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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, kind of confused myself with some that are already dismissing this threat and looking beyond it. I like the look and it is one where we can typically score 2-4, 3-6 through the region before a flip to other frozen and/or rain. Not to mention I am leaning heavily on seeing the primary end up tracking farther S and E compared to what it is spitting out now. Could very well be a thump to drizzle as we see the low transfer over top to the coast.

I could easily see that as well. 850mb winds are pretty light prior to Sat morning on both models before ramping up in the afternoon. 925mb temps are very slow to erode however, showing the model is sort of seeing the wedge hanging around, but likely still too quick in the dispersion before the boundary layer finally warms. Just a 100 mile southeast jog on current progs and it's a formidable winter event for anyone west of the fall line. Curious to see ensembles on the Euro as well to see what kind of positive winter evolution(s) it's spitting out. 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...a 1045 high in January in that spot ....even if the confluence 50/50 is retreating some is usually plenty good enough for serious CAD

Exactly. That's wedge into north GA kind of cold. You keep that look heading into the week and you're bound to see some icier solutions show up in the mix. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We’ve got a great high position to the ne. I’m like you. It’s the low position that I’m watching. Want it at least in western ky southern Indiana. Need a good shot at heavy precip early.

Sort of a balancing act. The closer the low gets to the Aps on its track the better the moisture feed but also the stronger the SW flow we see in the lower atmosphere to erode out the CAD. But what is popping up on the Euro at this lead implies we could be looking at a beast of a CAD setup which will be very difficult to overcome. If we were to see a track farther to the east it could very well be a case where the mid levels where snow is made (above 850's) are torching and yet the lower levels are an icebox (below 850's). Basically a thump to heavy sleet. Also the closer approach is more conducive to see a transfer occur over top where the precip gets shut off before the lower levels warm too much to change things over to freezing rain/rain. 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My thoughts are this ends up as probably our second or maybe even best significant winter event this year. LOL, I know that doesn’t say much.

Reminds me of the chill storm of 2012.

If you keep it simple and just go off history and our climo, a west track mixed event is the most likely option imho. Luckily thess types of events are usually mostly locked in by d4-5 since it's not a complicated upper level dance or phase. Just root for as fast and juicy as possible 

Eta: by locked in I mean general track/progression. Devil is always in the details. Hope we get to the point where some snow is guaranteed and we're only discussing how much

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Sort of a balancing act. The closer the low gets to the Aps on its track the better the moisture feed but also the stronger the SW flow we see in the lower atmosphere to erode out the CAD. But what is popping up on the Euro at this lead implies we could be looking at a beast of a CAD setup which will be very difficult to overcome. If we were to see a track farther to the east it could very well be a case where the mid levels where snow is made (above 850's) are torching and yet the lower levels are an icebox (below 850's). Basically a thump to heavy sleet. Also the closer approach is more conducive to see a transfer occur over top where the precip gets shut off before the lower levels warm too much to change things over to freezing rain/rain. 

And that’s where expectations come in. Any visions of an all snow event probably need to be put away. That’s why I want that low close. Heavy precip early while frozen, transfer overhead and then caa behind it to freeze it all in place. Boom

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Guys, we really should be looking at the period of March 23-25th, 2021 for the real storm.

That one will have a hard time accumulating on roads in the district during the day!  We will need some heavy rates to overcome solar, which by then the sun will be like 3” from our face according to Avant Regent.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you keep it simple and just go off history and our climo, a west track mixed event is the most likely option imho. Luckily thess types of events are usually mostly locked in by d4-5 since it's not a complicated upper level dance or phase. Just root for as fast and juicy as possible 

There it is

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24 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What would we need for energy to transfer once the storm runs into central TN southern IN if we can keep it that far south and west 

Easiest thing to look for is to see a slower departure of the lead low to our NE moving up into the 50/50. Keep that low hanging back somewhat with the confluence associated with it and we have the mechanism to force a transfer. You could also look for much stronger high pressures overtop and to our NE in southern Canada to force a quicker transfer. Or a combination of both of the above. 

