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December 15-17 Snow Potential


Hoosier
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20 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Euro south, almost similar to GFS. 

Storm cancel.. 

Went very strong with that shortwave across canada early on. That is going to be a major player with respect to height rises ahead of this system. Problem is it is in canada and its data sparse up there and unlike the main system, it isn't ever going to come into the US so that is going to be a question mark for a while.

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Went very strong with that shortwave across canada early on. That is going to be a major player with respect to height rises ahead of this system. Problem is it is in canada and its data sparse up there and unlike the main system, it isn't ever going to come into the US so that is going to be a question mark for a while.
I'm hoping this works out up here. The fact that even the Euro has been very unstable shows it's a tricky forecast. NWP experts would say that RAOB sampling isn't that big a deal for the models but anecdotally in the past several years it seems that better sampling really does help.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

I'm hoping this works out up here. The fact that even the Euro has been very unstable shows it's a tricky forecast. NWP experts would say that RAOB sampling isn't that big a deal for the models but anecdotally in the past several years it seems that better sampling really does help.

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Unfortunately NWP experts are going to say their models are infallible and most of the times they aren't going to be using them to forecast day to day. We have seen better sampling make a huge difference especially in situations like this where you have so many moving parts. I mean we have monster storm in the northeast, the ridge behind it, how much confluence ends up behind it, 2 systems in Canada and the main system itself which doesn't want to figure out if it's coming out all at once or in pieces. I really feel for you guys in NWS on this one because there are like 5 different outcomes and all could be right. Hell there are even a few GEFS members that bring rain almost to here. 

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm hoping this works out up here. The fact that even the Euro has been very unstable shows it's a tricky forecast. NWP experts would say that RAOB sampling isn't that big a deal for the models but anecdotally in the past several years it seems that better sampling really does help.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

To expand on what you guys had said, I don't know if EC has incorporated proper sampling data on the CMC or RGEM that far up north. If not, I'd expect alot of back and forth with the models till atleast tomorrow night. I know EC has limited data coverage away from major cities. 

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Unfortunately NWP experts are going to say their models are infallible and most of the times they aren't going to be using them to forecast day to day. We have seen better sampling make a huge difference especially in situations like this where you have so many moving parts. I mean we have monster storm in the northeast, the ridge behind it, how much confluence ends up behind it, 2 systems in Canada and the main system itself which doesn't want to figure out if it's coming out all at once or in pieces. I really feel for you guys in NWS on this one because there are like 5 different outcomes and all could be right. Hell there are even a few GEFS members that bring rain almost to here. 
The other problem we face is the ubiquity of the model data everywhere and the 'model-casts' the news stations run. So we put something out with a certain message and then for instance the 00z NAM comes out with a more aggressive solution than our forecast/forecast graphic and we get questions.

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5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The other problem we face is the ubiquity of the model data everywhere and the 'model-casts' the news stations run. So we put something out with a certain message and then for instance the 00z NAM comes out with a more aggressive solution than our forecast/forecast graphic and we get questions.

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Not to mention the weather apps and facebook groups galore. It's an uphill battle for sure. I mean at this point I have literally no confidence in this system and we are closing in on day 3 or less.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Not to mention the weather apps and facebook groups galore. It's an uphill battle for sure. I mean at this point I have literally no confidence in this system and we are closing in on day 3 or less.

I don't remember it being this bad a few years ago. Perhaps it might be somehow correlated with the North Pacific Pattern and the big "warm blob". 

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I don't remember it being this bad a few years ago. Perhaps it might be somehow correlated with the North Pacific Pattern and the big "warm blob". 

It doesn't seem like it sometimes, but the overall model skill/ability has improved compared to what it was several years ago.  The improvements are even more significant when compared to 15-20 years ago.  Stebo gave a good summary... unfortunately there are situations like this where there is a lot going on and it results in greater volatility in the model output.  

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It doesn't seem like it sometimes, but the overall model skill/ability has improved compared to what it was several years ago.  The improvements are even more significant when compared to 15-20 years ago.  Stebo gave a good summary... unfortunately there are situations like this where there is a lot going on and it results in greater volatility in the model output.  
I think because of technological advancement we expect more so we probably remember unusually well modeled systems in the past that were exceptions to the rule and say that it used to be better when in reality NWP is better than ever today.

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