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12/17 Messy Mix


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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Time for now cast..it’s on the doorstep now. Sometimes it’s time to just see what plays out and put the models away.  The calls have been made, let’s see what transpires.    Enjoy whatever comes. 

Still a good 12hrs before we see a flake here, I'll know by you guys obs how this is going to play out but i have a good idea already.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m always pro ‘stick to your forecast’ but there are times where one should and needs to adjust. Not sure this is one of them though. 

That’s true, but I don’t think this is an adjustment time.  Stick to it now.  It’s a few hours at most away. Mesos are all over the place. Stick!

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe at the end when it is a light foggy mist to put a surreal enhancement on your snow/ice encased surroundings.

Oh yea it’ll be at the tail end but I still don’t think it happens when the sfc tucks in below LI and that early. Usually in swfe the primary goes into Buf and the sfc low tucks late over Jimmy’s head. I usually warm into the mid 30s then...but this looks different. 

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Surface temps for most of CT stay below freezing for much of CT on most models I've looked at tonight.  SOmnebody is getting a good slug of ice tomorrow.

Kevin is going to be secretly crestfallen when he gets a nice SN/PL event but other CT peeps are posting pictures of ice encased landscapes and skaters on side streets and town sidewalks across Central CT.

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10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

@OceanStWx can correct me but i think they did away with the Freezing Rain & Ice Storm Warning products and lumped themp into WWA and WSW products. But this is the criteria nontheless. I think we are a candidate for this in the four southern counties of CT. Highly doubt they will be up this evening though. 

Hazard Simplification wrapped up all advisory level hazards into "Winter Weather Advisory for..." style headlines. Ice Storm Warnings still exist. 

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We Lucy.  Perhaps all the convection played a role. 

ALY was hinting at that earlier in their AFD regarding the increase in QPF for their zones:

This is possibly related to the latent heat from the
Deep South storms building the downstream ridge and enhancing lift
from the equatorward entrance region of the strong jet
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