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There are 3 discreet windows showing on the gefs and eps. 

The epo block and ridge across Canada is forcing the system next weekend further south than you would typically expect where it starts out. 

361147F3-952C-47C3-8DB6-7A8325711645.thumb.png.893848bf4735e07b9881f8a62893fdae.png

After that a threat early the following week. Look at the ridge axis out west as the next system dives in. Good ridge bridge over the top. Classic look. 

0AFB5B6D-191E-405E-89ED-0EA771742DCB.thumb.png.fc9a83edb8fc14b644bfd33e8ba9b281.png

Last threat is around day 15. Southern branch feature that cuts under the western ridge and across as the blocking relaxes. Classic. 

98E52A68-C6D9-4816-A68D-6B565102D2CE.thumb.png.f9961899bbbd3cf2fd43f01847132dcb.png

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46 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Guys, we really should be looking at the period of March 23-25th, 2021 for the real storm.

If I posted something similar Id be read the riot act about posting banter in a non banter room.. life is good when you are an Admin!! 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eps is another weenie run.  Better for next weekend. Significantly.  Good looks after also. Supports the idea of HL blocking day 8-13 

If you loop H5 and MSLP panels with the hemispheric view... it looks like the EPS is setting up an Archambault event right at the end. -NAO flips + and mslp anomaly shows a potential coastal climbing the coast in the SE. Total fun fantasy talk but I'm not lying.... 

Eta: picture worth a thousand words... haven't had a miller A in 4 years...

QyTdiOX.png

 

Eta #2: what PSU said already. Lol. We're telegraphing thoughts is seems.

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42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you loop H5 and MSLP panels with the hemispheric view... it looks like the EPS is setting up an Archambault event right at the end. -NAO flips + and mslp anomaly shows a potential coastal climbing the coast in the SE. Total fun fantasy talk but I'm not lying.... 

Eta: picture worth a thousand words... haven't had a miller A in 4 years...

 

Eta #2: what PSU said already. Lol. We're telegraphing thoughts is seems.

As you (or PSU or CAPE ?) posted earlier, our big events in blocking tend to happen as the NAO flips to + so this seems to fit that.  

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1 hour ago, PCT_ATC said:

If I posted something similar Id be read the riot act about posting banter in a non banter room.. life is good when you are an Admin!! 

It definitely is.  Your whining aside, I wouldn't have deleted that comment if you made it though.  I'm pretty lax with stuff until specific event threads.   Ask anyone here, I barely moderate this place because I'm not qualified.  I ask the moderators to moderate me! 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It definitely is.  Your whining aside, I wouldn't have deleted that comment if you made it though.  I'm pretty lax with stuff until specific event threads.   Ask anyone here, I barely moderate this place because I'm not qualified.  I ask the moderators to moderate me! 

lol. think you have mistaken me for JI.  I'm no whiner!

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I  love the look, and totally agree with the potential . 

From Eric Webb , courtesy 33, 

Here is Eric's post:

<

As you'd expect for a central Pacific MJO event coupled w/ a NINO leaning base state, the LR GEFS has a very active southern stream and is wet in the southern US and along the eastern seaboard.

 

892251556_download(34).png.25d8d3ce27ad2816440ddefe34d16bb8.png

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Sometimes, as Bob states,  the - NAO simply arrives unexpectedly.  Although, the Euro Control did have a solution a few days back showing a stout Davis Straits block, maybe even earlier than that.  Hopefully, it becomes a reality and raises the potential of a more significant storm, very cold and longer duration,  and even a HA event as previously mentioned. 

MJO phase 8 seems to support a -NAO,  but I believe we will not be into phase 8 until  early Feb, ( depending on the model you choose ) 

So, assuming this NAO block is brought about by Atlantic cyclonic wave breaking and deep ULL passages.  If so , does the block last longer than the transient blocks so far this season ?    I mention that possibility because the progressing MJO to phase 8 could end support  for a longer lasting NAO block.   

 

 

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