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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. Lol
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I'm sure well get the worst possible solution from this chart
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Just now, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looking better and better up top. TPV displaced southward and ridging building over GL. Got the EPO ridge going a bit bonkers too.
 

So now the gefs looks better than the eps haha..its like a tennis match

Yeah and if that HL look is legit, there will be a series of cold fronts moving through and the tendency for eastern ridging will be replaced by a mean trough.

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12 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You can't forecast an ice storm until about 12 to 18 hours out.  

nahhhh... ice storms are easy peasy... just look at the GFS.. it shows it in pink and it goes out like 400 hours.

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34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look but the Eps has slowed the first initial cold push for late next week and Gefs sped things up . Gefs has a decent cold shot coming in Thursday morning.  Eps a couple days later and not as deep as its 12z run yesterday.  I'm talking just the day 8-9 timeframe.  A look at h5 and Gefs and Eps reversed roles ...mainly with how they handle the vortex in sw Canada/ NW US . Eps was elongating it sooner and breaking a piece off that moves to the 50/50 local . Gefs now does this to a degree  and Eps keeps it consolidated longer this run but eventually elongates it but 850 temperatures aren't as impressive into the east US   Just 1 run and I'm just talking through day 9 ish . 

Of note ...Eps does look much much  better then the Gefs down the line day 11 + . Night and day difference actually . Maybe Showme or someone else has time to  post some maps .:D

I've read a number of times over the years about the vortex breaking a piece off. Is that a normal process with the vortex and can that be forecasted?

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29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look but the Eps has slowed the first initial cold push for late next week and Gefs sped things up . Gefs has a decent cold shot coming in Thursday morning.  Eps a couple days later and not as deep as its 12z run yesterday.  I'm talking just the day 8-9 timeframe.  A look at h5 and Gefs and Eps reversed roles ...mainly with how they handle the vortex in sw Canada/ NW US . Eps was elongating it sooner and breaking a piece off that moves to the 50/50 local . Gefs now does this to a degree  and Eps keeps it consolidated longer this run but eventually elongates it but 850 temperatures aren't as impressive into the east US   Just 1 run and I'm just talking through day 9 ish . 

Of note ...Eps does look much much  better then the Gefs down the line day 11 + . Night and day difference actually . Maybe Showme or someone else has time to  post some maps .:D

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z  h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of  the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z  h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of  the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

I'll take a neutral AO over one with +2SD.  If I remember that scatter plot Wes posted I don't recall many if any good snows with AO above 2.  Could be wrong.  

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10. Last 2 runs of the GEFS don't look quite as good in the HL region as the 18z  h5 map I posted last night, but still acceptable. If you look at the teleconnections, interestingly the most recent runs of  the EPS and GEFS both have the AO trending very close to neutral by day 15. Not sure if that works out, but if the AO is going to have a tendency to be in the positive phase, we need the EPO ridge to be as advertised on recent runs(strength and position) and become a sustained feature going forward.

Saw that. The GEFS took 2 steps back irt the Atl from 18z. Now shows a ridge at the 50/50 and a trof over the NAO region. Has the EPO ridge and the neutral AO you mentioned. Doesnt mean it's not a workable look just pointing out the Atl changes at HL.

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Just now, H2O said:

I'll take a neutral AO over one with +2SD.  If I remember that scatter plot Wes posted I don't recall many if any good snows with AO above 2.  Could be wrong.  

A raging +AO is almost certain death to snow chances around here. If we end up with sustained +heights in the EPO/WPO space, it would be difficult for the AO to be severely positive though. A neutral to somewhat +AO is probably what we are looking at going forward.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think both the EPS and GEFS look generally okay beyond day 10.

It appears now that the TPV takes up home on our side, maybe in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. So, a readily available cold air source. 

Maybe this potential set-up creates a more conducive environment regarding the NAM state , as mentioned previously, anything closer to neutral would be a lot better than right now. 

