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Snow, sleet, ice, and rain Dec 16-17, 2019


Ralph Wiggum
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Becoming increasingly concerned regarding Monday and into the early part of Tuesday. While the global guidance may have a meh look or one that portrays us dodging a  bullet, the mesos which are now beginning to get into range are seeing things differently.

Snow will over spread the region early Monday. Most guidance is trending notably colder and some mesos are developing a weak slp off the coast. This is allowing the flow to maintain more of a Northerly component. This keeps surface temps below freezing for a good part of Eastern PA thru Tuesday morning. Sleet and freezing rain could be an issue during the day on Monday all the way thru early Tueaday for parts of SE PA particularly the low lying and favored NE suburbs. 

Definitely need to be watching this as guidance is starting to honk on the potential for a fair amount of frozen. 

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12k nam is colder to start then is warmer at the surface after 54 hrs. I urge caution with that. Keep an eye on the weakness that it is depicting after 50 hrs east of the VA Capes. There is a slight N of E component to the wind vectors. That feature has also nudged south. If in fact that is real and continues to be shown it could help lock in the 2m cold more than what is being modeled. Going to be a diff of 1 degree either side for alot of folks imo.

 

namconus_mslp_wind_neus_44.png

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Yeah i think the last few under performers got them cautious. This looks ok for N&W of I95 and is trending south to some degree. Also a positive note the ECM cuts off the precipitation soon after the change to rain for the snow/mix crowd so may not be one of those situations where you get the winter stuff and it is washed away. 

Glass half full :lmao:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

I'm just never a fan of the snow, to sleet, to rain scenarios. They never play out well around here. The changeover is always sooner than modeled.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

Out here in western Berks we seem to hold on to the frozen longer then forecast. A few occasions last year we never changed to rain. I think we are in a good spot this time 

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

Out here in western Berks we seem to hold on to the frozen longer then forecast. A few occasions last year we never changed to rain. I think we are in a good spot this time 

Yep same here in NW Chesco....it's easy to change from Snow to non-snow of course....but going from ZR to plain rain is the problem....no doubt we will change to snow faster than progged but struggle to get above freezing especially the higher spots like around here....

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I’m going to be glued to this thread over the next 20 hours. Husband has a company Christmas party in Lawrenceville, NJ... and we have tickets to see a Miyazaki film tomorrow night at Oxford Valley. I’m originally from TN where there aren’t many snow plows when weather gets bad so we learn to stay far away from each other in case we slip and slide.... but up here, most cars seem to ride each other’s bumpers when the road is covered with snow or ice so I prefer to give driving in it a miss if possible. I was happy to read that Wiggum thinks things might be looking positive for a real winter.

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7 minutes ago, Furrawn said:

I’m going to be glued to this thread over the next 20 hours. Husband has a company Christmas party in Lawrenceville, NJ... and we have tickets to see a Miyazaki film tomorrow night at Oxford Valley. I’m originally from TN where there aren’t many snow plows when weather gets bad so we learn to stay far away from each other in case we slip and slide.... but up here, most cars seem to ride each other’s bumpers when the road is covered with snow or ice so I prefer to give driving in it a miss if possible. I was happy to read that Wiggum thinks things might be looking positive for a real winter.

My first thought is it shouldn't be too bad due to temps near freezing, traffic during the day, and road salting etc. But it is the weather so stay tuned!

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2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

My first thought is it shouldn't be too bad due to temps near freezing, traffic during the day, and road salting etc. But it is the weather so stay tuned!

Thank you, KamuSnow! I’ll be checking this thread multiple times an hour... partly due to making decisions tomorrow, but also because I love when there’s possible winter weather afoot and all of you start posting a lot- it’s wonderful! 

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

My first thought is it shouldn't be too bad due to temps near freezing, traffic during the day, and road salting etc. But it is the weather so stay tuned!

This is happening mostly overnight Monday fyi so Tuesday early will be a mess in many areas in the Interior and favored areas that hang on to the cold longer.

:yikes:

 

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_33.png

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png

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This event has been a mighty consistent storm track for the last week with a slight jog to the south over the last 2 days - JB and most guidance has always had the low to the south of the M/D line since last Monday ....what I suspect will happen is some initial snow with the overrunning warm front and then a pretty quick change to non-snow....but of course the further N and W you go from the I95 corridor the tougher it will be to scour out the LL cold - so some moderate icing (ZR over IP) likely from the PA Turnpike north and west. The bigger issue in my mind is how much precipitation is involved. Think we see a dry slot tomorrow afternoon and then many spots will rise to above freezing from the PA Turnpike south and east. Also, still keeping an eye on next weekend....could be a significant event from this vantage point.

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WXSIM for NW Chesco sees this as a pretty minor "winter" event with some light snow developing by 7am and continuing off and on through much of the day with around 1.0" of snow before mixing with IP by 4pm - then a pretty quick transition to plain rain heavy at times by 9pm in the evening

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