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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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0z CMC has the arctic air dumping further south and east into the center of the country by next weekend, with some moderate cold bleeding south and east of that. Develops an initial wave that moves along the front with a rain/snow mix for our area, then as the colder air gets further entrenched on the east coast on Sunday, it develops a low along the coast to our SE and snows on NC and SE VA.

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17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Euro and GFS are north for MLK weekend storm threat.  Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction.

Probably would worry more about what the ensembles saw and from what I see they were a win. Less emphasis with a cutter into the lakes and more emphasis with forcing low pressure to the East. Seeing better High Pressure over top the storm (more of a banana high). Also like the 50/50 low positioning better as well.

eta: My bad, actually was only referring to the EPS. 

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:
28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
Euro 0z and GFS 6z are north for MLK weekend storm threat.  Hopefully not a trend in the wrong direction.  Will check GEFS when it comes out.

Its right. Gfs caved and was always bs

How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time. 

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19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Probably would worry more about what the ensembles saw and from what I see they were a win. Less emphasis with a cutter into the lakes and more emphasis with forcing low pressure to the East. Seeing better High Pressure over top the storm (more of a banana high). Also like the 50/50 low positioning better as well.

EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There is your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early but EPS wasnt bad.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS delta changes showing major changes up top with ridging just N of the US/Can border nosing East. There us your support to try and keep the system from full cutting and farther S. And even if it does end up West of us would still be frozen thump. Too early still but EPS wasnt bad.

I liked what I was seeing on the EPS. Seeing the changes we need to see and a move in the right direction for more frozen. As far as the GEFS, it is still in flux with what it wants to do. So for now I am riding the EPS. :lol:

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Was a decent look but I am not sure how much I trust the GEFS at this time. It is all over the place with the timing the last few runs.

It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend.

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29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

How did it cave? It's but another op run, and the same idea is there. Still a snow-ice to rain deal. A bit less of a front end thump this time. 

That is all I meant.  Still looks like we flip to a colder stormier pattern Next weekend.    That does not guarantee snow storms but puts us back in the game.  There is strong consensus in the modeling that there are No threats before MLK weekend.  Enjoy the Outdoors this weekend.  Might turn back on the water and wash the car.  That will guarantee bad weather next weekend!

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is a bit yes. That being said, this is occurring at the time of an *apparent* significant change in the pattern, and it is still a week out. There are likely going to be some changes. Absolutely would not be surprised if things are being rushed a bit, and nothing of consequence(frozen) happens next weekend.

Don't look now but some of the things I am seeing have me wondering if the GEFS is considering trying to bring something up from the south as the cold front pushes through on Thursday.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't look now but some of the things I am seeing have me wondering if the GEFS is considering trying to bring something up from the south as the cold front pushes through on Thursday.

You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it.

1579186800-nynYMVseJI4.png

Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You mean this? Lol I was just looking at it.

 

Interesting, but not sure we would have enough cold air in place at that time.

Speak for yourself. As PSU would say, Move north young man, move north. :)

Think this may be why we are seeing the GEFS having issues with the weekend. It isn't sure what it wants to do Thursday as of yet.

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