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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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We continue to see run over run improvements within the Euro for next weekend. Still 5 days out so things can very well degrade but as of now we are still probably good for a general 2-4, 3-6 through the cities and north from WAA snows. Couple of things I will point out as far as what the run over run improvements are and they generally involve with what we are seeing with the 50/50 and it's associated confluence in the NE and the higher heights/high pressure we are seeing in southern Canada. 

The 50/50 has been trending stronger and it's general timing with the incoming system and associated western trough has improved. One other thing of note is that we are seeing a string of NS energy trailing behind this 50/50 that has been digging deeper and deeper south in the NE in front of our incoming system. In a nut shell these changes are helping to keep confluence to our NE locked in longer as well as dragging it farther south. These are good things as it is helping to lock in the High pressure to our north longer which also is playing a part in keeping the CAD in place longer as well. What we have also been seeing is that we are continuing to see a strengthening of the higher heights over top in Canada run over run. So what all this adds up to is deeper and longer lasting CAD through the region as the WAA precip moves in. Another thing to point out is that we have been seeing an adjustment of our western low's track SE as well as a general weakening which is what we want to see. This combo helps to take the threat of having the best WAA moisture running to our west and north somewhat off the table as well keeps the SW flow weaker where it will have a much harder time of scouring out the CAD.

 

eps500.gif.468af04b13930ea7c3874384fbd882da.gif

 

Now there is one thing I want to point out as a possibility although I don't particularly think it will happen at this time. What we have been seeing with the higher heights over top in Canada has been a move run over run towards them hooking up and over the western trough dropping in. So what we have generally seen over the last several days it that we are seeing a deeper dig with the trough as well as a quicker turning of it's axis (not so much on the latest run compared to the 12z). Now at this time we are seeing the through close off to our N/NE well after it could have any impact for us. BUT... we continue to see those stronger heights in Canada continue building up and over that dropping western trough there would be a very real chance of seeing the 500's closing off much sooner to our west. Not only that, but there would be the possibility of the 500's actually getting cut off from the NS flow in response to the higher heights through southern Canada. Now if we were to see one or both of these things occur it would change the dynamics for after any WAA aloft snows fell. Now what this would possibly mean for our region it is hard to even speculate until we actually saw it but I could see it potentially put coastal development into play for our region. But again I am not necessarily expecting this I just thought it might be worth keeping an eye for.

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31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea....with such a steady drop in primary low strength last couple runs on the ensembles who's to say that doesn't continue . Maybe this primary storm in the end will move more west to east vs NE which only would help with any transfer .

A w to e move will almost certainly help on the front end precip amounts.

Overall I think the last few runs are at the least encouraging. Several ensemble members are getting close to getting that low in a good spot.

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Despite some pretty good blocking across Canada the AO looks to remain positive, although much less so. And while everyone is focused on the epo which is the best way to get consistent cold despite a +AO, the look of ridging near Hudson Bay with an active STJ cutting under it on the EPS has my attention. That feature is one of the best ways to get a big snow during a +AO regime. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Despite some pretty good blocking across Canada the AO looks to remain positive, although much less so. And while everyone is focused on the epo which is the best way to get consistent cold despite a +AO, the look of ridging near Hudson Bay with an active STJ cutting under it on the EPS has my attention. That feature is one of the best ways to get a big snow during a +AO regime. 

 

Unlike last year it appears we have a Nino response. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just another op run at range but nice to continue to see looks like this one. Verbatim it gives us some snow from a clipper. Roll that forward and it might be snowing in the SE.

 

Active is the word it seems. The CFS has a nice snow event portrayed for the period near the 20th.  The more active, I would assume the better the odds of scoring. 

Snow on  snow would excite me. 

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i like the fact that for the most part, this weekend has been consistent and a long duration tracker since like 240 hrs out.  The GFS has shown at least some kind of initial wintry precip on every run. I know its still 120 hrs out or so but I would be a little disappointed if I didnt get 2"+ out of this before any slop/rain/dryslot

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28 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

06z EPS with another incremental nudge in the right direction...A tick slower so will have to keep an eye on that trend as well.

06/00z

nDFYSSL.png 

It's not so much the slower arrival time of the system that we need to worry about. It is the arrival time of the system compared to the high to the north. With the confluence lagging behind longer and deeper we are seeing the High pressure being locked in longer and being slowed down quite a bit on it's move eastward. So though we are seeing this system arriving later it is in fact coming in quicker in relation to the cold.

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No one touched on the Hi Res Euro from last night. But it is an all frozen event out here in the 81 corridor. Snow to ice to dry slot. That is encouraging to see and really matches climo for these type of storms.

Edit: And the 12z GFS matches it almost exactly. Decent thump for everyone on this run. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

12z GFS Slower but also further south with the track of the low.  High in a great place.  Better than 6z.

850's still south of Fredericksburg at 18z Sat.  Can't see the other levels but its definitely frozen.

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We continue to see the run over run changes that we want. Snapshot at 105 hr on the changes from 12Z compared to the 06Z. Note we continue to see an increase of the pressures over top of our system. We are also seeing the confluence lag even farther behind in the NE. And we are also seeing a slightly deeper dig of the trough in the west.

 

gfschanges.gif.62100c8a113db825f3ce4a5074027bd0.gif

 

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