CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Best for your dad jay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 40 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: there seems to be a weenie band both on the gfs and RGEM just north of the pike region, that might be the area that will see 6-8" I for one don't give a frig about ice. Give me snow. Best wishes, Jay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 It’s all about health, the rest is gravy. Well wishes there ema weenie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Check out the cmc Enjoy your rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Speedy recovery for your dad Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Enjoy your rains? 32 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 57 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: BOX might need to post Winter Storm Warnings for the 4PM for some counties. Not sure the extent of that verifying but err on the side of caution I've fared pretty well with their advisories. Superstitious me says 'don't rock the boat'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 All guidance lingers snows well into the night tomorrow. Add on another inch or two in places with a bit of an Inv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 This will be our 3rd solid event this month and we’re halfway through. Solid 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: BUFKIT is showing 12 full hours of ZR for HVN, ranging from .017 to .169/hr usually ranging around .060 per hour for a total of .805. Say we lose 30-40% of that due to run off. That's still .5" of total ice. Precip is on the light side so that will help with accretion. Temps rangning from 27-32F. I don't think a widespread .5-.75 is likely but i think its in the cards, like you said if everything goes right. .25-.50 is not an unreasonable forecast thought for interior S CT. Total snow before the flip is 3.7" on bufkit so well have a solid concrete pack for a while if that pans out. Yeah it's possible half an inch happens, I'm just pretty skeptical of it. Nothing wrong with using it as the upper bound though...upper bound should be where if most things go right. All these things to consider: - QPF could be overdone in general on some of these mesos - Lose some ZR QPF to sleet where algorithms are too quick to flip to ZR - Accretion efficiency? It can vary quite a bit depending on precip rate, temps, wind, etc...but median is about 0.70. As an aside, I actually always thought the ice storm warning criteria of half an inch of ice was kind of dumb and arbitrary anyway. Grid problems start ramping up quickly at around a third to 3/8 of an inch I've noticed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 51 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Make your ice storm preparations now, SCT. yikes....no generator here, at least we will stay warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: This will be our 3rd solid event this month and we’re halfway through. Solid Potentially I could be at or near 40" for autumn... Nuts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Going big with the ice i see. I am likely bumping up the .1-.3 range to .25-.50, our zones are the same though. My biggest problem though is forecasting the shore, you think they dont see any ice accumulation at all? I dont think itll be as big as inland areas but still have up to a tenth or so.. The immediate shoreline is tough...with it still being early in the season it doesn't take much of a easterly component to the wind to bump sfc temps just above freezing. I think they may see some...but probably generally under .10''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 It’s really cold at 900 MB. That to me tells me that there could be a lot of sleet a little further south than some of those freezing rain algorithms have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's possible half an inch happens, I'm just pretty skeptical of it. Nothing wrong with using it as the upper bound though...upper bound should be where if most things go right. All these things to consider: - QPF could be overdone in general on some of these mesos - Lose some ZR QPF to sleet where algorithms are too quick to flip to ZR - Accretion efficiency? It can vary quite a bit depending on precip rate, temps, wind, etc...but median is about 0.70. As an aside, I actually always thought the ice storm warning criteria of half an inch of ice was kind of dumb and arbitrary anyway. Grid problems start ramping up quickly at around a third to 3/8 of an inch I've noticed. I agree...also 1/2'' of ice isn't very easy to get. We def start getting problems with less...especially if there is accumulating snow involved just prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: yikes....no generator here, at least we will stay warm I think we more ip then zr but we’ll see. At least get the fireplace going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Potentially I could be at or near 40" for autumn... Nuts! If only the 2'+ the GFS had for this weekend were still in the cards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 This is the HREF forecasted accretion, not just qpf as freezing rain. Pretty scary down here, widespread .5" accretion is the mean. The max is 1.25" qpf as freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's possible half an inch happens, I'm just pretty skeptical of it. Nothing wrong with using it as the upper bound though...upper bound should be where if most things go right. All these things to consider: - QPF could be overdone in general on some of these mesos - Lose some ZR QPF to sleet where algorithms are too quick to flip to ZR - Accretion efficiency? It can vary quite a bit depending on precip rate, temps, wind, etc...but median is about 0.70. As an aside, I actually always thought the ice storm warning criteria of half an inch of ice was kind of dumb and arbitrary anyway. Grid problems start ramping up quickly at around a third to 3/8 of an inch I've noticed. and fourth when ZR is actually sleet along northern areas of ZR clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: and fourth when ZR is actually sleet along northern areas of ZR clown maps These things are even worse than the snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Arctic fronts and squalls zzzz We know who does well with these Mountains and NNE. Maybe a 10 minute snow shower for the Coastal plain folk who make up 85% of posters here. 02$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: If only the 2'+ the GFS had for this weekend were still in the cards If it was mid-winter I would be complaining there is no place to put the snow...but alas, the rains came... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 definitely gonna enjoy this on from KBED and NOT KASH...seems almost unanimous...more of an impact further south from Nashua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Arctic fronts and squalls zzzz We know who does well with these Mountains and NNE. Maybe a 10 minute snow shower for the Coastal plain folk who make up 85% of posters here. 02$ You and Dr Dews should shack up in the Mehiday Inn 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You and Dr Dews should shack up in the Mehiday Inn Its a fraud 5 member. I was on board the last one as something different than analfrontal ....your not getting me on the arctic front train , i suppose it wouldn't be wrong to call you the conductor in such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You and Dr Dews should shack up in the Mehiday Inn Wednesday looks fun. Wish we had some steeper lapse rates involved b/c I would throw the lightning flags around. Speaking of lightning...I hope they do some special balloon launches in the south today!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Arctic front with some pretty strong squalls that can lay down an inch or 2. Lapse rates are impressive. Fraud 5 and all. Those squalls are actually looking pretty impressive but usual hit or miss caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Its a fraud 5 member. I was on board the last one as something different than analfrontal ....your not getting me on the arctic front train These type of fronts almost always are associated with snow squalls. these are different than polar fronts which are more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: If it was mid-winter I would be complaining there is no place to put the snow...but alas, the rains came... Tell me about it. With each melt, I thought perhaps the city could come and get my leaves. Alas, we end up with 2-day windows of opportunity and then covered again. Keep 'em buried til spring I say. As an aside--I just posted a neat/scary/close-call video of yesterday's wind in the obs thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The immediate shoreline is tough...with it still being early in the season it doesn't take much of a easterly component to the wind to bump sfc temps just above freezing. I think they may see some...but probably generally under .10''. FOUS shows the surface winds starting at 60 degrees, and backing to 40 through the event. I don't think the Sound is a big deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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