I will ride any improvements in AO and the PNA states, would love to get some favorable indices later in the month.  If we do, that in itself will lend a lot more confidence that we can track a legitimate threat for the coastal areas, my area and your area included. psu already got his 5 inches :P 

 

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31 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I've read a number of times over the years about the vortex breaking a piece off. Is that a normal process with the vortex and can that be forecasted?

I will answer this wrt occurrences in the troposphere, because thats what we are concerned with as it directly impacts sensible weather. It's pretty common during winter for vortices to shed off and rotate southward in the troposphere, especially when a ridge builds up into the HL region. You can see this on the 6z GFS panel that Ralph posted with that big anticyclone building in the EPO region. Better yet go and  advance through the run at h5 and you can see the process occurring. Models do ok with predicting them, but getting the timing and depth correct is difficult at range.

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Still must be dreaming on my way to work...WB GFS Clown Map Day 13....everyone can be happy for 6 hours.

Of note, the GFS has the Jan 22 threat, and while taking a quick look this morning the Euro Control has a snow event for the Eastern areas for Jan 20th . There is potential between Jan 20 th and the 24 th. and probably beyond as well. At least the option to track versus getting a tan.  Also, some indications we may be trending to a + PNA look way out in fantasy land. 

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23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

EPS at range looks great for pressing cold and not overwhelming cold.  I could care less if the bay freezes over.  Nice to see HP in western Can that seems to just linger while nosing SE. GEFS has pretty much the same look.

 

Good post, and you might enjoy this read I brought from Tip over in the NE forum regarding the coming - EPO .... see bold section 

From Tip :

<

Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members.   

As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. 

Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold.  

I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc.  The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct.  We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes.  But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone.   

In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks!  There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here.

>

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I said it wound keep correcting but got called out for saying so. 

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct.  Nice call for this one...if it verifies.  

Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play.  Ask DT.

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34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You got called out for being arrogant not for being correct.  Nice call for this one...if it verifies.  

Noone likes a no it all, and in this game....coming off like one is really a dangerous way to play.  Ask DT.

Other more established(knowledgeable) posters have said the same thing. @WxUSAF comes to mind.

Mersky seems to have a need to brag about "predicting" something he likely read multiple times elsewhere.

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I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there. 

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The Australian long range MJO forecast was all in during the fall with us going through 7-8-1 in the heart of our best climo. The majority of the spaghetti plots still go through 8 but at a low amplitude. They dont make it to 1 though.

I didnt keep records back in 93' 94'. I was in Loudoun then and I do remember it being very icy. I found a pretty good site with write ups on some of the worst storms of that season:

https://tornadogenius.fandom.com/wiki/1993-94_United_States_winter_storm_season

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think the MJO wave makes it to phase 8 eventually. Amplitude TBD. Not sure if it makes it beyond that, but dying in the COD after phase 7/8 wouldn’t be the worst thing. The very long range MJO progs have a new wave developing over Africa and the western IO in early February, which is also a cold phase 1/2 for us. But that’s way way out there. 

By that time...phase 3/4 become more friendly also...and that is important if a wave fires in the IO it gives us more time in cold phases.  A death near the dateline followed by a new wave initiation off Africa would give us a nice long extended run without MJO destructive interference.  

I have been skeptical of favorable MJO help.  I am still not dancing in the streets but less pessimistic than a week ago.  I know the bias in the guidance is to kill off waves early...but the last wave did die before cold phases, the waters near the MC are boiling, and the guidance was suggesting a stall/loop there which isn't unheard of (last year).  But recent developments would favor wave propagation...but I will feel better once those projections get within 10 days.  For now things look favorable for a colder period late January into February.  Snow...TBD

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But recent developments would favor wave propagation...but I will feel better once those projections get within 10 days.  For now things look favorable for a colder period late January into February.  Snow...TBD

Brilliant, because too many times in the past we have had the rug pulled form under us. 

Also, I am in it for a sustainable period of cold, along with snow as well please. 

Too many transient cold periods,  I hope we lock into a longer period of cold and storm potential. 

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