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Possible frontal wave snow


Zelocita Weather
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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Looks like maybe a few hours of moderate snow with temps at or above freezing, seems similar to the last event. Without heavy rates I don't see this doing much.

1-3 inches is a good chance for the city. Temps are going to be near freezing.

Let's hope for a nice bust.

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52 minutes ago, eduggs said:

850s are cold but the surface is still relatively warm (outside of elevated areas) and there is even an elevated warm layer.  Soundings also show a low level unstable layer.  There could also be a period of sleet.  I really hope future model runs stop decreasing QPF.  Heavier intensity precipitation will really help mix down the colder temps aloft.

This could be a classic short duration, high intensity "surprise" snowfall.  The low expectation events are sometimes the most fun when they break right.

These events can bust high  if they break right like you said. Sometimes the models underestimate the cold air.

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Like I said before... air temperature won't be much of a problem. If the ground surfaces are above freezing, then nothing will accumulate, say for car roofs. IMO, the snow will accumulate. It's a matter of how quickly that happens once we switch to snow. 

In other words... that thermometer I had buried died, and I forget where I put it. :facepalm:

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Just now, Snow88 said:

It doesnt even show it raining. It does look slightly better than the 12z run. Either it's going to verify or it's way off.

The snow maps might look a little better on the 18z NAM than the 12z for the immediate NYC area (due to a late burst) and possibly parts of NE, but overall the NAM was less robust in developing precip. on the NW side of the cold front and cut back QPF throughout the SE and MA.

I was hoping to see a more expansive precip. shield on the cold side - even an incipient baroclinic leaf - but the NAM is moving away from that scenario.  Sure a more robust solution might be warmer initially near the coast, but it would also likely increase the odds of a plowable event region wide.

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Yes the delayed onset of the "anafrontal" precip. compared to a guidance a day or two ago allows the atmosphere to cool on the NAM.  That has eliminated the sleet threat for now (layers above 850 are warm prior to 12z) and also allows the surface to cool to 34F or below almost everywhere.  Moderate snow will stick almost everywhere at 33F.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Another step down for the RDPS.  The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs.  But the axis of snow is favorable.  We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E.

 

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Another step down for the RDPS.  The 18z is slightly SE and noticeably drier than previous wet runs.  But the axis of snow is favorable.  We seem to be converging on a model consensus for between 0.2 and 0.4 frozen QPF between approx. 06z and 15z Wed. from NW to E.
Doesn't look drier. Looks like the snow shifted SE. Plus on the 12z it's still snowing. So I'm not sure it really cut back. Unless you are referring to your specific location.

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2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Doesn't look drier. Looks like the snow shifted SE. Plus on the 12z it's still snowing. So I'm not sure it really cut back. Unless you are referring to your specific location.

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The 06z and 12z had widespread 10+ mm snow QPF with pockets of ~18mm for a long swath from MD up through New England.  The  18z is widespread 6+ mm with an area of 10mm mostly in NE.  It's not a huge change but a step down from being on the wetter side of the envelope.  It has also shifted SE with the axis since yesterday.  The heaviest band is now close to the I-95 corridor and close to consensus.

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The 06z and 12z had widespread 10+ mm snow QPF with pockets of ~18mm for a long swath from MD up through New England.  The  18z is widespread 6+ mm with an area of 10mm mostly in NE.  It's not a huge change but a step down from being on the wetter side of the envelope.  It has also shifted SE with the axis since yesterday.  The heaviest band is now close to the I-95 corridor and close to consensus.
Yeah that's what I meant I think it just adjusted. Not that I would rely on the model but it did shift SE like others did.

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The RGEM was way too far west at 12Z and it tends to have an amped bias beyond 30-36 so I expected a tick SE over the course of the next few runs 
Do you find it odd that both the 12k & 3k are the most SE? I tend to trust the NAM in this time frame but do you think they are pushing the front too far SE as opposed to the rest of the models?

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