40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/first-call-tuesday-mess.html First Call: Tuesday Mess During mid week, it became evident that a mixed bag of precipitation would be likely across the area in association with the system poised to impact the region next Tuesday12/17. Eastern Mass Weather posited that it would be difficult for the majority of the area to remain as snowfall since the surface high pressure was escaping seaward, and the upper level energy was tracking to the north. While this still appears to be the case Some subtle, but important morphologies have taken place over the past 84 hours. Note that the receding high pressure area in the atlantic is now arching more back towards Maine. The impact of this on sensible weather will be that low level cold will now be more difficult to scour out even closer to the shore, thus increasing the risk of more frozen precipitation. The difference in guidance from this past Wednesday is quite evident, as that appendage of cold +pressure pattern was not apparent. The reason that we have seen this trend is very apparent, and one need not take more than a cursory glance at the modeled hemispheric 500mb pattern to understand why this has taken place. Impact of Negative NAO The aforementioned alterations to the pressure pattern along the northeast coast can be traced back to what will verify as a decidedly more negative NAO than was modeled over the course of this past week. Here is the forecast NAO index from Wednesday: While it was technically forecast to be negative, it was only marginally so. However here is the forecast from Friday: The NAO is going to verify significantly more negative than anticipated mid week. While the upper level energy is still going to be track to the north, the more deliberate departure of the cold high pressure area in the vicinity of Maine due to the more blocked downstream heights will force the surface reflection to the south of southern New England, effectively shearing and weakening the system. The fractured, weaker disturbance in conjunction with the surface system being displaced to the south will allow for a colder solution than otherwise may have transpired, but the mid levels of the atmosphere will still warm considerably across at least the southern half of southern New England. Warmth overrunning cold air entrenched at the surface is a recipe for ice. Storm Evolution and precipitation Types Snowfall should begin to overspread the area from southeast to northeast on Monday evening. Precipitation falls as snow when the entire atmosphere is subfreezing. Snowfall should reach the Mass pike region after midnight, as mixed precipitation already begins working onto the south coast. Local climatology dictates that the progression of the sleet should slow considerably as it encounters more resistance in northern Connecticut and Rhode Island from the retreating high pressure area. It may creep to the vicinity of the Mass pike by the Tuesday morning commute. Dangerous icing should be ensuing across much of interior Connecticut and Rhode Island at this point, where the cold layer will be very thin near the surface. North of this region, where the colder layer is thicker, the snowflakes will still pass through a warm layer in the mid levels of the atmosphere, thus melting into rain drops. However the rain will have had more time to refreeze into pellets of ice referred to as sleet, by the time that they reach the surface. The heaviest period of precipitation should arrive mid to late morning on Tuesday, as the mid level warm air advection reaches its zenith, potentially promoting a period of sleet to the north of the Mass pike, with freezing rain potentially nearing the pike. Precipitation type will be crucial during this particular time, since it will be steadiest. The precipitation should taper off throughout the afternoon, as the cold air collapses back to the south and east. First Call: Relatively signifiant amounts of freezing rain accretion are possible throughout interior Connecticut, and Rhode Island, with less across interior southeastern Mass and south of the Mass pike. Stay tuned for Final Call on Monday- 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 00z Euro has 4-6” Pike south and 1-3” North. Better thump and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 00z Euro has 4-6” Pike south and 1-3” North. Better thump and colder No it doesn't. Wxbell counts sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 00z Euro has 4-6” Pike south and 1-3” North. Better thump and colder There is definitely some thump potential. Definite mid level warmth worries down in SNE, as the thump may already be too warm. Overall if we don't cool the column a bit even CNE and NNE run the risk of a very elevated DGZ and saturation issues. F-gen looks nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No it doesn't. Wxbell counts sleet It’s clealy colder sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Didn’t mean to make you angry. Had seen this . Maybe it just didn’t run out thru end of storm . It was colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s clealy colder sir Colder than 12z, yes. I said it doesn't give 4-6" s of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There is definitely some thump potential. Definite mid level warmth worries down in SNE, as the thump may already be too warm. Overall if we don't cool the column a bit even CNE and NNE run the risk of a very elevated DGZ and saturation issues. F-gen looks nice