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December 16/17 Baby Bump Thump Thread


DDweatherman
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7:30 pm -- down to 37° in Columbia, east side.  Nice temp drops, as others have reported.  Skies mostly clear.  The cold air arriving just in time,  just ahead of the moisture .... for a change.  I did notice on a live TV DC shot on (probably a cable news channel or maybe Redskins game), it looked like a few clouds were scattered around DC in late in the afternoon. 

For any one in DC: did those clouds clear up, or .....  ??

(trying to compute about how many more good hours in Columbia we may have for temps to keep falling before increasing clouds slow up the downward trend)

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If temps bust low in the wee hours the extent of sleet and zr will increase at lot. Many areas south of I70 including nova are progged for 33-35 temps in the AM. Get those down to freezing and winter wx can hold on longer.

hrrr_T2m_neus_12.png

I remember couple of marginal events where 850s held on longer and it snowed more than expected. I don’t really consider ZR for my yard at least.  Not in this setup.  

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image.thumb.png.c218f5b8ebdfdde6e47da9b84484d5f6.png

Notice where there's a sharp thermal gradient on the 850 map. Right along that boundary is where I think precip initially starts as snow then begins to mix as the 850s gradually move north into tomorrow. I think somebody in N - NE MD will see a few if not several hours of frozen before changeover.

At the surface you can see where the difference between dewpoints from the low 20s to the mid-upper 20s right along the Mason dixon line. As the precip moves in, the temperatures will cool down to the lower 30s for a few hours maybe even down to DC. Right now I'm seeing a coating from D.C to around 2 inches just north of the mason dixon line overnight. HRRR and the NAMs look mostly supportive of this idea.

I'd like to add that the current radar looks better than currently modeled. I think some sort of a surprise is coming. Areas that are already down to freezing will most likely see several hours of precip. @C.A.P.E. I think we might wake up to a decent surprise in the morning. Maybe a coating in these parts, more to the north.

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Saw this and wondered if this would affect the radar readings tonight 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=FTM

 

NOUS61 KLWX 160133
FTMLWX
Message Date:  Dec 16 2019 01:39:27

KLWX IS EXPERIENCING CALIBRATION ERRORS THAT ARE CAUSING IT TO READ AROUND 20 TO
 25 DBZ TOO LOW. TECHNICIANS ARE LOOKING INTO THE ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Got some virga on my doorstep out this way on Nexrad. Would love for this to start as early as possible. Get as much snow as possible before the flip.

Imo- you and winterwxluvr have a legit shot at 3". If I get an inch or more I'll be pretty happy. I'm down to 35 and consistent with hrrr temps. Hrrr doesn't get me down to freezing until 3am or so. If I get below freezing by say midnight then expectations change. 

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