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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This is slowly morphing into a bread and butter west track with 2-6" of snow before ice/dryslot. It's looked like that general setup since d10. Nice to see us better off today than the past couple. 

I think we can still improve, although I’d take this and run with it.  

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Just now, LP08 said:

I'm not showme, but the primary holds on until well north of us before beginning to transfer south of Boston.  But again as everyone else said, much better run.

I'm reaching, but hoping for enough improvements over the next few days.  The panels after 132 say probably not, but definitely better, as you and others said.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly...

SZ8CFl0.png

Think you are right. Probably bombing flakes at this point. If you note the good lift through and just above the warm nose I would think those warmer temps would be getting mixed out upwards somewhat.

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Weaker low into the GL @showmethesnow

Jump to the coast???

eta:  :weenie:

Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea.

We dont really even want it to transfer out here. We would just dry slot sooner. Obviously it could be better for you guys to the east. Especially the Eastern Shore. But for those of us to NW we want exactly what we see now.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly...

SZ8CFl0.png

That is a snow sounding with any decent rates.  Although the best lift is below the DGZ and in the warm layer...so it likely would be an icy rimed messy low ratio 5-1 type snow....but still.  

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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Fringed - Jumped over - missed in Purcellville/Loudoun @Ji - #WhatTheHeck 

GFS has a dryslot, probably due to down-sloping, across VA but I would have to look at the exact wind flow to see.  But that kind of dryslot, while possible, is dependent on the exact wind trajectory to be correct.   The lighter precip rates also negatively impact the thermal profile as less mixing out of the warm layer.  The result is ugly there...but that is not the kind of meso scale feature the GFS is going to get right at this range so don't worry, the larger more important factors all broke our way this run.  

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It would be nice to put down a snowpack at the start of the pattern change because whatever happens it is likely to stay cold a while after with a 1040 high dropping into the midwest behind the system and the epo ridge going ape in the longer range.  We could have a rare situation with extended snowcover "IF" this threat works out.  Especially if we can get some appreciable ice on top of a few inches of snow.  

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7 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said:

Oh boy...taking the family to Disney for the first time this Sunday (out of BWI).  I will never root against snow, but hoping for an earlier onset Saturday morning and clearing out by the evening.

If your flight isnt until Sunday, I doubt this effects it

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op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

op GFS gonna be too warm it looks like for the day 10/11 gulf low threat.  Breaks part of the block over Canada off and dives it into the northeast which allows a bit too much ridging in front and causes the trough to dig in slightly too far to our west.  But its damn close to a big storm for that range.   Just need a slight adjustment.  

That "weird brief warmup" that the gfs op keeps showing is actually supported by the ens now. EPS really picked up on it on the 0z run. Makes sense as the pattern change is a step down process and not like Feb 2015 where winter blew in violently with a single front. Our change to better conditions this time looks more like a multi step process. 

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All ops are converging on a colder start to the storm next weekend. The 0z EPS ticked up quite a bit with # of solutions that have snowfall in SW VA. Now the ops are agreeing with that. We're getting close to locking in some sort of winter wx event now. By this time tomorrow if everything holds or improves it's probably game on here. Warm fronts can be modeled decent 3-4 days in advance so these op runs are at least believable. 

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