though. We’d love a sig icestorm . We’ll see if colder trends continue over the weekend. Off to run 5 miles in a deluge. Awesome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Colder than 12z, yes. I said it doesn't give 4-6" s of pike. No you’re right some people get 6-8 there instead. The point here to take is, the run is colder and so is the 06 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: No you’re right some people get 6-8 there instead. The point here to take is, the run is colder and so is the 06 nam Yeah this suite got colder, but the shortwave isn't onshore until tonight and I'm not going to bank on this being a long term trend until we sample that with some balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Euro is deff the coldest and most icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Ray I give you props on all that for a few inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 6z Euro with 2 surges. Snow map looks pretty good with probably another .2 sleet freezing rain and rain SE. Nice fronto thump NE Mass. 2 to 4 lollipop to 6 everyone knows the rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Scooter shaft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Shortwave is still looking rather sheared on guidance. Take the most conservative amounts until it shows up a bit better (if it does at all). No doubt the sfc looks really cold though so this likely won't be liquid at all NW of BOS-PVD-HVN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray I give you props on all that for a few inches. I give him props for being up at 4am and Kevin too. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I give him props for being up at 4am and Kevin too. It’s amazing what you can get done early morning while the rest of the world sleeps. Early to bed , early to rise 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Scooter shaft? I think I’ll make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s amazing what you can get done early morning while the rest of the world sleeps. Early to bed , early to rise What did you get done? I mean it was pouring rain, outside cancel, everyone in your house is sleeping, vacuuming cancel. Lol tell us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What did you get done? I mean it was pouring rain, outside cancel, everyone in your house is sleeping, vacuuming cancel. Lol tell us He got nothing done except getting soaked. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Would be nice if that second s/w (more or less polar vortex) could catch up and slow down the departure of the low. Some subtle signs it was doing that, but won’t be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What did you get done? I mean it was pouring rain, outside cancel, everyone in your house is sleeping, vacuuming cancel. Lol tell us I got my 5 mile run in like always at that hour. Exercise portion done for day, load of laundry done and folded, showered and breakfast and now out for errands. The day is already 1/4 over 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 I don’t see anything that screams damaging ice amounts. Slick roads and walkways sure. Nice moderate event for some. Nice write up Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I got my 5 mile run in like always at that hour. Exercise portion done for day, load of laundry done and folded, showered and breakfast and now out for errands. The day is already 1/4 over What time is the Shepherd’s pie early bird special at Bickford’s? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He got nothing done except getting soaked. No thanks. Your attitude is exactly why our nation is facing an obesity crisis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don’t see anything that screams damaging ice amounts. Slick roads and walkways sure. Nice moderate event for some. Nice write up Ray. Agreed. Only a couple alarmists were hyping that. The freezing/frozen stuff will likely be good for a nearly region-wide advisory event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What time is the Shepherd’s pie early bird special at Bickford’s? He gets the early bird buffet at country kitchenat that exit 71 truck stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Your attitude is exactly why our nation is facing an obesity crisis Or you can run at a gym and not get soaked? That’s what I’ll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What time is the Shepherd’s pie early bird special at Bickford’s? Discounted afternoon lap-dances at the Blue. I'm up at 4:30 myself. I'm not doing chores then, but am able to clear my mind as I drink coffee, check email, what's happening here, etc. before the demands of the day take root. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Discounted afternoon lap-dances at the Blue. I'm up at 4:30 myself. I'm not doing chores then, but am able to clear my mind as I drink coffee, check email, what's happening here, etc. before the demands of the day take root. Except on days off same here. It’s certainly not my choosing though. Kids still get me up at 5:30-6. Anyways, we’ll see if we can tickle up this thing Tuesday. Part of me wonders about that 6z euro. We’ve seen those WAA thumps before in SW CT and then sort of weakens as it moves northeast before another area north of the pike forms as the warm air aloft stops its push north. Some guidance has shown that scenario. Plenty of time to work out those details. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now