12/17 Messy Mix

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

New HRRV4 online at Pivotal 6Z. Getting Thumpity.  Look out for Thumper the Dumper Kev, MPM ORH Hippy Hunchie Ray line 

Does that attempt to control for IP? 

[NorEastermass128]

MA Pike thumper. 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I admit not looking hard at srn CT, but not sure I see damaging ice? Maybe a narrow area in srn CT gets good ice, but sleet seemed like a bigger deal near 84?

Right at the shoreline it’ll likely be a 31-32 deg fz rain deal, which certainly doesn’t spell disaster. In the 12 years I e been here I’ve never seen much more than a glaze to maybe 0.1”. I could see it being a bigger deal back W, the I-91/15 corridor and up to about 84 as you say. The Q River valley does a remarkably good job funneling down cold air towards HVN/BDR if the wind direction is right.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

MA Pike thumper. 

A Pike-Poker.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

New HRRV4 online at Pivotal 6Z. Getting Thumpity.  Look out for Thumper the Dumper Kev, MPM ORH Hippy Hunchie Ray line 

 

Yea, i just took a look at that. One noticable difference compared to the rest of the model suite is that it brings snow in much earlier with the leading edge entering fairfield county around 9pm and keeps most of the state snow until around 9Z. I can only see H85/H7/SFC temps though. Then after 9Z the transition begins with a lot of sleet inland and freezing rain for the southern half of CT. The bulk of it ends tomorrow afternoon. Not sure how trust worthy the long range HRRRv4 is. How did it perform on the last two events? I haven't really been looking at it much.

[CoastalWx]

6z euro looks pretty nice nrn CT to pike area. 

[CoastalWx]

That's s/w looks to prolong some -SN in the area Tuesday night. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's s/w looks to prolong some -SN in the area Tuesday night. 

We long and prolong 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yea, i just took a look at that. One noticable difference compared to the rest of the model suite is that it brings snow in much earlier with the leading edge entering fairfield county around 9pm and keeps most of the state snow until around 9Z. I can only see H85/H7/SFC temps though. Then after 9Z the transition begins with a lot of sleet inland and freezing rain for the southern half of CT. The bulk of it ends tomorrow afternoon. Not sure how trust worthy the long range HRRRv4 is. How did it perform on the last two events? I haven't really been looking at it much.

 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro looks pretty nice nrn CT to pike area. 

Asked and answered.  

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

 

Right at the shoreline it’ll likely be a 31-32 deg fz rain deal, which certainly doesn’t spell disaster. In the 12 years I e been here I’ve never seen much more than a glaze to maybe 0.1”. I could see it being a bigger deal back W, the I-91/15 corridor and up to about 84 as you say. The Q River valley does a remarkably good job funneling down cold air towards HVN/BDR if the wind direction is right.

 

This.

Weenie maps are showing a great deal of zr accumulation right down to the shore. In the 0.4-0.6 range. I went lower at the immediate the shore and right now feel the significant icing threat is along the merritt pkwy to about and around 84. Especially central valley CT like you said is prime for freezing rain. My area to MMK could be in some trouble. This isn't a huge event i don't think, i.e. ice storm warning criteria >0.5, that's probably the cap. But i can certainly see some inland valley areas getting 0.25-0.50". The freezing rain soundings on the NAM bufkit are no joke, it's light enough to accure, cold enough and long enough to accumulate well.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro looks pretty nice nrn CT to pike area. 

Looks GREAT for Boston 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This.

Weenie maps are showing a great deal of zr accumulation right down to the shore. In the 0.4-0.6 range. I went lower at the immediate the shore and right now feel the significant icing threat is along the merritt pkwy to about and around 84. Especially central valley CT like you said is prime for freezing rain. My area to MMK could be in some trouble. This isn't a huge event i don't think, i.e. ice storm warning criteria >0.5, that's probably the cap. But i can certainly see some inland valley areas getting 0.25-0.50". The freezing rain soundings on the NAM bufkit are no joke, it's light enough to accure, cold enough and long enough to accumulate well.

Do you think this compares to last January, or maybe a little less?

[SJonesWX]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately, Massport FTL in recent events. We can only do so much. 

we tried to tell 'em?

[Ginx snewx]

Juicy lucy

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

New HRRV4 online at Pivotal 6Z. Getting Thumpity.  Look out for Thumper the Dumper Kev, MPM ORH Hippy Hunchie Ray line 

I'd check the Rapid Refresh website itself for the experimental. You can get variable density snow accumulation, which will be more realistic with sleet. Looks more like a stripe of 4-6" there.

[The 4 Seasons]

Here's the 6Z ECMWF weenie map for you winter weather weenies 

[OceanStWx]

New NAM would probably avert disaster a bit for HVN. "Wastes" some QPF at the beginning on snow and only has about 0.25" QPF left for FZRA. If you assume half runs off, that's a tenth of an inch of ice rather than a quarter like previous runs were showing.

[The 4 Seasons]

850s start to blow through CT around 12Z and make it all the way up to about just shy of the pass pike before retreating.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Northern bumpity 

[dendrite]

I’ll gladly take 0.20” of snow. Cover the grass and bamboo and clear it off the driveway with the leaf blower. win-win. 

[CoastalWx]

Might have cstl front action near BOS. Models hinting at that. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3-5” then we encase it with ice for Santa. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd check the Rapid Refresh website itself for the experimental. You can get variable density snow accumulation, which will be more realistic with sleet. Looks more like a stripe of 4-6" there.

I just remember so many of these type events where this so called variable density just piles up. Billions of flakes versus multi millions I guess would be the description.  As we often reference this type of snow its 12 13 07. I would not be surprised if warning level snows occur right at the line.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Yes--I left that out.  If that map verifies, I'll have had 27"  from 3 (or 4 depending on how you count Dec 1-3) events without a watch/warning.    

Poor baby.

[dendrite]

I’m pretty plastered right now from taking shots for every 12/13/07 reference I’ve seen. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, dendrite said:

I’m pretty plastered right now from taking shots for every 12/13/07 reference I’ve seen. 

I don't even remember that event. 

 

Let's talk about it.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I just remember so many of these type events where this so called variable density just piles up. Billions of flakes versus multi millions I guess would be the description.  As we often reference this type of snow its 12 13 07. I would not be surprised if warning level snows occur right at the line.

Maybe some lollis, but overall with the relatively warm sounding and dry air sneaking into the DGZ I'm not locking anything more than 10:1 for a ratio. Much of the event could be a rather dense ratio in fact.

[dendrite]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I don't even remember that event. 

 

Let's talk about it.

Bigtime SWFE traffic shitshow in Boston. Basically whenever SNE gets an overrunning event it becomes an analog. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Poor baby.

Time for the queen to split some wood?

[ORH_wxman]

Really nice looking 06z euro run for here. Front end stuff looking pretty nice.