1100Z 119  14011KT  24.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072   12:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0
200118/1200Z 120  14012KT  24.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068   10:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
200118/1500Z 123  16015KT  26.0F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.171   10:1|  2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.37    3| 97|  0
200118/1800Z 126  17012KT  27.9F  SNPL    6:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.233    8:1|  3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.60   53| 47|  0
200118/2100Z 129  19010KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    8:1|  3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.62    0|  0|100
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@Bob Chill we can see both options for the potential stj system next week on the gefs. 

The GFS op dives the majority of the canadien ridge into the northeast. The ridge rebuilding west of Hudson Bay isn’t strong enough yet so the trough amplifies in the weakness to our west. 

930A4D45-E21A-46A9-BB9A-A300B42E62FD.thumb.jpeg.e58c375824065b9d09a6aa8f33d86369.jpeg

But on the GEFS both options show.

697C797C-5E2F-4E17-BD1C-2E733A43D962.thumb.jpeg.c56198395124c421097df94095ae45c4.jpeg

There is clearly two ridges there. If the one west of Hudson is stronger than whatever dives across to our north we likely get the coastal solution.  If the ridge in the northeast is more dominant the system likely amplifies to our west. Gefs leans coastal. Eps was split. Too soon. Won’t be out last shot in this pattern it looks like. 

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