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Possible frontal wave snow


Zelocita Weather
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7 minutes ago, RichBailey said:

All surfaces covered in west Babylon. 
 

12 hours ago it was 60 degrees. 

 

Lots of people need to read that. 
 

 

Why? The comments about the snow not sticking on the pavement were for NYC with temperatures at 33 and 34 degrees. Long Island got heavy enough rates and temperatures falling to freezing. Like I said yesterday, this is why Long Island does better in rain to snow situations than NYC. But NYC can beat Long Island with snow changing to rain. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Why? The comments about the snow not sticking on the pavement were for NYC with temperatures at 33 and 34 degrees. Long Island got heavy enough rates and temperatures falling to freezing. Like I said yesterday, this is why Long Island does better in rain to snow situations than NYC. But NYC can beat Long Island with snow changing to rain. 

Official forecasts wobbled a bit in the area, but none had more than 1-3, and by this morning were calling for an inch or less. SHows we can't zero in during these kinds of events til they are on top of us. At least we are seeing some snow; some Decembers have been warm enough for tomato seedlings to pop up...

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Official forecasts wobbled a bit in the area, but none had more than 1-3, and by this morning were calling for an inch or less. SHows we can't zero in during these kinds of events til they are on top of us. At least we are seeing some snow; some Decembers have been warm enough for tomato seedlings to pop up...

Upton was rock steady out here with 1-3” in the forecast for the last 2+ days, and nailed the timing well in advance as well.  Good job by them ..

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1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Looks like about 3 inches here with enough to plow in the streets.  This would have been an enjoyable little event if only the pavement in Manhattan wasn't wet  ;)

Still snowing, temperature is 30.

Your snow doesnt count, silly. This is the ny metro forum, which is only the 5 boroughs. :P

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Official forecasts wobbled a bit in the area, but none had more than 1-3, and by this morning were calling for an inch or less. SHows we can't zero in during these kinds of events til they are on top of us. At least we are seeing some snow; some Decembers have been warm enough for tomato seedlings to pop up...

We could see the theme of the event from the weekend model forecasts. Most showed NYC falling to just above freezing. So you knew that if the rates were too low, there wouldn’t be that much accumulation even on colder surfaces. Those 10:1 snow charts are often overdone for areas that can’t fall to freezing when precipitation starts as rain. 

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This event was elevationally dependent as expected because of the slope of the thermal front.  As is typical, surface cooling lagged mid-level cooling substantially.  So elevated areas changed over and began accumulating much sooner than lower areas.  And lower/coastal areas had only a brief period of accumulating snow when temps. were marginal.  The problem with the snow maps isn't an issue of "sticking" with "warm ground."  The issue is that the algorithms tally up all modeled "snow QPF" and display that total.  Snow accumulation is different than total modeled precipitation in frozen form.

Moderate snow sticks at 33 or 34F with dense overcast.  Truly heavy snow sticks at almost any realistic temperature.  But even steady light snow typically requires <33F to accomplish more than coating the cars.  And the vast majority of snow obs. are light in any given winter.

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Overall this event was pretty well modeled even from several days out.  It was highly trackable and ended up like a standard, prototypical snow event for this area.  I'm glad a few spots hit 4", which had been suggested by the guidance as a possibility since last weekend.

It looks like it was a general c - 2 inches for the coast and river valleys with 2-5" above 400 feet or so.  

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