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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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Just now, jaydreb said:

GFS eroding the cold much faster on this run.  Not gonna make many friends.  

High is weaker and slightly further north. Agreed. That is always the worry as we get closer, that the cold is not as strong or far enough south. But we are getting too specific. This will evolve.. I suspect some wintry weather.. how much is yet to be determined

 

 

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The 500 changes across the whole of North America have been pretty numerous over the past few runs, especially up over Quebec. I suspect these smaller pieces are gonna have a big impact on the final outcome. We need something to force this low further south as well as hold that colder air over the ne. Think we also don’t want a sharp trough will that energy coming across the Midwest. The better solutions had a less pronounced 500 wave.

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I would think this may increase the potential for cold and storms from late Jan through March. 

This more typical Nino-ish pattern and descending QBO might be enough to have a rather stormy and cold March as well, but some feel we need to have some sort of SSW to accomplish winter to late March.   

 

 

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Gefs slightly worse for next weekend but not a significant change. 

After that is says suppression is the bigger issue for the day 10/11 threat.  Shifted the trough axis slightly too far southeast. But for day 10 it’s noise. Big signal for the threat as the blocking relaxes day 12-14. Goes bonkers with the HL ridge around day 10

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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away.

Well Bob said heh a couple times.  That’s code for flip to a wintry pattern.  

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