dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol Kuchie Koo gone wild in NNE between the first event and the arctic shortwave. Glad we stayed the course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Glad we stayed the course. We’ll probably get similar snow totals to places south but on half the QPF in that Euro run....mid level lift sort of rots over NNE. All the models have the DGZ up in the 700-550mb zone up here and that’s where the best mid-level lift is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: I don't want to talk about tornadoes in this thread. thx Then why lock the thread wiz started? It’s shaping up to be a significant event and not like anyone is posting in the SE forum about it. Not sure why that thread bothered you so much to lock it compared to some of the other garbage that gets posted...I for one was interested in posting in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I obviously don’t have any specific numbers but it seems to me that probably 75%(?) of these setups are generally congrats Rt 2 corridor from me to Ray and obviously wiggle room N and S of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, KoalaBeer said: Then why lock the thread wiz started? It’s shaping up to be a significant event and not like anyone is posting in the SE forum about it. Not sure why that thread bothered you so much to lock it compared to some of the other garbage that gets posted...I for one was interested in posting in there. Banter thread my friend. And we have a complete forum for that stuff. We don't need everything in the New England forum. The occasional non-NE wx disco is fine in there. We don't need a dedicated thread to convection in the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Thump is becoming more uniform south of the pike even close to the coast.... looks like 3-5” south and 5-8” north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I wonder if the euro bounce will partially correct back at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, snowdazed said: Local news in RI is saying 1-3" and icing down here in RI. Do the latest models support that? For S RI maybe....I don't think 1" is a good lower bound in N RI. Looks more like 2-4/3-5 for N RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Thump is becoming more uniform south of the pike even close to the coast.... looks like 3-5” south and 5-8” north That tight gradient N of pike is not real...it is an artifact of the clown map algorithm. You'll still see a general gradient from S to N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Banter thread my friend. And we have a complete forum for that stuff. We don't need everything in the New England forum. The occasional non-NE wx disco is fine in there. We don't need a dedicated thread to convection in the south though. Fair enough. Guess I’ll head over to banter cus SE forum is a ghost town. Back on topic I’m looking forward to the snow tomorrow. Hopefully it can stick around a little longer this time. Pretty rare for me to be at around 25 inches by Dec 17 if this pans out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I tried to tell some that euro would eventually $hitcan the high press memo. Congrats, me. We tried to tell them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That tight gradient N of pike is not real...it is an artifact of the clown map algorithm. You'll still see a general gradient from S to N. Yeah... I mostly mean I’d expect 2-3” on the south coast up to 7-8” northern ORH and Southern NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 lol Kuchie Koo gone wild in NNE between the first event and the arctic shortwave. Nice quasi snow hole over the the rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 BDL coarse sounding from 12z Euro; valid 12z Tuesday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That tight gradient N of pike is not real...it is an artifact of the clown map algorithm. You'll still see a general gradient from S to N. We tried to tell em. The press is real. #respect 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Does the icing get any further north into ORH County, South of the Pike or is it mostly snow/sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, FXWX said: BDL coarse sounding from 12z Euro; valid 12z Tuesday... howd you get your hands on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Modfan said: Does the icing get any further north into ORH County, South of the Pike or is it mostly snow/sleet? I highly doubt any ZR makes into ORH county....unless it's maybe a little freezing drizzle in the dryslot after most of the heavier precip is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Thumpity Thump on the 18Z RPM covers even S CT with 4-6" ill post a map for Jerry when its done 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, FXWX said: BDL coarse sounding from 12z Euro; valid 12z Tuesday... What do you have for low level temp readings there? Looks like 600, 700, 800, 850, and 950 at the least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 If I had to pick zone of .50-.75 ice it would be southern Naugatuck Valley. Bethany area loves to accrete big ice. Might happen again with this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Thumpity Thump on the 18Z RPM covers even S CT with 4-6" ill post a map for Jerry when its done Ya I think I the thump is real..gonna snow good for a lot of the area come early tomorrow morning. A solid 4 inches is a Good bet for most in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 In 3 runs the Euro went from partly sunny up here to about 0.25” QPF with this system. Not overly impressive showing by that model so far. The GFS seems to be the most consistent in the overall synoptic evolution, thermal profiles aside for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If I had to pick zone of .50-.75 ice it would be southern Naugatuck Valley. Bethany area loves to accrete big ice. Might happen again with this @BuildingScienceWx loves ice...damn ice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Curious to see what box does with totals and advisory/warning. Snow totals right on the threshold.... sleet and timing a factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: In 3 runs the Euro went from partly sunny up here to about 0.25” QPF with this system. Not overly impressive showing by that model so far. The GFS seems to be the most consistent in the overall synoptic evolution, thermal profiles aside for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Curious to see what box does with totals and advisory/warning. Snow totals right on the threshold.... sleet and timing a factor? They could probably get away with a warning north of the pike....they will prob have a decent number of 6"+ totals and I think the timing helps out any tiebreakers in case it slightly underperforms in the 4-5" range....gonna be worst right during early morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: In 3 runs the Euro went from partly sunny up here to about 0.25” QPF with this system. Not overly impressive showing by that model so far. The GFS seems to be the most consistent in the overall synoptic evolution, thermal profiles aside for SNE. I said this earlier, The GFS had led the way, Most discounted it, The Euro was a southern outlier for several runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: I said this earlier, The GFS had led the way, Most discounted it, The Euro was a southern outlier for several runs. a few lucid members mentioned this at other times over the last five days... more than a half the members, didn't seem to acknowledge typical with popularity schemes and crowd mechanics - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: a few lucid members mentioned this a other times over the last five days... more than a half the members, didn't seem to acknowledge typical with popularity schemes and crowd mechanics - And factoring BY biases............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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