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December 15-17 Snow Potential


Hoosier
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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ouch

Looking like a DAB around here.  Too bad.  At least somebody will get a decent snow, namely around I-70.  

Yeah....current prediction is 4-7 inches along I-70 corridor by Tuesday morning.  Freezing rain risk currently thought of as being farther south to the Ohio Valley.  Hope forecast is right.

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I don't dare throw out a guess this far out around here (36 hrs lol) in mid Dec.  Still big chance its gonna be a slush fest.  Model soundings vary but there's warm tongues floating around from 500 down to 925 depending on the model.  Hate I70 App runners this early.  00Z OP runs made a pretty significant shift south except for the Canuk who thinks it's January although it's been very consistent in it's solutions run to run comparatively.  I will be pleasantly surprised or normally disappointed either way.  Such is winter life nowadays along the whiteknuckle I70 line.  Bring on the clippers :weenie:

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Also it's the annual battle of the AFD's.  KIND has me at 4-6 with FRZA mixing in, and curiously only a WWA for technically  warning criteria snow.  IWX,  2 miles to my north, has me at 2-4 with no mixing issues and curiously no WWA with technically advisory criteria amounts.  Baffled a bit, they both betting high?  Let the winter games begin lol.

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7 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Your welcome

Screenshot_20191214-223049_Samsung Internet.jpg

all good. That's the fun of this board to have a healthy debate regarding storms, patterns, and modeling. You and me should have a fun winter.  I love a good troll job as good as the next guy. Now go hit the OV peeps on WX disco over the 20 mile fluctuation that will occur with the main snow band. And again, I'll point out a 4-7 " snowfall in StlLouis and Indy is no way to run a mid December mild pattern. 

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A slight glimmer of hope from some nice DTX analysis this Sunday am.........I know, I know....I'm grabbing on straws. :weenie::weenie:

So far, the satellite representation (including a decent look from
GOES-15 in this fairly data void satellite area) of the lead
vorticity spokes pivoting around northern upper low suggest this
energy may be digging a bit sharper southwest into the Northwest
Territories. If the trend were to persist, a slightly deeper mean
upper trough would result and the odds that some light deformation
snow from the southern system would lift into southern parts of the
forecast area would increase. Given this, will not abandon the idea
of some light accumulating snow over far southern areas completely
despite a definite consolidation of most model solutions in that
direction.
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6 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Also it's the annual battle of the AFD's.  KIND has me at 4-6 with FRZA mixing in, and curiously only a WWA for technically  warning criteria snow.  IWX,  2 miles to my north, has me at 2-4 with no mixing issues and curiously no WWA with technically advisory criteria amounts.  Baffled a bit, they both betting high?  Let the winter games begin lol.

It could be because this is happening with 2 waves over a 24 hour period. If they are like ILN who's criteria(in part) is 8" in 24 hours, then it won't meet the criteria.

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