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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window.  I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set.  But its obvious now the anomalous  central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge.  It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time.   That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters.  We seem to have dodged that bullet.  

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15

7RLPIFT.jpg

 

Meh! :P

But seriously, nice signal there for sure.  Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that).  I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today.  And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us...

Yea man, it's no doubt an eyebrow raiser. NAO flips are always difficult to predict in advance on models. Maybe it sneaks up on us. This isn't the same type of pattern as 2015 if that's the case. Even if a real -NAO doesn't show up there isn't a massive rotating TPV  like there was in Feb 2015. This is like a muted 2015 but in a good way. We'll see how things shake out but at the very least we can safely say that our best chance of winter wx of the season is on tap d8-15. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us...

CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window.  I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set.  But its obvious now the anomalous  central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge.  It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time.   That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters.  We seem to have dodged that bullet.  

It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome.  

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far. 

Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC. 

I took some liberties but it's still a good split flow pattern... heh

UQznFNn.jpg

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14 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome.  

It was...of the handful of times that pattern flipped it was mostly from retrogression not progression. However, those composites were mostly years the pac locked in longer than a week so it could be more common when the pac ridge is transient. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Big hits start around day 9 . Looks awesome :weenie:

Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+  @  DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+  @  DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy

:o

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Without a doubt... best EPS run of the year. Considering the good stuff doesn't start for 8-9 days... I think I counted at least 15 members with 6"+  @  DCA. Some are single events and others are snow on snow. I'm tellin ya... we need to get extra sleep over the next week cuz it gon b bizzy

I want this face posted by you soon

images.jpeg.e144bdbe8abf106d039b69668cf55d57.jpeg

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