snowman19 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Its disgusting The new RGEM just went way north on the snow accumulations, even the 10:1 ratio map shows barely an inch even up in Rockland County. The RGEM is normally too cold. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=40 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new RGEM just went way north on the snow accumulations, even the 10:1 ratio map shows barely an inch even up in Rockland County. The RGEM is normally too cold. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=40 Ditto for the HRDPS, under an inch. The 12K and 3K NAM are barely 2 inches up here. HRDPS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 12K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new RGEM just went way north on the snow accumulations, even the 10:1 ratio map shows barely an inch even up in Rockland County. The RGEM is normally too cold. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=40 It also seems a bit warmer and more realistic in terms of where the ZR vs plain rain usually sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Potential for a pretty legimate icing event and we’re in between discussing why parts of the area dont get as much snow and why rockland county might get 1” of snow instead of the 2” it showed on a map we were told not to use anyway. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 37 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Its disgusting In this case it's mostly ice for the places under advisories so it may be better to get plain rain. Will have to get well inland to see a solid sleet/snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 It would be nice if we could run the FRAM model on this to see how much freezing rain accumulates vs just runs off. PDF] The Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) - NOAA VLab https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov › documents › FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf Wet-bulb helps account for evaporative cooling toward saturation. • The air-liquid interface along the edge of a raindrop is saturated. Microscale temperature ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Potential for a pretty legimate icing event and we’re in between discussing why parts of the area dont get as much snow and why rockland county might get 1” of snow instead of the 2” it showed on a map we were told not to use anyway. Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-) 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Potential for a pretty legimate icing event and we’re in between discussing why parts of the area dont get as much snow and why rockland county might get 1” of snow instead of the 2” it showed on a map we were told not to use anyway. Yeah I don't get the bickering about the snow. This looks to be a pretty bad ice storm for inland NNJ. Especially considering the morning rush tomorrow and possible power outages. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-) *lose Lol. What the hell are you talking about? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 this thread is a mess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be nice if we could run the FRAM model on this to see how much freezing rain accumulates vs just runs off. PDF] The Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) - NOAA VLab https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov › documents › FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf Wet-bulb helps account for evaporative cooling toward saturation. • The air-liquid interface along the edge of a raindrop is saturated. Microscale temperature ... It's mostly dependent on rates, mitigated by temperatures. Thus the greater the rate of precip, the more the run off, but the colder the temperatures, the less impact rates have. I can picture the curve in my head. Of course greater precip intensity also increases friction which results in temperature increases. So if the rain comes in heavy it will help to raise temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: *lose Lol. What the hell are you talking about? He thinks that because im pointing out that we should be discussing ice, that i am not only rooting for that outcome, but that ice accrection on the roads will somehow burst my pipes inside my house lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barman49 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-)Who is rooting for an ice storm? The only person that roots is you, for no snow or winter weather. The fact you're bickering about a snow map that shows an inch or 2 is comical. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 No question radar is slightly ahead of models now a tad. Does not mean that'll hold up downstream though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: No question radar is slightly ahead of models now a tad. Does not mean that'll hold up downstream though. Not much of a surprise. I'd always bet on early arrival in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Barman49 said: Who is rooting for an ice storm? The only person that roots is you, against any snow or winter weather. The fact you're bickering about a snow map that shows an inch or 2 is comical. Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk Fyp. I didn't need another reason to hate snow maps. Anyway, back to the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Wow look at those super cells in Kentucky. This things juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Wow look at those super cells in Kentucky. This things juiced Tornadoes down there also. Wish this storm was 100 miles south to get a nice 3-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be nice if we could run the FRAM model on this to see how much freezing rain accumulates vs just runs off. PDF] The Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) - NOAA VLab https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov › documents › FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf Wet-bulb helps account for evaporative cooling toward saturation. • The air-liquid interface along the edge of a raindrop is saturated. Microscale temperature ... yeah, I doubt anyone see an inch of ice for this very reason-alot will run off-the biggest accretions are longer duration, lighter precip rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's mostly dependent on rates, mitigated by temperatures. Thus the greater the rate of precip, the more the run off, but the colder the temperatures, the less impact rates have. I can picture the curve in my head. Of course greater precip intensity also increases friction which results in temperature increases. So if the rain comes in heavy it will help to raise temps. That’s why ice storm warnings are often issued once the event is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Wow look at those super cells in Kentucky. This things juiced Closest supercell i see is in NW Alabama but there's some strong storms in eastern Kentucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-) This reminds me of the time LC (a short fused met) wished an inch of ice on some loudmouth and then it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Closest supercell i see is in NW Alabama but there's some strong storms in eastern Kentucky. Actually that's starting to bow out. Make that southern Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 28/27 currently. bad bad ice storm setting up the town is fully prepared luckily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 34 minutes ago, BxEngine said: He thinks that because im pointing out that we should be discussing ice, that i am not only rooting for that outcome, but that ice accrection on the roads will somehow burst my pipes inside my house lol. Man I never thought of that. Gonna be off for awhile while I wrap my indoor pipes just in case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Man I never thought of that. Gonna be off for awhile while I wrap my indoor pipes just in case. I think he meant that the ice would cause the power lines to fall, this causing his pipes to feeeze without heat. Either way a bit dramatic per the usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bklnwx1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Sleet/rain mix in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just saw that they have issued Winter Storm Warning for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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