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December 15-17 Snow Potential


Hoosier
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4 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

It could be because this is happening with 2 waves over a 24 hour period. If they are like ILN who's criteria(in part) is 8" in 24 hours, then it won't meet the criteria.

Yes, this. The event is happening over a 36 hour period. Also, when issuing a warning (ignoring impacts for a moment) the average has to be 6". So 4-6" is an average of 5" which would be advisory. (Of course impacts could change things).

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Thinking latest RAP/HRRR might be onto something with getting some accums farther north based off radar and observational trends over IA and western into west central IL. Amounts on north fringe might be a bit overdone but could see 1" up to a bit north of I-80 corridor.

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12 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Watching the radar trends closely. Noticing that the area of snow is farther north and larger in size than expected.

Noticed that also.  Its good timing for the I70 crew being at night.  Points S and SW were forecast with higher storm total amounts due to this first wave but from the looks of things back west as you said there could be a larger swath of initial amounts especially north.  If can stay out of any warm nose with the second one tomorrow could see some nice spread the wealth amounts through central IL, IN and even into Central and NE OH and even some points north.  Id say IF that happens the Canuk scored a coup as its been very consistent in such a scenario over the last 48 hours or so.

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On 12/14/2019 at 6:39 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Minus a couple runs, most non american models have performed very well with this one as a non event. Riding the op euro usually works out.

Euro was first to tease with Big Dog event at d6. Then it calmed down. It is an event fwiw, just not ours. This Nov-Dec will end up worse than last year. Next Dec's gonna rock! :lol:

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13 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Euro was first to tease with Big Dog event at d6. Then it calmed down. It is an event fwiw, just not ours. This Nov-Dec will end up worse than last year. Next Dec's gonna rock! :lol:

Already ahead of last year here, last year Detroit had 6.7" in November and 0.5" and December. This year DTW had 9.5" in November and 0.8" so far and December.  What an odd quirk, this is 4 times in the last 6 years snowy November's give way to low snow December's

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Thinking latest RAP/HRRR might be onto something with getting some accums farther north based off radar and observational trends over IA and western into west central IL. Amounts on north fringe might be a bit overdone but could see 1" up to a bit north of I-80 corridor.

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Looks that way.  Probably going to end up around an inch up to maybe 1.5" here.  

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36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Already ahead of last year here, last year Detroit had 6.7" in November and 0.5" and December. This year DTW had 9.5" in November and 0.8" so far and December.  What an odd quirk, this is 4 times in the last 6 years snowy November's give way to low snow December's

3 of them were Nino's. As history can tell you, Nino December's don't tend to do well after a snowy and cold November. Overall, most Nino winters are usually rockin' by Jan-Feb. 

 

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56 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

3 inches of snow at IND as  of 8:45 p.m.  Looking wintry out there.  And roads are a mess.

Just came back in from a ride.  3 here and still going.  Yep theyre a mess.  Ill never understand why they plow all the way to the freezing pavement, expose liquid water to sub freezing air, and take away 2 or 3 inches of snow you can use for traction (for that matter 4 or 5)  Geez leave me some snow to grab

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Up over 4 here.  Back to finer dendrites but still coming at a good clip.  Points north reporting 4.5 to 5 just noticed KIWX issued a WWA.  Now the 00Z models are hinting at another 4-6 possible tomorrow evening into Tues. along I70.  Throw another 4 on top of what I have and I'm happy till Friday lol. 

 

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