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December 16/17 Baby Bump Thump Thread


DDweatherman
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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Double edged sword with the mountains... remove them and CAD events are gone forever. I don't want to live in that world. Lol

I'm not worried about qpf wobbles as much as not having a column that supports snow for more than 15 minutes. Nams are the same or slightly better at the surface and 850s compared to 12z. That's nice to see. 

Wouldn't we be better off strip-mining between Pittsburgh/Cumberland/Chambersburg and putting in another great lake? Keep the CAD when needed, plus we get legit lake-effect going on with those cold dry NW winds that we do so well around here.  

Agree that it's going to come down to the column and how long we can hang on.....do you think timing may help out as well? If we could get an early onset with a good juicy slug going before the sun hits that can't be a bad thing. 

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looks like the same in the NAM.

Yup although the NAM looks like it hangs on a few more hrs than the GFS. My understanding is that the known GFS cold bias mostly affects the med and long range, so maybe the NAM will be better at sniffing out the cold......hug the model that gives you what you want! :weenie:

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I noticed that too. The rain shield move south noticeably. Don’t know if that means we might hang on to cold longer or not.

All comes down to the initial slug. Snow producing column will be short lived so as juicy as possible upfront is our path to more than 1". If precip comes in weak it will be ugly. Need heavier rates/evap cooling or warm nose will rush in

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