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December 11 Frontal Wave Snow Event


WxUSAF
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I have a driveway that is 1/8 of a mile long straight and my snowblower is getting picked up tomorrow for service and a new carburetor (no joke).  You can thank me now for the impending boom from this storm!   Looks like I will be shoveling the equivalent of your neighborhood street by hand again!  You can't make this stuff up!!!

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GFS is the only model of the 00Z suite so far to show accumulating snow for my yard, and even that is a fringe job.   All the rest have anything greater than fractions of an inch to my S/SE, with that canonical precip minima from Cumberland east to here.

Fortunately almost every storm where snow moves in from the SW looks that way on models, but rarely ends up verifying that way.  Hoping for at least an inch to cover the grass.

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5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

GFS is the only model of the 00Z suite so far to show accumulating snow for my yard, and even that is a fringe job.   All the rest have anything greater than fractions of an inch to my S/SE, with that canonical precip minima from Cumberland east to here.

Fortunately almost every storm where snow moves in from the SW looks that way on models, but rarely ends up verifying that way.  Hoping for at least an inch to cover the grass.

Models have cut back on snow for us steadily each model run since last nights 00z runs. Hopefully there to aggressive pushing all the qpf to the east.

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Someone is gonna get a thump of snow with this. Not going to clog up this thread with (more) graphics, but the upper jet configuration is favorable over the region and there is going to be an area of forcing at 700 mb with banding/potential quick shot of heavier snow. Question is where exactly it occurs. 

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2 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Mesoscale Models are starting to converge on a 5-10 inch event across the 95 corridor

What other model other than HDERPS, which generally runs cold and is a weenie model, is showing that? When the Euro is showing what it's showing and the NAM shows the same, I know what I would be expecting tomorrow.

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